JPMorgan analysts have argued that Bitcoin could receive more relative price support than gold if hedging demand around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds declines.
In a recent research note led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank highlighted differences in investor positioning between the two assets that could favor Bitcoin under the right conditions.
Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted inflows following the Federal Reserve’s late July meeting, as the so-called debasement trade regained traction. Investors sought alternatives amid concerns over currency value and economic uncertainty.
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However, the recovery in flows has not been equal. Gold ETFs have fully clawed back their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half of theirs.
The more notable divergence, according to the analysts, appears in short interest and options positioning. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains close to its highest levels of the year.
By contrast, short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) sits below its historical average. The put-to-call open interest ratio is also higher for IBIT than for GLD, pointing to greater demand for downside protection and hedging activity around Bitcoin.
JPMorgan noted that this contrast suggests Bitcoin still faces a more skeptical overall positioning backdrop than gold, potentially due to elevated hedging demand despite recent inflows and futures positioning.
The bank concluded that the higher short interest in IBIT relative to GLD could create additional support for Bitcoin versus gold if that hedging demand is reduced.
Some reports have also referenced specific figures, such as roughly 45.93 million shares short in IBIT as of late August 2026, valued at about $2.05 billion and representing around 3.53 percent of the fund’s public float.
The recent softening in the debasement trade has been linked to rising inflation-adjusted bond yields and the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
Separately, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually triple the assets under management of gold ETFs over time, driven by generational wealth transfer and increasing institutional comfort as Bitcoin’s volatility declines.
Balchunas believes U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will eventually hold three times the assets of gold ETFs. The prediction, shared in a September 17, 2026 interview with Bitcoin Magazine and expanded on X, rests on demographics, maturing market behavior, and aggressive product marketing.
He stated,
“I think as the younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets.” He later elaborated on three key drivers.
First, Bitcoin ownership skews younger while gold remains more popular with older investors. Second, as Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation with other assets decline, large institutions will allocate more capital to it as a store of value.
Third, Bitcoin ETFs benefit from far greater sales energy and education efforts—dozens of wholesalers fluent in both crypto and traditional finance actively promote the products, whereas gold ETFs receive relatively little ongoing push.
Current market figures illustrate the gap that would need to close. As of mid-September 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs manage roughly $96 billion in assets and hold more than 1.25 million BTC. Global gold ETFs, by comparison, oversee approximately $615 billion.
Bitcoin products have grown rapidly since their January 2024 launch, but they still trail gold’s multi-decade head start by a wide margin. Balchunas is careful not to dismiss gold. In a follow-up post, he noted that the metal has existed for 5,000 years and appears hundreds of times in the Bible.
“I can’t not respect that,” he wrote. “I just think it will be lapped by bitcoin ETFs as a category long term.” He has previously compared Bitcoin to “gold as a teenager,” underscoring both its relative youth and its potential trajectory.
The prediction arrives against a backdrop of fluctuating flows. Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net inflows near $55 billion by mid-September 2026 after peaking higher earlier, while gold ETFs recorded strong inflows in August that pushed global assets and holdings to record levels.
While JPMorgan acknowledged that other factors will influence the future paths of both assets, the bank’s positioning-based view offers one lens through which market participants are assessing the relative near-term setups for Bitcoin and gold.