Fidelity Bank and FirstHoldCo Plc have both confirmed plans to fully exit the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) regulatory forbearance framework in 2025.

Their separate announcements mark a key development in Nigeria’s banking sector, which has come under heightened regulatory scrutiny over capital adequacy and compliance amid new prudential directives by the CBN.

Fidelity Bank Targets Full Compliance by H1 2025

Fidelity Bank announced on Wednesday its commitment to exit CBN’s forbearance arrangements by the end of the first half of 2025, a move that would restore its capacity to pay dividends and resume other discretionary spending. According to a statement signed by the bank’s Company Secretary, Ezinwa Unuigboje, the forbearance linked to a breach of the Single Obligor Limit (SOL) is tied to two obligors. The bank expressed confidence that the exposures will be brought within regulatory thresholds by June 2025.

The lender also revealed that it is managing four other credit facilities currently under forbearance. The bank said it has made significant provisioning on those accounts and is working towards either full provisioning or returning the loans to performing status by the middle of 2025.

“Fidelity Bank remains committed to strict compliance with all regulatory policies, including the recent CBN directive on forbearance. We have proactively made substantial provisions on affected facilities and taken targeted steps to resolve the exposures,” the statement said.

To strengthen its capital base and meet the CBN’s N500 billion minimum capital requirement for banks with international authorization, Fidelity Bank disclosed that it has successfully raised N273 billion through an oversubscribed Public Offer and Rights Issue. The public offer recorded a 237.92% subscription, while the rights issue was oversubscribed by 137.73%.

In addition, the bank is planning to raise another N200 billion through a private placement in the 2025 financial year. It confirmed that CBN and shareholder approvals for the private placement have already been secured, with other regulatory clearances underway to ensure completion.

Fidelity Bank emphasized that the capital raising efforts and planned exit from forbearance will position it for dividend resumption in the 2025 financial year.

“We remain in a strong position to meet all regulatory expectations to enable dividend payments going forward,” the bank stated.

FirstHoldCo Moves to Resolve SOL Breach and Loan Forbearance

Similarly, FirstHoldCo Plc disclosed on Thursday that its banking subsidiary, FirstBank, is working to resolve breaches of the Single Obligor Limit stemming from two foreign currency loan exposures. The loans were affected by the over 200% naira devaluation that occurred between 2023 and 2024, pushing the exposures above regulatory limits.

The firm explained that the affected loans are part of syndicated credit facilities with industry-wide exposure and that all the underlying assets are now back in active production and generating revenue. Some of the projects are also awaiting receivables from government agencies.

“The syndicate is actively restructuring and re-tenoring the loans based on improved cash flows. The process is expected to be completed within the current financial year,” the statement said.

Should the restructuring fail to be completed in time, FirstHoldCo assured that it would make full provisioning on the remaining facilities to ensure a clean exit from forbearance and resume dividend payments in 2025.

In parallel, FirstHoldCo is undertaking its own capital raise scheduled for the second half of 2025, reinforcing its long-term commitment to balance sheet stability and regulatory compliance.

CBN Forbearance Framework and Sector-Wide Impact

These developments come in response to the CBN’s directive earlier this year that banks under regulatory forbearance must suspend dividend payments, defer executive bonuses, and halt foreign investments. The central bank’s new rules aim to improve capital buffers, encourage prudent risk management, and ensure that banks under financial stress are not distributing value to shareholders or engaging in expansionary activity.

The forbearance framework primarily applies to banks with unresolved breaches of lending concentration rules (such as SOL breaches) and non-performing credit exposures that require exceptional regulatory tolerance.

Both Fidelity Bank and FirstHoldCo appear determined to resolve their exposures and exit the CBN’s list of forbearance beneficiaries. Their capital-raising efforts and transparent updates to shareholders indicate an industry-wide effort to regain regulatory confidence and reposition for long-term stability.

What This Means for Investors

Investors in Fidelity Bank and FirstHoldCo can take some assurance in the clear timelines provided for resolving outstanding issues and the strong commitment to dividend resumption. Both banks have linked their strategic plans to the broader CBN agenda of deepening financial system resilience and curbing systemic risk.

If successfully executed, the exit from forbearance would allow both banks to restore their full standing in Nigeria’s capital markets and deliver on shareholder returns as early as the 2025 financial year.

More banks are expected to follow suit in reassessing their credit exposures, recapitalizing, and reestablishing dividend-paying capacity in line with evolving CBN’s regulatory standards.

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is set to ship 90,000 metric tons of gasoline to Asia, marking the first gasoline export beyond West Africa by Africa’s largest refining complex.

This milestone comes months after the refinery began full operations, and underscores the company’s ambition to become a global force in petroleum exports.

According to Reuters, the cargo is expected to be loaded by Mercuria, a global energy and commodities trading firm, on June 22. While Dangote Refinery has previously exported refined products such as jet fuel and naphtha within the West African region, this will be the first time its gasoline reaches Asian markets—a move that signals a bold pivot in the continent’s downstream trade dynamics.

A New Era for African Energy Exports

Commissioned in 2023 and built at a cost of $19 billion, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone has quickly become a game changer for Nigeria’s oil industry and Africa’s energy security. Designed to process a wide range of crude types, from Nigeria’s Bonny Light to heavier crudes, the refinery is not only reducing the country’s reliance on imported fuel but is now also positioning Nigeria as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

Since the start of operations, Dangote Refinery has exported:

• Over 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel to the United States, across six different shipments.
• Two separate consignments of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, marking a rare case of Nigeria exporting finished fuels to the Gulf.
• A shipment of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil (LSSR) to Singapore in April, reflecting growing demand from Asia’s marine fuel market.

LSSR is commonly used as a blendstock to produce low-sulfur fuel oil for bunkering or further refining. The cargo to Singapore marks one of the earliest signs that Dangote is already reshaping regional trade flows traditionally dominated by the Middle East and Asia.

The End of Europe’s Fuel Dominance?

The refinery’s growing exports are also rattling the European markets. For decades, Africa—despite being a major crude producer—has been heavily dependent on refined fuel imports, particularly gasoline from Europe. In 2022, that trade was valued at over $17 billion, with Europe exporting as much as 1 million barrels per day of gasoline and diesel to West Africa, especially Nigeria.

But with Dangote ramping up output and capable of meeting a substantial portion of regional demand, analysts now warn that Europe’s long-held market share is under threat. In January, OPEC acknowledged that Nigeria’s new refining capacity was beginning to disrupt supply chains in the Atlantic Basin, particularly for gasoline and jet fuel.

Experts suggest that if the refinery operates near full capacity, it could eliminate the need for gasoline imports into West Africa altogether, redirecting surplus volumes instead to more profitable markets in Asia and the Americas.

The exports align with Nigeria’s broader goal of capturing more value from its natural resources by refining domestically rather than exporting raw crude. For decades, Nigeria exported crude oil and imported nearly all of its refined petroleum products, draining foreign exchange and creating fuel shortages at home. The Dangote Refinery is seen as a central piece of President Bola Tinubu administration’s plan to restructure Nigeria’s oil and gas sector and reduce its exposure to global fuel market volatility.

Furthermore, fuel exports are expected to boost Nigeria’s non-oil revenue, improve trade balances, and support the naira by reducing the demand for foreign currency to import refined products.

What Lies Ahead?

While gasoline to Asia represents a significant step, Dangote Refinery is not stopping there. Sources say the facility is preparing to ramp up production of diesel and aviation fuel at even larger volumes and is actively in talks with buyers in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

By the end of 2025, industry insiders believe the refinery could reach output levels close to 450,000 barrels per day, enabling Nigeria to potentially join the ranks of global refined product exporters alongside giants like India, South Korea, and the United States.

With its latest export announcement, Dangote Refinery has officially entered a new phase—one in which Nigeria is no longer just a source of crude oil, but a competitive player in the refined petroleum market, rewriting decades of African energy trade.

Microsoft is reportedly prepared to walk away from ongoing high-stakes negotiations with OpenAI as both companies struggle to reach consensus on critical terms governing the future of their $13 billion partnership.

The tech giant has signaled that unless OpenAI presents a deal equal or superior to existing arrangements, it is ready to continue operating under its current contract—which secures exclusive access to OpenAI’s models through 2030—without committing to further equity investment or concessions.

This development, first reported by the Financial Times, throws a spotlight on the mounting tensions between the two AI powerhouses, with negotiations stalled over equity stakes, revenue sharing, infrastructure demands, and the strategic direction of the partnership.

A Fractured Alliance

OpenAI is in the midst of a structural transformation, seeking to shift from its original nonprofit status to a for-profit public-benefit corporation. This conversion is central to its goal of unlocking billions in funding, launching an IPO, and maintaining investor confidence. Microsoft’s approval is a legal requirement for this transition to succeed.

However, Microsoft is hesitant to commit to a restructuring that would diminish its control over OpenAI’s most valuable outputs. Sources familiar with the talks say both parties are clashing over how much of OpenAI’s restructured equity Microsoft should receive in exchange for its investment. While figures ranging from 20% to 49% have reportedly been discussed, Microsoft is reluctant to reduce its existing contractual benefits, particularly its share of revenues from OpenAI, currently capped at $92 billion with a 20% cut.

Insiders say OpenAI is now proposing to reduce Microsoft’s revenue share to as little as 10% by 2030, a move the tech giant views as diminishing its return on a massive outlay. Microsoft sources argue that public markets and shareholders care more about monetized access to AI infrastructure than about how much equity the company owns in a third-party vendor like OpenAI.

Strategic Stakes for Both Parties

Despite the tension, Microsoft and OpenAI released a joint statement saying, “We have a long-term, productive partnership that has delivered amazing AI tools for everyone. Talks are ongoing and we are optimistic we will continue to build together for years to come.”

However, the atmosphere behind closed doors tells a different story. According to reports, OpenAI has even contemplated a “nuclear option”—accusing Microsoft of anti-competitive behavior—to pressure the company into loosening its grip on the current partnership terms.

One person close to OpenAI described Microsoft’s negotiation stance as “just making OpenAI sweat,” underscoring the software giant’s leverage in the talks. Another Microsoft insider added, “The status quo is fine with us. We’re happy with the current contract and prepared to run it through until 2030.”

However, for OpenAI, securing this deal is not optional. Several investors in recent financing rounds—most notably SoftBank, which led a $30 billion round—have agreed to terms that require the nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion. Without Microsoft’s consent by the end of 2025, OpenAI risks losing billions in committed capital. SoftBank alone could retract $10 billion if the transition is not completed on time. Though OpenAI’s leadership believes backers will remain on board even in the event of delays, the pressure to deliver is significant.

Diverging Agenda

Microsoft, led by CEO Satya Nadella, has been actively reducing its dependence on OpenAI models, anticipating a future in which foundational AI models become commoditized. Instead of betting solely on OpenAI, Microsoft is integrating multiple AI models into its cloud services. In May 2025, it began offering access to Elon Musk’s xAI Grok model to Azure customers—a move that underscores Microsoft’s pivot toward a multi-model ecosystem.

According to several sources, Microsoft is also becoming less patient with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s escalating demands for computing infrastructure. Altman has reportedly pressured Microsoft for faster access to GPUs and expanded server capacity to handle ChatGPT’s soaring user base—now at 500 million weekly active users globally—while also training new models.

The partnership has become particularly strained over infrastructure issues, with OpenAI also exploring alternative cloud partnerships with Oracle, Google Cloud, and SoftBank to diversify its backend operations.

Legal and Regulatory Hurdles

Even if both companies reach a new agreement, it must survive scrutiny from U.S. regulators. The conversion of OpenAI into a for-profit entity is subject to review by attorneys-general in California and Delaware, given its original nonprofit charter. Elon Musk, a former OpenAI board member and current head of xAI, has launched a legal challenge against the transformation, which further complicates the timeline and risks.

Additionally, current contract elements are under renegotiation, including Microsoft’s exclusive right to sell OpenAI’s products through its Azure cloud, its right of first refusal on infrastructure services, and its early access to OpenAI’s intellectual property in the event of a breakthrough in artificial general intelligence (AGI). Reports suggest the AGI clause may be dropped entirely, as it has become a point of contention.