Oil prices tumbled and stocks rose sharply in Asian trading early Tuesday after President Donald Trump declared a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, claiming an end to nearly two weeks of military escalation.

At 8:48 p.m. ET Monday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3.6% to $66.04, and Brent crude dropped to $68.93, also down 3.6%. The retreat followed a 7.2% plunge on Monday, bringing oil prices below levels seen before Israel’s initial strike on Iran on June 13.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures rallied, with investors seemingly betting that geopolitical tensions would ease:

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% to 6,077.07
• Dow futures climbed 0.5% to 42,895.05
• Nasdaq futures jumped 0.8% to 22,075.67

Markets defied what should have been a jarring development: the United States’ entry into the conflict with direct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. On Sunday, Trump ordered bombings on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—marking a sharp escalation in America’s military involvement.

The move surprised many, especially after Trump had just days earlier suggested diplomacy could resolve tensions within two weeks. But despite this major development, analysts interpreted the U.S. action as calculated and limited, rather than a prelude to full-blown war.

“The market is downplaying escalation risks, viewing the U.S. strike as a tactical move rather than the start of open-ended conflict,” analysts at Rystad Energy wrote.

That perception was reinforced after Iran’s measured retaliation—a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar that resulted in no reported casualties and was largely intercepted, according to U.S. and Qatari officials. The restrained response fueled speculation that Iran was signaling a willingness to de-escalate.

“The attack on Qatar suggests a desire by Iran to save face without provoking a broader conflict,” Rystad noted.

But Is There Really a Ceasefire?

Hours after Trump’s ceasefire announcement on Truth Social, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi threw cold water on the claim, stating there was “no agreement” on a ceasefire. He added that Iran would only stop retaliatory attacks if Israel ceased its “illegal aggression” by 4 a.m. local time Tuesday (00:30 GMT).

In the meantime, Iran launched a fresh round of missiles at Israel, striking the southern city of Beersheba and reportedly killing at least three people, according to Israeli media. This latest attack raises serious doubts about whether Trump’s truce announcement is credible or enforceable.

The ceasefire was supposed to be implemented in stages, according to Trump, and marked what he called the end of the “12-day war.” But developments on the ground suggest there is still no formal, coordinated ceasefire involving all parties.

“This is still a very fluid and fragile situation,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. “Any spark could reignite a broader confrontation.”

Oil Markets Cautiously Watch the Strait of Hormuz

Despite the violence, oil prices fell as traders took comfort in the fact that Iran has not moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about 20% of global oil supply and 25% of liquefied natural gas trade pass.

“The waterway handles significant volumes for global markets and its importance cannot be understated,” added Janiv Shah, a vice president of oil markets analysis at Rystad Energy.

However, analysts caution that the risk remains. The Iranian parliament has endorsed a move to shut the strait, though any final decision would rest with the country’s Supreme National Security Council.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China, Iran’s top oil customer, to intervene and urge restraint. Rubio warned that it would be “economic suicide” for Tehran to block Hormuz.

“We retain options to deal with that,” Rubio said, suggesting U.S. naval forces could intervene if shipping is disrupted.

For now, oil markets are banking on a pause, driven by tactical restraint and hopes that diplomacy might still prevail. But the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran’s latest attacks on Israeli civilians, and the absence of a verified ceasefire agreement leave the region on edge.

Analysts believe that there are too many conflicting signals to say with confidence that this crisis is over.

If Iran follows through on threats to close Hormuz—or if Israel launches another retaliatory strike—markets could reverse course quickly, triggering spikes in oil prices and volatility across global equities.

This means that the gap between market optimism and on-the-ground reality remains uncomfortably wide.

Elon Musk is his generation’s finest innovator. But he is not there because he makes great physical products like SpaceX rockets, Tesla cars, etc. The best part of Musk’s business is in pricing. Since Bill Gates changed the ordinance on how software is priced in the late 1970s, away from giving it free for hardware contracts as IBM was doing, no other person has brought better ideas than Musk on pricing physical things.

Musk launched Tesla. And if he had kept Toyota, Ford and GM’s pricing models, the company would have failed. What did Musk do? He invented a software pricing framework for a car which means you never finish paying for your Tesla. Indeed, there are subscriptions here and there to the extent that if you should sell the car, the next owner will still need to get in touch with Tesla to activate something.

Contrast with your Toyota, once you pay 100% and leave the dealer with the car, you have forever paid, and Toyota will not get anything from you again. Tesla has recurring revenue like software while other car brands are one-off like your old Nokia phone. That explains the higher multiples investors use in Tesla stock valuation as a Tesla car could be earning revenue for Tesla Inc until it goes to the landfill. Other car companies do not have that ability.

Musk is extending that pricing sagacity into the fledgling era of autonomous taxis: “Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi debut kicked off Sunday in Austin, Texas — and with it came not just a successful technical demonstration, but a pricing shockwave that could redefine the ride-hailing market. Offering autonomous rides for just $4.20 flat, Tesla’s entry is now being touted as a potential category killer that could disrupt incumbents like Uber and Lyft, whose fares in the area typically range from $25 to $40 per trip. “

Did you read that? Flat fee! Who will use Uber and Lyft if you have a brand that offers you a flat fee? Why is Tesla doing this? Total vertical integration as Tesla owns and makes the cars, and that means it can use the one oasis strategy to milk the system. In other words, Tesla can get carbon credit of $2 per trip and when everything is computed, it would be fine financially because there are oil companies and other EU car companies waiting to buy those carbon credits. (Tesla generates $billions by selling carbon credits on all cars sold!)

Uber and co are in trouble. And Google Waymo is also in trouble even though Google has big wallets to compete with Tesla, but this competition is not symmetric since Tesla makes its cars while Google only retrofits. And with that, Musk and team can even expand the flat fee framework.

Comment on Feed

Musk didn’t just disrupt industries, he rewrote the rules of value capture.
Other CEOs: ‘How do we make cars cheaper?’
Elon: ‘How do we charge customers forever?’
And just like that… the auto industry became Netflix.
While Detroit obsessed over ‘sticker prices,’ Musk built the Apple App Store for vehicles:
Own the OS (Tesla software)
Control the App Economy (FSD subscriptions, robotaxi fees)
Monetize the Ecosystem (carbon credits, driverless data)
Toyota sells cars. Tesla sells car-as-a-service, and Wall Street pays 10x multiples for the difference.
Robotaxi Shock Therapy: $4.20 fares aren’t charity, they’re loss leaders to dominate data/credit markets
The playbook? Sell the razor, monopolize the blades, then sell the shaving habits to third parties.
When historians write about 21st century capitalism, they won’t talk about Musk’s rockets or cars. They’ll study how he turned physical products into financial derivatives.

Tesla’s Robotaxi Rollout Ignites Stock Surge and Analyst Praise, as $4.20 Fare Threatens Uber and Lyft

Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi debut kicked off Sunday in Austin, Texas — and with it came not just a successful technical demonstration, but a pricing shockwave that could redefine the ride-hailing market.

Offering autonomous rides for just $4.20 flat, Tesla’s entry is now being touted as a potential category killer that could disrupt incumbents like Uber and Lyft, whose fares in the area typically range from $25 to $40 per trip.

Following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement of the launch on X, Tesla shares closed up 8.2% on Monday, as Wall Street digested early footage and firsthand reviews from invited users who tested the new service. Around 10 to 20 modified Tesla Model Y SUVs, each wrapped in “Robotaxi” livery, are operating in a geofenced area of Austin, supervised by in-vehicle safety operators and remote teleoperation teams.

Analysts say the $4.20 price point, while clearly symbolic in its number, could give Tesla a real edge as it pushes into the ride-hailing space. It drastically undercuts the dominant players, and if Tesla can scale the service while maintaining safety and reliability, the model could force an industry-wide price realignment.

“There are countless skeptics of the Tesla robotaxi vision with many bears thinking this day would never come,” said Dan Ives, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities and one of Tesla’s most vocal bulls.

Ives took two 15-minute rides in the robotaxi and came away convinced.

“Going into it, we expected to be impressed but walking away from it, all there is to say is that this is the future,” he wrote in a note Sunday night.

He believes Tesla’s early moves in autonomy are more than just hype — they’re groundwork for something enormous.

“We view this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla… as we believe the AI future at Tesla is worth $1 trillion to the valuation alone over the next few years.”

Ives predicted that Tesla’s robotaxi service could expand to “25 to 30 cities” by 2026, mirroring Elon Musk’s own prediction that “millions” of robotaxis would be on the road by the second half of that year.

While Tesla has not disclosed expansion timelines or when the broader public can begin using the service, the pilot program in Austin already demonstrates key integration features. Riders can sync their Tesla accounts with the vehicle, automatically loading personalized media apps such as Netflix, Spotify, Hulu, and Disney+, creating a tailored in-cabin experience.

Ives noted that in one scenario, the robotaxi handled a narrow, chaotic street in Austin filled with parked cars, open doors, and opposing traffic — “masterfully maneuvering with patience and safety among this chaos.”

Safety Still a Major Hurdle

However, analysts and regulators are closely watching safety and scalability. Tesla’s system still includes human monitors — a Tesla employee in the front passenger seat and a remote operator system — a sign that full autonomy remains a work in progress.

Earlier on Monday, Reuters reported that Tesla’s responses to safety questions posed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) were classified by the company as confidential business information, prompting concern among transparency advocates.

Tesla’s rollout comes in the shadow of earlier setbacks for competitors. Uber pulled back on autonomous testing after a 2018 pedestrian fatality, and GM’s Cruise suspended operations after a high-profile incident in San Francisco last year.

But the early signs from Austin may put Tesla ahead of the pack, at least in public perception — particularly with bullish investors.

Dan Ives also suggested that the current U.S. administration under President Donald Trump is likely to support autonomous vehicle deployment and may remove regulatory roadblocks that have delayed progress in the past.

“We expect the Trump administration will clear the runway for Tesla, especially as the robotaxi rollout pivots from the recent ‘soap opera’ of legal questions into commercial reality,” Ives said.

Scaling the Vision

To reach Musk’s lofty vision of a million autonomous rides daily, Tesla must prove it can scale production, deploy thousands of cars, and build out infrastructure for cleaning, charging, and maintenance — all without traditional driver income offsetting those costs.

Tesla also must contend with fierce competition from players like Waymo (Alphabet) and Zoox (Amazon), both of which have logged millions of autonomous miles and have been slower — and more cautious — in bringing full autonomy to market.