OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming phased oil output increases from April 2026, three sources from within the group told Reuters on Wednesday, as the alliance prepares for rising summer demand and seeks to regain market share lost to sanctioned producers and constrained output elsewhere.
The eight key OPEC+ producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—are scheduled to meet on March 1 to review market conditions and quotas. All three OPEC+ sources indicated the group is tilting toward restarting increases in April. Three additional sources familiar with OPEC+ deliberations expressed similar expectations. No final decision has been made, and discussions will continue in the coming weeks, two of the sources said.
OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The eight members had raised production quotas by 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from April to December 2025—equivalent to roughly 3% of global demand—before freezing further planned increases for January through March 2026 due to seasonally weaker consumption.
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Resuming increases would allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have maintained voluntary cuts beyond formal quotas to support prices, to reclaim market share from sanctioned producers like Russia and Iran, as well as Kazakhstan, which has been hampered by repeated pipeline constraints and field maintenance issues.
Brent crude futures are trading near $68 per barrel, close to a six-month high of $71.89 reached in January on heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. Despite earlier fears of a 2026 supply glut suppressing prices, the market has remained supported by geopolitical risk premiums, steady demand recovery in Asia, and disciplined OPEC+ supply management.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, asked about potential quota increases, told reporters last week that delegates expect demand to rise gradually from March and April: “Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing. This will be an additional factor to ensure the balance.”
OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report forecasts demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter of 2026 falling by 400,000 bpd from the first quarter but projects full-year demand 600,000 bpd higher than in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 bpd—still above 2025’s 770,000 bpd growth—citing slower economic momentum in some regions offset by resilient transport fuel demand.
The potential resumption comes as OPEC+ continues to manage a complex landscape. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have voluntarily withheld additional output to support prices, while Russia and Iran face Western sanctions that limit their effective output and market access. Kazakhstan has struggled with pipeline constraints and field maintenance issues, reducing its ability to fully utilize allocated quotas.
Brent’s stability near six-month highs reflects a combination of factors: geopolitical risk premiums tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, steady demand recovery in Asia, and disciplined OPEC+ supply management. Earlier fears of a 2026 supply glut have eased as non-OPEC+ production growth (led by the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana) has moderated, while demand has proven more resilient than anticipated.
A resumption of increases would aim to balance the market ahead of peak summer demand while allowing compliant members to regain share from sanctioned or constrained producers. However, any decision will depend on updated demand forecasts, inventory levels, non-OPEC supply trends, and geopolitical developments.
The March 1 meeting will be closely watched as a signal of OPEC+’s confidence in the demand outlook and its willingness to prioritize market share over short-term price maximization. With Brent holding above $68 and summer driving season approaching, the group appears poised to gradually unwind restraint, provided macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions remain supportive. OPEC+ collectively pumps about half of the global oil supply, giving its decisions outsized influence on prices. The potential shift from freeze to modest increases would reinforce the group’s flexible, consensus-driven approach to balancing supply with demand in an uncertain global environment.
However, market participants note that any resumption would likely be gradual and data-dependent, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely to retain some voluntary cuts to maintain price support. Energy analysts expect the interplay between OPEC+ policy, U.S.-Iran tensions, and non-OPEC supply dynamics to remain central to oil price formation through 2026.