Legitimacy Struggles and Populism at the Heart of the Osun LG Crisis

The crises in Nigeria’s local government system, which is the third tier of government, have evolved in various ways over the years. These challenges range from concerns about the effectiveness of the tier to demands from stakeholders for full autonomy from the state government. Stakeholders argue that significant development and growth can only occur if the local government is genuinely independent and free from external influence.

In this analysis, our analyst notes that the recent Osun Local Government (LG) crisis has further exposed the deep divisions within Nigeria’s political landscape. The conflict between the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) goes beyond the control of local governance structures; it is a battle over legitimacy and political survival. Analysis of 30 posts and comments published on Facebook between February 17 and 19, 2025 reveals legitimacy struggles and populist rhetoric as two key forces shaping Nigeria’s democracy at the local government level.

Legitimacy, in any political system, is the bedrock of governance. It is what gives a government the moral and legal authority to rule. However, in Osun’s LG crisis, both the PDP and APC claim legitimacy, leading to confusion, instability, and rising political tensions. A central issue in the crisis is the interpretation of court rulings. One argument holds that the Court of Appeal’s decision did not reinstate APC officials, while another insists that their resumption of office is lawful. This has created a vacuum where both parties claim to be the rightful authority, further deepening the legitimacy crisis. As one post puts it, “The Court of Appeal judgment in the PDP case does not confer any right on the sacked local government officials to return to office.”

Exhibit 1: Key Themes in 30 Posts and Comments

Elections are meant to confer legitimacy, but the October 2022 local government elections in Osun State remain disputed. PDP supporters argue that the elections lacked transparency, while APC claims it followed due process. The lack of a clear, uncontested election result erodes trust in governance and fuels public frustration. Meanwhile, the Osun State Independent Electoral Commission (OSSIEC), courts, and security agencies are caught in the middle of the struggle. Their actions are seen as either biased or inadequate, further undermining state institutions’ credibility. The result is a governance system where even court rulings fail to provide clear resolutions, deepening the legitimacy crisis.

When legitimacy is in doubt, populism often emerges as a dominant force. Political actors use populist narratives to mobilize their base, delegitimize opponents, and portray themselves as champions of the people. APC and PDP supporters frequently describe the other as an existential threat. One comment warns that “APC’s governance will tear the country apart”, while another describes PDP as “barbaric” and “violent.” This demonization of opponents escalates tensions and makes dialogue nearly impossible.

Many pro-PDP messages frame the party’s leader, Governor Ademola Adeleke, as divinely ordained to rule, asking God to “protect him from the hands of the wicked.” By invoking divine legitimacy, these messages make political opposition seem not just unlawful but immoral. On the APC side, some supporters accuse the PDP of orchestrating violence and call for divine justice against them, further inflaming emotions.

Political conflict is framed as a battle, with terms like “we dare them ahead,” “who blinks first,” and “PDP thugs arrested.” The use of militarized language normalizes the idea of violence as a political tool, raising fears of actual violence in future elections. A key populist strategy is controlling narratives through social media and misinformation. Posts about leaked audio, video evidence of armed supporters, and accusations of external interference create a climate of fear and suspicion. Whether true or false, these narratives shape public perception and further entrench divisions.

The dominance of legitimacy struggles and populism in the Osun LG crisis indicates broader issues in Nigerian politics. When political parties spend more time fighting over legitimacy than governing, citizens suffer. Basic local government functions such as public services, security, and community development are neglected. Elections are supposed to resolve political disputes, but in Osun, they have become a source of conflict. When parties refuse to accept electoral outcomes and resort to court battles and street mobilization, democracy is weakened.

The militarization of political speech increases the likelihood of actual violence. If leaders fail to de-escalate tensions, local conflicts could spiral into state-wide or national crises. To prevent legitimacy struggles and populism from completely overtaking governance in Osun and other Nigerian states, electoral and judicial reforms must be prioritized. Strengthening electoral processes to ensure transparency and reduce post-election conflicts is essential. Courts must also deliver clear and enforceable judgments that resolve disputes decisively.

Responsible political leadership is crucial. Political parties must prioritize governance over constant legal battles, and leaders must discourage violence and inflammatory rhetoric within their parties. Civic engagement and political education should be strengthened. Citizens must be educated on democratic processes to reduce susceptibility to populist manipulation. Encouraging community-led peace dialogues will help ease tensions and build trust.