Nasdaq has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch prediction market-style products, specifically binary “Outcome Related Options” tied to its flagship Nasdaq-100 Index and the Nasdaq-100 Micro Index.
This filing, submitted on March 2, 2026 via Nasdaq’s MRX options exchange, proposes cash-settled, yes-or-no binary contracts. These would be priced between $0.01 and $1, allowing traders to bet on whether specific events or conditions related to the Nasdaq-100 occur; directional moves or index-related outcomes.
If the condition is met, the contract pays out a fixed amount; otherwise, it expires worthless. This mirrors the structure of popular prediction platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket but is regulated under the SEC rather than the CFTC which oversees many event contracts.
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It’s Nasdaq’s first formal entry into this space, joining other Wall Street players like Cboe which has pursued similar binary bets and signals broader institutional interest amid booming prediction market volumes. The contracts focus on index-linked events, not broader topics like politics, sports, or culture.
Approval is pending from the SEC—no launch date yet, and the timeline depends on regulatory review. This comes as prediction markets explode in popularity with billions in trading volume, drawing in traditional finance firms seeking to capture event-driven trading, hedging, and speculation.
For instance, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen massive growth, and even exchanges like ICE have invested in the space. This reflects Wall Street’s push to mainstream “binary bets” on market outcomes, potentially integrating them into standard brokerage accounts while competing with crypto-native and CFTC-regulated platforms.
The Nasdaq-100 Index and its micro version represents a significant step in Wall Street’s embrace of prediction market mechanics. These cash-settled, fixed-payout contracts focus on index-linked events, such as directional moves or performance thresholds, rather than non-financial topics like politics or sports.
Traders gain simple, binary ways to express views on Nasdaq-100 outcomes (e.g., “Will the index close above X by expiration?”). This could appeal to retail and institutional users for precise risk management or directional bets, potentially integrating into standard brokerage accounts under SEC rules.
As SEC-regulated securities these could offer greater accessibility through existing stock/options platforms, with benefits like centralized clearing via OCC, transparency, real-time surveillance, and reduced counterparty risk.
Nasdaq’s scale and brand could draw more volume to prediction-style trading, especially among traditional finance participants wary of crypto-native or less-regulated platforms.
This filing follows similar moves by Cboe exploring binary options on financial benchmarks and signals Wall Street’s push into the space amid exploding volumes—prediction markets hit record highs. Nasdaq’s entry could legitimize and expand the category, attracting more institutional capital and driving innovation in event-driven derivatives.
By falling under SEC jurisdiction it highlights potential overlaps or coordination challenges between regulators. This could pressure platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket by offering a competing, highly regulated alternative focused on equity indices.
It positions Nasdaq to capture share from these players while competing with crypto exchanges entering similar products. Binary contracts on major indices could enhance hedging for tech-heavy portfolios and provide clearer market-implied probabilities for index-related events, potentially improving overall derivatives pricing and risk transfer.
Approval is not guaranteed—SEC review could take months, with possible modifications or rejection. If launched, it might face scrutiny over gambling-like features or market manipulation concerns. Competition could fragment liquidity initially, and broader prediction markets remain volatile amid regulatory uncertainty.
This move underscores prediction markets’ shift from niche/crypto to core financial infrastructure, with Nasdaq aiming to bridge traditional exchanges and the booming event-trading trend. If approved, it could reshape how investors bet on major market outcomes while intensifying rivalry across regulated and decentralized platforms.