Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped slightly to 23.71% in April 2025, a marginal improvement from the 24.23% recorded in March, according to fresh data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.
This represents a modest 0.52 percentage point decline and marks another month of slowdown in the inflation rate, suggesting a possible easing of price pressures, albeit at a fragile pace.
On a year-on-year basis, the latest figure shows a sharp 9.99 percentage point decline from 33.69% in April 2024, a change attributed in part to a base-year revision in the inflation calculation methodology — now benchmarked to November 2009 = 100.
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Food Inflation Plummets on Paper – But Not in Markets
Though the easing may be viewed as a positive development, it comes amid continued economic hardship, high energy costs, and stagnant incomes. Prices remain significantly elevated, and the reality in markets tells a different story. Despite the statistical decline, many Nigerians say they have not felt any relief in the cost of food, transport, and other essentials.
One of the standout figures in the NBS report is the sharp drop in food inflation, which fell to 21.26% year-on-year in April 2025, down from a staggering 40.53% in April 2024 — a 19.27 percentage point decline. But this sharp fall is not due to a substantial drop in food prices, but rather what the NBS described as a “base-year effect” due to changes in the inflation methodology.
On a month-to-month basis, food inflation was marginally lower, declining by 2.06% in April from 2.18% in March, indicating that prices are still rising but at a slightly slower pace.
The NBS attributed the moderation in food prices to declines in staple items such as maize flour, wheat grain, dried okro, yam flour, soya beans, rice, bambara beans, and brown beans — although there is growing skepticism among consumers, many of whom continue to report that food prices are either stable or still climbing in open markets.
Core and Rural Inflation Show Similar Trends
The report also showed that Core Inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, fell to 23.39% year-on-year in April, down from 26.84% in the same month last year. On a monthly basis, core inflation declined to 1.34%, a sharp drop from 3.73% in March.
Urban inflation dropped to 24.29% year-on-year from 36.00%, while rural inflation slowed to 22.83% from 31.64%, further reflecting the base-effect-driven trend.
Despite these reductions, the average twelve-month urban inflation stood at 30.41%, slightly higher than 30.02% in April 2024. Rural inflation averaged 26.29%, a slight drop from 26.38% last year.
Economic analysts were not surprised by the April data. Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, told NairaMetrics that the moderation was “expected due to a favorable base effect.”
“April 2024 marked a significant inflationary peak. On a year-on-year basis, this will create a downward bias even if prices continue to trend upward on a monthly basis,” he explained.
In other words, inflation is not necessarily easing due to improvements in supply or macroeconomic reforms, but simply because the rate of change is being measured against an unusually high figure from last year.
What’s Fueling Inflation in Nigeria?
Despite the month-on-month decline, key sectors are still driving inflation. The NBS identified the following categories as the biggest contributors to headline inflation on a year-on-year basis:
- Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages – 9.49%
- Restaurants and Accommodation Services – 3.06%
- Transport – 2.53%
- Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels – 2.00%
These categories continue to suffer from the ripple effects of Nigeria’s foreign exchange volatility, logistics bottlenecks, and broader macroeconomic instability.
Policy Outlook: All Eyes on the CBN
The new inflation figures come just ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 300th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled for next week. While the slight decline in inflation may seem encouraging, it is unlikely to be enough to prompt a change in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which currently sits at 24.75%, its highest level in decades.
Many economists have argued that raising the MPR has done little to curb cost-push inflation, which is largely driven by structural problems like fuel costs, insecurity, and import dependence.
Recent months have seen calls from business leaders and trade unions urging the CBN to reconsider its hawkish monetary stance, especially as access to credit becomes more difficult and local businesses struggle with high input costs.
Disconnect Between Data and Reality
While the official statistics suggest a cooling in inflation, the story on the ground is starkly different. Nigerians are grappling with high transport fares, unaffordable rent, and food prices that remain stubbornly high. Many question whether the inflation methodology truly reflects economic reality.
This persistent disconnect between macroeconomic data and consumer experiences is expected to continue to test public trust in official figures and place added pressure on policymakers to deliver more than just statistical relief.