Prediction market traders remain skeptical that the U.S. government will acquire an ownership stake in OpenAI this year, even after reports that the artificial intelligence company proposed handing the Trump administration a 5% equity interest as part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with Washington.
According to data from prediction market platform Kalshi, traders assign less than a 30% probability that the U.S. government will acquire a stake in either OpenAI or rival AI developer Anthropic before the end of the year, suggesting investors remain unconvinced that negotiations will result in a deal anytime soon.
The market’s cautious outlook comes days after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI had proposed granting the federal government a 5% stake in the company. At OpenAI’s latest valuation of approximately $852 billion, such a holding would be worth more than $42 billion, making it one of the largest government equity positions ever contemplated in a private technology company.
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Kalshi’s event contract asks traders to predict which companies the U.S. government will take an ownership stake in before year-end. The market settles only after confirmation through official government announcements, regulatory filings or verified news reports.
Despite widespread discussion surrounding OpenAI’s proposal, traders continue to assign relatively low odds to any agreement materializing this year. The market reflects growing recognition that discussions about government ownership of strategic technology companies remain politically and legally complex, particularly when they involve firms at the center of the global artificial intelligence race.
Proposal Dates Back To 2025
The reported proposal is not new. According to a source familiar with the discussions cited by CNBC last month, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman first raised the possibility of giving the U.S. government an equity stake during discussions with the Trump administration in early 2025.
The reported proposal formed part of a broader concept under which the federal government could hold minority ownership interests in leading American AI companies through a sovereign investment vehicle, allowing the public to share in the financial gains generated by advances in artificial intelligence.
Supporters believe such a structure would align public and private interests while ensuring taxpayers benefit from technologies expected to reshape the global economy.
President Donald Trump declined to directly address the reported OpenAI discussions when questioned by CNBC last week. Instead, he pointed to the administration’s previous investment in semiconductor manufacturer Intel, highlighting it as an example of government intervention to support strategically important industries.
“Intel came in. They had a problem,” Trump said. “I said, ‘I can solve your problem, but I want 10% of the company.'”
The administration acquired a 10% stake in Intel following an $8.9 billion government investment announced last year as part of broader efforts to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
Trump has previously argued that government ownership stakes in critical technology companies allow Americans to become “partners” in industries that will define future economic growth.
Quantum Companies Seen As More Likely
While traders remain cautious on OpenAI, Kalshi participants see a significantly greater likelihood that the government will acquire stakes in companies operating in other strategic technologies.
The strongest expectations center on the quantum computing industry. Traders currently assign probabilities exceeding 60% that the government could take ownership stakes this year in Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries.
Those expectations are supported by policy announcements made earlier this year. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department announced plans to award approximately $2 billion in grants to nine quantum technology companies.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) subsequently indicated it intends to acquire minority, non-controlling equity stakes in participating companies, including Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and GlobalFoundries.
Unlike the reported OpenAI proposal, those investments already have publicly announced government backing, explaining why prediction market traders assign much higher probabilities to their completion.
Drone Manufacturers Also Attract Attention
Prediction markets also suggest moderate expectations that the government could acquire stakes in defense technology companies. The Wall Street Journal reported in May that the Trump administration had explored investment arrangements with drone manufacturers, including Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies, with some proposals reportedly involving government equity ownership.
Kalshi traders currently assign slightly above a 50% probability that the government will acquire a stake in Performance Drone Works before year-end.
The implied probability for Neros Technologies remains below 40%, indicating greater uncertainty over whether negotiations will result in an investment.
The growing number of prediction contracts indicates that the federal government is more willing to take direct financial interests in strategically important industries. Rather than relying solely on grants, subsidies and tax incentives, policymakers have shown greater willingness to pursue equity investments in sectors considered critical to national security, including semiconductors, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and advanced defense technologies.
If OpenAI’s proposal were eventually accepted, it would represent one of the most significant government investments in a private technology company and could establish a new model for public participation in America’s rapidly expanding AI industry.