US mortgage rates have recently fallen to multi-year lows. According to the latest data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.01%, down from 6.09% the previous week.
This marks the lowest level since September 2022; over 3 years ago, when it last dipped below 6%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.35%, down from 5.44% the week before. A year ago (around February 2025), the 30-year rate averaged around 6.85%, so this represents a meaningful decline of about 0.84 percentage points year-over-year.
This pullback improves affordability for homebuyers and has boosted refinance activity, with many recent homeowners able to lower their payments significantly. Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted that the lower rate environment is enhancing buyer affordability and strengthening homeowners’ financial positions.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab.
Note that while some headlines describe it as a “nearly 4-year low” or similar, the precise benchmark from Freddie Mac is since September 2022 roughly 3.5 years as of now. Daily rates from other sources like Zillow, Bankrate, or NerdWallet can vary slightly due to different methodologies and timing—some show averages in the mid-5% to low-6% range as of February 20-21—but the weekly Freddie Mac figure is the most widely referenced standard.
Rates remain in a relatively narrow band around 6% so far in 2026, influenced by factors like inflation trends, jobs data, and broader economic signals. Forecasts from groups like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest rates could hover near 6% or slightly above through much of the year.
Mortgage rate forecasts for the US, particularly the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, are primarily provided by major institutions like Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and others such as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) or National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
These forecasts are updated periodically often monthly or quarterly based on economic indicators like inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields especially the 10-year note, employment data, and broader economic growth.
As of February 2026 with the most recent major updates from January 2026 for Fannie Mae and late 2025 and early 2026 for MBA, the consensus points to rates stabilizing in the low- to mid-6% range for much of the year, with only modest further declines expected from current levels around 6.0-6.2%.
Expects rates to average around 6.1% in Q1 2026, then settle at 6.0% for Q2 through Q4. Rates hover near 6% through most of 2026, with a slight dip to around 5.9-6.0% by year-end or into 2027 in some outlooks. This reflects expectations of gradual economic cooling and limited additional Fed rate cuts.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Projects rates holding steady at approximately 6.1% throughout 2026, with some earlier views citing 6.4% averages for the year potentially reflecting more conservative assumptions. The MBA views rates as having largely bottomed out, remaining in the low- to mid-6% range into 2027 and even 2028, influenced by persistent inflation risks and steady growth.
Other notable mentions: Some aggregated expert views place 2026 averages between 6.0% and 6.4%, with groups like NAR or NAHB aligning closer to 6% or slightly above. Forecasts often see rates flat or ticking slightly lower to 5.9-6.2%, though some see minor upticks if economic strength persists.
Mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed’s federal funds rate—they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread typically 1.5-2% that accounts for credit risk, lender margins, and demand. Current forecasts assume:Moderate inflation control and limited further Fed easing perhaps 0-1 cuts in 2026.
A softening but not recessionary economy (unemployment rising mildly to ~4.4-4.6%). Potential volatility from policy changes. No dramatic drops expected, as much of the relief from 2023-2025 peaks (7%+) has already occurred. These are educated projections, not guarantees—rates can shift quickly with new data.
Recent weeks have seen actual rates dip to multi-year lows which aligns with or slightly beats some forecasts. If you’re planning to buy or refinance, compare personalized quotes from lenders, as your rate depends on credit, down payment, and other factors—shopping around can still yield meaningful differences even in a stable range.