As Oil Prices Fall, Nigeria Must Plan Ahead
I am watching the price of crude oil and how it continues to fall. I hope you are paying attention as well, because in Nigeria, when oil prices move, the naira feels it at scale. Oil remains the anchor of our external revenues, and any sustained shift in price quickly transmits into the currency and the broader economy.
We must also consider the implications of a potential resolution of the Russia–Ukraine war and the return of Russian oil into the mainstream global market. If that supply comes back fully, it could further reshape global pricing dynamics and reset expectations.
Whatever decisions we make now, we must think through the consequences. Early next year, we may be heading toward new equilibrium points in energy markets, exchange rates, and fiscal balances. This is the moment for foresight.
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Indeed, this is a critical time for government to plan ahead, to anticipate scenarios, build buffers, and prepare policies that can absorb shocks and protect the economy as these shifts unfold. Why? Trump will like low energy cost to fight inflation as US midterm elections arrive next year.