Based on a Bloomberg report, U.S.-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi is indeed fielding new investment offers from venture capital firms, with proposed valuations reaching as high as $12 billion—or potentially even higher—according to sources familiar with the discussions.
This comes just weeks after the company closed a $300 million funding round on October 10, 2025, at a $5 billion valuation, co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital.
The rapid interest highlights explosive growth in the prediction markets sector, fueled by regulatory wins and expanding use cases. Kalshi, founded in 2018, operates under a federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license, allowing users to trade contracts on real-world events like elections, economic data releases, sports outcomes, and more.
In June 2025, Kalshi raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation, led by Paradigm. A landmark court victory in late 2024 enabled election-related contracts, boosting trading volumes to an annualized $50 billion as stated by co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour.
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In August, Robinhood integrated Kalshi for football prediction markets. This week (October 2025), the National Hockey League (NHL) announced multi-year deals with Kalshi and rival Polymarket—the first major U.S. sports league to officially partner with prediction platforms.
Discussions with VCs have floated valuations between $10 billion and $12 billion, reflecting bets on Kalshi’s scalability in a “crowded and fast-moving space.” One source noted the new capital could “strengthen Kalshi’s position” amid competition.
This isn’t isolated—prediction markets are in a valuation arms race: Rival Polymarket: Reportedly in talks for up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange at a $9 billion post-money valuation, up from $1 billion earlier in 2025.
Sports wagering alone is a multibillion-dollar industry, and regulated platforms like Kalshi are positioning for mainstream adoption via broker integrations and media rights. Overall, this signals maturing investor confidence in event-trading venues, though sustainability will depend on user retention and regulatory stability.
If deals close, it could reset benchmarks for fintech and crypto-adjacent startups. Kalshi’s rapid valuation jump from $5 billion to a potential $12 billion in weeks carries significant implications across financial markets, regulation, competition, and broader adoption of prediction markets.
The high valuation reflects growing investor confidence in prediction markets as a legitimate asset class, moving beyond niche crypto or gambling comparisons. Partnerships with major players like Robinhood and the NHL underscore this shift.
With Kalshi’s annualized trading volume at $50 billion and sports wagering already a massive industry, investors see prediction markets tapping into multibillion-dollar opportunities, potentially rivaling traditional betting or derivatives markets.
Polymarket’s parallel talks at a $9 billion valuation suggest a race for dominance. Kalshi’s CFTC license gives it a regulatory edge in the U.S., but Polymarket’s global reach and looser oversight creates a fragmented competitive landscape.
High valuations could trigger consolidation. Intercontinental Exchange’s interest in Polymarket and Kalshi’s VC talks hint at larger players (e.g., exchanges or fintech giants) eyeing acquisitions to control this emerging market.
Kalshi’s 2024 court win enabling election contracts sets a precedent, but rapid growth may invite scrutiny from the CFTC or SEC, especially if retail investor losses mount or markets are manipulated.
Global Ripple Effects: U.S. regulatory clarity could pressure other jurisdictions to define rules for prediction markets, potentially unlocking new markets or stifling innovation if regulations tighten.
The leap from $5 billion to $12 billion in weeks suggests speculative fervor, reminiscent of 2021 crypto or tech bubbles. If growth falters, valuations could face downward pressure, impacting investor confidence.
New funding could fuel Kalshi’s expansion (e.g., new contract types, international markets, or tech upgrades), but it also raises expectations for profitability and user growth in a crowded field.
Partnerships with Robinhood and the NHL signal prediction markets moving into everyday finance and entertainment. This could drive retail adoption, especially if integrated into popular trading apps or sports platforms.
Prediction markets’ ability to aggregate crowd wisdom could attract institutional users like hedge funds or pollsters, creating new revenue streams. High valuations assume sustained user growth and trading volume, but competition, regulatory shifts, or market saturation could undermine this.
Rapid growth demands robust infrastructure to handle trading volumes, prevent outages, and ensure compliance, all of which require significant investment. A $12 billion valuation would set a new bar for fintech startups, potentially spurring investment in adjacent sectors like DeFi or blockchain-based betting platforms.
While Kalshi operates in fiat, its success could bolster crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, driving hybrid models that blend regulated and decentralized approaches. Kalshi’s valuation surge signals a transformative moment for prediction markets, with implications for competition, regulation, and mainstream adoption.
However, the lofty $12 billion figure carries risks of overvaluation and regulatory backlash. If Kalshi capitalizes on its regulatory edge and partnerships, it could redefine event-based trading; if not, it risks becoming a cautionary tale of hype outpacing fundamentals.