Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.07 percent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The growth rate marked an improvement from the 3.76 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024, pointing to stronger year-end momentum. Full-year real GDP growth stood at 3.87 per cent in 2025, up from 3.38 per cent in 2024.
In nominal terms, GDP rose to N122.81 trillion in Q4 2025, representing a 17.55 percent increase from N104.48 trillion in Q4 2024, reflecting both real expansion and underlying price dynamics.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab.
The data show broad-based expansion across agriculture, industry, and services, with the services sector maintaining its dominant role in output composition.
Agriculture grew by 4.00 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, industry expanded by 3.88 per cent, while services rose by 4.15 per cent. Services accounted for 55.92 percent of total GDP in the quarter, reinforcing its position as the primary engine of economic activity.
Average daily crude oil production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the 1.54 million barrels per day recorded in Q4 2024 but below the 1.64 million barrels per day posted in Q3 2025.
Oil recovery lifts annual growth, but volatility persists
The oil sector recorded real year-on-year growth of 6.79 per cent in Q4 2025, a sharp improvement from 2.08 per cent in Q4 2024 and 0.95 percentage points higher than Q3 2025. For the full year, oil sector growth reached 8.50 percent, compared to 5.54 percent in 2024.
However, quarter-on-quarter data show that the oil sector contracted by 6.30 per cent in Q4 2025, underscoring continued volatility in output. While production improved on an annual basis, it remained sensitive to operational and structural constraints.
Oil contributed 2.87 percent to total real GDP in Q4 2025, compared to 2.80 percent in Q4 2024 and 3.44 percent in Q3 2025. For the full year, the sector accounted for 3.53 percent of GDP, slightly above 3.38 percent in 2024. These figures confirm that, although oil remains strategically important for fiscal revenues and foreign exchange, its direct contribution to GDP remains relatively small.
The non-oil sector continued to anchor the economy. It grew by 3.99 percent in real terms in Q4 2025, up from 3.80 percent in Q4 2024 and 3.91 percent in Q3 2025. In real terms, the non-oil sector accounted for 97.13 percent of GDP in the quarter and 96.47 percent for the full year.
Growth within the non-oil economy was driven by crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, financial institutions, construction, road transport, and food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing. The breadth of these drivers suggests that domestic demand and services-led activity remain central to Nigeria’s expansion.
Medium-term outlook
The latest data have reinforced cautious optimism among multilateral institutions. The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026. The World Bank has maintained a 4.4 percent growth forecast for 2027 and upgraded its 2026 projection to 4.4 percent from 3.7 percent estimated in June 2025.
The Q4 performance indicates improving macroeconomic traction, particularly with oil sector recovery and sustained non-oil resilience. However, the composition of growth highlights ongoing structural realities: services dominate output, oil remains volatile, and agriculture continues to serve as a stabilizing base.
Sustaining growth above 4 percent will likely depend on maintaining oil production stability, deepening industrial capacity, strengthening export diversification, and managing inflation and currency pressures that influence real purchasing power and investment.
The fourth-quarter figures suggest that Nigeria closed 2025 on firmer footing than the previous year, with incremental gains across sectors supporting a gradual strengthening of economic momentum.