Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed markedly to 14.45% in November 2025, down from 16.05% in October, signaling a notable easing in price pressures after a prolonged period of elevated inflation.
The latest figures, released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, one of the sharpest disinflationary moves recorded this year. The data also indicate a slowdown compared with November last year, though the NBS cautioned that the year-on-year comparison reflects a different base year, November 2009, following the recent rebasing of inflation data.
On a month-on-month basis, however, inflation dynamics remain mixed. The NBS said headline inflation rose by 1.22% in November, higher than the 0.93% recorded in October. This suggests that while annual inflation is cooling, prices are still rising at a faster pace within the month.
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“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22%, which was 0.29% higher than the rate recorded in October 2025,” the statistics agency said, noting that the average price level increased faster in November than in the preceding month.
Urban and rural price trends diverge
The moderation was evident across both urban and rural areas, though the pace of decline differed.
Urban inflation stood at 13.61% year-on-year in November 2025, a steep drop of 23.49 percentage points from the 37.10% recorded in November 2024. Month-on-month, urban inflation eased to 0.95%, down from 1.14% in October, pointing to some relief in city price pressures. The 12-month average urban inflation rate fell to 20.80%, compared with 35.07% a year earlier.
In rural areas, year-on-year inflation came in at 15.15%, down from 32.27% in November 2024. While still higher than the urban rate, the decline of 17.12 percentage points reflects easing pressures in food-producing and semi-urban communities, where inflation had been particularly severe over the past two years.
Food inflation cools sharply, but prices are still rising
Food inflation, a key driver of household hardship, slowed significantly to 11.08% year-on-year in November 2025, from 39.93% in the same month last year. The NBS attributed much of this dramatic drop to the change in the base year rather than a broad-based collapse in food prices.
Indeed, the agency noted that several staple items continued to record price increases during the month. These included dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, unshelled melon (egusi), oxtail, and fresh onions, underscoring the reality that many Nigerians are yet to feel tangible relief at the markets.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, stood at 18.04% year-on-year in November. This suggests that underlying price pressures linked to transport, housing, healthcare, and services remain elevated, even as headline numbers ease.
Policy backdrop and lingering doubts
The latest data land against the backdrop of an ambitious inflation target set by President Bola Tinubu. In December 2025, while presenting the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly, Tinubu pledged to bring inflation down from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2025.
“The 2025 budget projects that inflation will decline significantly from the current 34.6% to 15% by the end of next year,” the president said at the time.
While November’s reading of 14.45% appears, on the surface, to put that target within reach, economists have been cautious in interpreting the figures. Several analysts argue that base effects from the rebasing exercise are doing much of the heavy lifting, warning that structural drivers of inflation—such as exchange rate volatility, high energy costs, insecurity affecting food supply, and elevated transport expenses—have not been significantly addressed to yield the needed result.
In recent months, some economists have also called for a reassessment of monetary policy, noting that consecutive declines in headline inflation could strengthen the case for easing the Monetary Policy Rate. Others counter that the higher month-on-month inflation rate and stubborn core inflation suggest it may be too early for the Central Bank of Nigeria to declare victory.
For households and businesses, the key question remains whether the statistical slowdown will translate into sustained affordability. Currently, the data point to easing pressure, but not yet to a return to comfort, as prices continue to rise even if at a slower annual pace.