Nigeria’s crude oil production suffered a setback in February 2025, as the country failed to sustain the momentum from its recent output increase. Data from the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that the country’s daily average crude oil production declined by about five percent compared to January, raising fresh concerns about the country’s ability to maintain its OPEC production target.
The latest figures indicate that Nigeria’s crude oil production for February stood at an average of 1,465,006 barrels per day (bpd), down from the 1,538,697 bpd recorded in January. Although the drop appears relatively small, it represents a significant reversal of the steady gains recorded in previous months, fueling worries about the country’s long-standing production challenges.
The February output fell short of Nigeria’s allocated OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with the NUPRC report noting that the country only managed to achieve 98 percent of the required production. The inability to sustain that momentum suggests Nigeria remains vulnerable to operational and structural issues within its oil sector.
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The data further revealed that despite the drop in average output, Nigeria recorded a peak production of 1.7 million barrels per day in February, while the lowest daily production was 1.6 million barrels per day. However, these figures include condensates, which are not considered part of Nigeria’s crude oil production by OPEC. When condensates are factored in, Nigeria’s total daily average production in February stood at 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising 1,465,006 barrels per day of crude oil and 206,948 barrels per day of condensates.
The overall crude oil production for February amounted to 41,020,155 barrels, marking a decline from January’s total output of 47,699,593 barrels. The February production also included 1,599,693 barrels of blended condensates and 4,194,849 barrels of unblended condensates. These figures were lower than those recorded in January when Nigeria produced 1,910,213 barrels of blended condensates and 4,252,071 barrels of unblended condensates.
The drop in output was reflected across the country’s major oil terminals, further underscoring the challenges affecting Nigeria’s oil production capacity. Forcados Terminal, which had the highest production, recorded 7.75 million barrels in February, down from 8.86 million barrels in January. Bonny Terminal, another major production hub, saw its output decline to 6.3 million barrels in February from 8.1 million barrels the previous month. Qua Iboe Terminal’s production also dropped, with 4.28 million barrels produced in February compared to 4.6 million barrels in January. Escravos Terminal recorded a decline as well, producing 3.87 million barrels in February, down from 4.48 million barrels in the preceding month. Similarly, Odudu Terminal’s output dropped to 2 million barrels in February from 2.3 million barrels in January, while Tulja–Okwuibome Terminal produced 1.89 million barrels in February, a decrease from 2.26 million barrels in January. These figures include both crude oil and condensates.
The latest drop in production comes at a time when Nigeria had been striving to restore investor confidence in its oil sector and strengthen revenue generation through increased output. The country has battled persistent challenges such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, regulatory uncertainties, and underinvestment in upstream projects. While recent efforts by the government and security agencies have helped to curb some of these issues, the February figures indicate that the industry has yet to achieve sustained production stability.
The decline in oil output raises questions about Nigeria’s ability to meet its budgetary and revenue targets, particularly as oil remains the country’s main source of foreign exchange earnings. The setback also affects Nigeria’s standing within OPEC, where member countries are expected to adhere to production quotas as part of broader efforts to stabilize global oil prices. Although a Reuters survey had suggested that Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota in February, the NUPRC data contradicts that claim, indicating that the country is still struggling to maintain a consistent production level.
The oil industry will now be looking ahead to OPEC’s upcoming Monthly Oil Market Report for February, which will provide a broader perspective on Nigeria’s performance relative to other oil-producing nations. The volatility of the global oil market, influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, means that any decline in production could impact Nigeria’s economy.
Energy experts have pointed out that for Nigeria to achieve sustained growth in crude oil output, the government must address critical bottlenecks in the sector. There is an urgent need for improved infrastructure, enhanced security around oil facilities, and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework to attract both international and indigenous oil producers. Without these measures, analysts believe Nigeria risks falling further behind its production targets, limiting its ability to capitalize on global oil market trends.