This week kicks off the peak of Q4 2025 earnings season, with a heavy focus on Big Tech and the “Magnificent 7” stocks driving much of the attention. Investors are particularly watching for updates on AI investments, consumer spending trends, and forward guidance amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
Smaller but notable names like SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Brown & Brown (BRO), W.R. Berkley (WRB), and Ryanair (RYAAY).
Tuesday, January 27: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) – expect scrutiny on cloud growth, AI initiatives, and ad revenue.
Wednesday, January 28: Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), and potentially others like Boeing or IBM.
Tesla’s report could highlight EV demand and robotaxi progress, while Meta focuses on metaverse and ad metrics. Thursday, January 29: Apple (AAPL) and possibly Amazon (AMZN) – key themes include iPhone sales, services revenue for Apple, and e-commerce/AWS performance for Amazon.
Friday, January 30: Wrap-up with reports from companies like Chevron or Caterpillar, though less tech-heavy. Overall, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow over 15% in 2026, and this week’s results could set the tone for broader market sentiment.
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Other reports throughout the week include financials like Visa and chipmakers like AMD, adding to the mix. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with the policy decision and statement released at 2:00 PM ET on January 28, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference.
Current market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool shows a high probability of the fed funds rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% – estimates range from 88% to 96%, which is in line with your 99% figure, variations depend on the exact data snapshot and source.
A small minority prices in a 25 basis point cut, but no hike is expected. This reflects stable inflation data and a resilient jobs market, though any surprises in the dot plot or economic projections could move bonds and stocks.
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, officially the U.S. Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is one of the most market-moving economic releases each month. It measures the change in the number of paid U.S. workers during the prior month excluding farm workers, private household employees, and non-profits, along with the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and other labor details.
Why NFP Has Such a Big Impact
NFP is a key gauge of U.S. economic health and labor market strength. Markets react strongly because: It influences Federal Reserve policy — Strong job growth (high NFP) can signal overheating/inflation risks, potentially delaying rate cuts or supporting hikes. Weak numbers suggest cooling, boosting cut expectations.
It affects interest rate-sensitive assets — Bonds (yields often rise on strong data, fall on weak), stocks (risk-on/risk-off shifts), and the U.S. dollar (strong data strengthens USD via higher rates; weak weakens it). Volatility spikes around the release typically the first Friday at 8:30 AM ET, with whipsaws common as traders digest the headline figure, revisions, unemployment rate, and wages which tie into inflation.
In the context of the current busy week with major earnings and the January 27-28 FOMC meeting: The most recent NFP was released January 9, 2026 for December 2025 data, showing modest job gains around 50K-66K various sources report slight variations, e.g., consensus ~66K, actual close to expectations or slightly below in some reads.
This followed softer prior months and reflected a resilient but moderating labor market post-rate adjustments. The next NFP for January 2026 is scheduled for Friday, February 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET — not this week.
However, the lingering effects of the January 9 release are still relevant: It showed average hourly earnings up modestly ~0.3% MoM, unemployment steady/edge lower, and overall a picture of cooling but not collapsing demand. This helped reinforce market pricing for the current FOMC to hold rates steady (high probability, as noted).
Fed decision this week: With the January FOMC underway, officials likely viewed the recent December NFP as supportive of a “higher for longer” stance — not hot enough to force hikes, not weak enough to demand immediate easing. Any hawkish/dovish Powell comments Wednesday could amplify echoes of that jobs data.
Earnings overlap: Strong labor (implying solid consumer spending) can boost cyclical/tech stocks in reports while weak signals hurt. The recent NFP’s moderation may temper enthusiasm if companies cite hiring slowdowns.
Broader market reaction: USD pairs, Treasuries, and equity futures often see pre-FOMC positioning influenced by recent jobs strength. A “Goldilocks” jobs print not too hot/weak tends to support equities by keeping soft-landing hopes alive.