The World Bank has maintained its earlier projection that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, even as it trimmed its global forecast due to mounting trade tensions and rising uncertainty in international markets.

In its Global Economic Prospects report released Tuesday, the Bank revised its 2025 global growth outlook downward to 2.3 percent, a 0.4 percentage point cut from its January estimate. It cited “higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty” as critical drags on global trade, investment, and supply chains.

Despite this more pessimistic global tone, the Bank said Nigeria’s economic momentum is expected to hold steady, bolstered by ongoing reforms and rising investment in service sectors such as financial services and ICT. It reaffirmed that domestic growth would accelerate from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2024 to 3.6 percent in 2025, and average 3.8 percent from 2026 through 2027.

“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology,” the Bank said. “Services activity will continue to be the main driver of growth, while the industrial sector will remain constrained by subdued crude oil production.”

The Bank’s outlook also suggests gradual inflation easing, as monetary tightening implemented in 2024 — in response to the naira’s rapid depreciation — begins to take effect. Inflation has remained elevated in Nigeria, driven by exchange rate volatility, fuel subsidy removal, and rising food costs. However, tighter policy and structural reforms are expected to moderate price growth in the coming year.

Limited Impact of Global Trade Tensions

While the World Bank expects escalating trade tensions between major powers like the United States and China to dampen global output, it downplayed the immediate impact on Nigeria and much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The report noted that the region’s limited integration into global manufacturing supply chains offers some insulation from direct trade fragmentation.

“The direct impact on SSA growth of further escalation in global trade tensions may be contained owing to the limited direct exposure to export markets in China and the United States, apart from commodity demand,” the report said.

That said, Nigeria remains vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, particularly a downturn in crude oil or mineral exports linked to any broader slowdown in China — one of Africa’s largest commodity trading partners. A steeper-than-expected slowdown in China would shrink demand for minerals and metals, with ripple effects across SSA economies dependent on extractive exports.

Growth Too Weak to Cut Poverty

While Nigeria’s macro outlook appears stable, the Bank warned that the region’s per capita income growth — including Nigeria’s — remains weak. It forecasts average per capita gains of just 1.6 percent between 2025 and 2027, far too low to make meaningful progress in lifting people out of poverty.

“This pace would mean that, in terms of living standards, the region would fall even further behind other emerging markets and developing economies, excluding China and India,” the Bank noted. “These per capita income gains will remain inadequate for significantly reducing extreme poverty in the region.”

Sub-Saharan Africa still hosts the majority of the world’s poorest people, and the Bank emphasized that sustained improvement in welfare would require faster income growth, greater investment in social infrastructure, and more inclusive economic planning.

Mounting Risks from Insecurity and Climate Shocks

The report also flagged rising insecurity, climate shocks, and limited fiscal space as key threats to long-term growth. It noted that persistent violence across parts of the region, including Nigeria, continues to weigh heavily on investment, agricultural productivity, and household welfare.

Meanwhile, the economic toll from worsening weather events — floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall — is rising sharply.

“The share of the population affected by adverse weather events, which destroy crops and dampen economic activity, has increased sharply in recent years,” the Bank warned.

Even though public debt levels are projected to ease moderately, high debt servicing costs remain a concern. Nigeria and many of its regional peers are struggling with limited fiscal space for development-related spending, particularly after a recent rise in sovereign spreads increased borrowing costs.

Foreign aid inflows are also shrinking, putting more pressure on national budgets. “Further declines in official development assistance inflows risk worsening humanitarian and fiscal challenges,” the report said.

Conversely, the World Bank’s decision to maintain Nigeria’s growth projection at 3.6 percent signals cautious optimism. However, the Bank’s warning that current growth remains inadequate to reduce poverty underlines economists’ warning that macro stability alone will not solve Nigeria’s deeper development challenges.

African pay-TV giant Multichoice Group has confirmed that its Nigerian operations shed a staggering 1.4 million subscribers between 2023 and 2025, marking one of the most significant contractions for the company in any single market.

The development, disclosed Wednesday in its audited results for the financial year ended March 31, 2025, underscores the intensifying financial pressure on households in one of Africa’s largest economies.

This follows an increase in the prices of Multichoice’s DStv and GOtv subscription packages three times within the two-year period. The Group, in its report, blamed several structural and economic factors—most notably high inflation, repeated power grid failures, and widespread fuel scarcity—for the downturn in its Nigerian customer base.

But beyond those operational and infrastructural issues, analysts say the real drag is Nigeria’s harsh economic reality, which has steadily pushed pay TV off the list of essential household spending.

Multichoice’s earnings report lends weight to that perspective. According to the company, Nigeria accounted for 77% of the total 1.8 million subscribers lost across its Rest of Africa (RoA) operations during the review period. The RoA subscriber base dropped from 9.3 million in 2023 to 7.5 million in 2025.

“Inflation across key markets remained high (around 20% on a weighted average basis, above 30% in Nigeria and Angola) and caused pressure on customer spending,” Multichoice wrote in its report.

The economic downturn has deeply affected consumer behavior. A combination of job losses, reduced disposable income, and rising prices of food, fuel, and other essentials has made entertainment spending increasingly unsustainable for many Nigerian families.

While the company continues to lose customers, the rate of decline has shown some moderation. In 2024, Multichoice’s RoA subscriber base fell by 1.2 million—from 9.3 million to 8.1 million—a 13% drop. That pace slowed in 2025, with the base declining by 600,000 to 7.5 million, representing a 7% decrease.

However, Nigeria’s share of the loss remains disproportionately large. According to the company, the country alone contributed over half of the 2025 decline.

“Subscriber activity was further affected by power shortages across Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi, ongoing power and fuel shortages in Nigeria, and civil unrest in Mozambique,” the Group added.

Multiple Price Hikes Deepened Consumer Resentment

Even as incomes shrank, Multichoice Nigeria increased its subscription prices three times in the last two years—a strategy many say worsened its attrition problem. The company first hiked prices in April 2023, followed by another increase in November of the same year. A third increase was announced in April 2024 and implemented on May 1.

These price hikes sparked outrage among Nigerian subscribers and consumer protection groups, many of whom argued that the increases were unjustifiable given the worsening quality of service and economic hardship.

While the company has not announced another increase, many observers expect that Multichoice could consider it again, given ongoing currency pressures and a shrinking revenue base. But analysts warn that another hike could trigger even more losses.

Group Financial Performance Under Pressure

The toll from Nigeria and other African markets is clearly visible in Multichoice Group’s broader financials. Revenue for the 2025 financial year fell by ZAR5.2 billion (about 9%) to ZAR50.8 billion, mainly due to an 11% drop in subscription revenue driven by currency depreciation and lower subscriber volumes.

Trading profit dropped 49% year-on-year, down from ZAR3.8 billion to ZAR4.0 billion. A significant part of this came from a ZAR2.3 billion loss at its streaming arm, Showmax, and a ZAR5.2 billion foreign exchange loss.

“The past two financial years have been a period of significant financial disruption for economies, corporates and consumers across sub-Saharan Africa,” the company stated in its executive summary, adding that “macroeconomic pressures, piracy, social media, and cheaper streaming alternatives” had materially impacted overall performance.

A Shifting Landscape for Pay-TV in Africa

Multichoice’s struggles highlight a broader challenge for legacy pay-TV providers across Africa. As streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Prime expand into African markets and data costs fall, traditional satellite and cable TV face increasing competition—not just in pricing, but also in content accessibility and flexibility.

However, for now, affordability remains king.

With the customer base still in decline and macroeconomic conditions unlikely to improve soon, the big question remains whether Multichoice can adapt fast enough to retain relevance in one of its most strategic, yet most volatile markets.