Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) into Nigeria’s equities market took a dramatic tumble in April 2025, plummeting by 92.39% to N26.64 billion from the previous month’s N349.97 billion, according to newly released data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The steep decline marks a reversal from March when foreign activity surged due to a handful of large block trades. In April, the absence of such high-volume deals, coupled with rising global uncertainty and geopolitical risks, erased most of the gains from the prior month.
Total foreign transactions nosedived by 90.99%, falling from N699.89 billion in March to just N63.07 billion in April. Of this amount, foreign inflows accounted for N26.64 billion, while outflows stood higher at N36.43 billion—resulting in a net capital outflow of N9.79 billion.
The report revealed that foreign participation in Nigeria’s equities market shrank to a mere 13.08% in April, down sharply from 62.74% in March. Analysts say this suggests a swift change in sentiment, as global investors retreat from frontier markets amid heightened volatility, especially in light of recent U.S. policy moves that have disrupted international capital flows.
Market Activity Slashed in Half
Beyond the foreign retreat, the overall transaction value on the NGX also saw a sharp contraction, dropping by 56.79% to N482.04 billion in April from N1.115 trillion the previous month. However, on a year-on-year basis, the market still posted a 39.22% growth compared to N346.23 billion in April 2024, supported by improved liquidity conditions early in the year.
Year-to-date (YTD), total transactions on the NGX have reached N2.714 trillion, a 43.3% increase from N1.894 trillion in the same period last year. While this reflects a solid start to the year, the April downturn serves as a reminder of the fragility of capital flows into the Nigerian market.
Domestic Investors Remain the Backbone
In the face of declining foreign interest, domestic investors continued to play a stabilizing role, accounting for N418.97 billion or 86.92% of total trade in April. This was slightly up from N415.62 billion in March. Within this segment, institutional investors—comprising pension funds, asset managers, and corporations—boosted their activity by 8.77%, rising from N218.50 billion to N237.66 billion.
Meanwhile, retail investor participation dipped by 8.02%, declining from N197.12 billion to N181.31 billion. Institutional investors outperformed retail by 14% in April, continuing a trend that has defined trading so far this year. As of April 2025, institutional trades totaled N976.66 billion, compared to N860.29 billion from retail investors.
Despite March’s uptick, foreign investors are still net sellers year-to-date. Between January and April, foreign inflows totaled N420.32 billion, while outflows reached N456.80 billion, leaving a net capital outflow of N36.48 billion.
Year-to-date, foreign investors accounted for just 32.32% of market activity, while domestic players took the larger share at 67.68%. While this represents a shift from 2024, when foreign trades made up only 13.77% of the market, sustainability remains in question given the renewed volatility.
A review of trading over the last 18 years shows consistent growth in domestic transactions, rising from N3.556 trillion in 2007 to N4.735 trillion in 2024—an increase of 33.15%. Foreign transactions, by contrast, grew by 38.31%, from N616 billion to N852 billion in the same period.
So far in 2025, domestic trades have reached N1.837 trillion, nearly double the N877.12 billion recorded in foreign trades. The numbers reinforce a longstanding trend: while foreign capital brings liquidity and momentary surges, the Nigerian equity market leans heavily on domestic institutional support.
Behind the Investors’ Retreat
April’s slump comes amid global financial jitters triggered by a new wave of trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on multiple countries, including a 14% levy on Nigerian exports. The announcement caused widespread concern in financial markets, weakening investor appetite for emerging and frontier markets.
The tariffs—which took effect in early April—have disrupted trade flows, particularly in non-oil sectors where Nigeria had begun diversifying its export base. Although oil remains dominant, sectors like agriculture, textiles, and solid minerals have come under pressure as exporters reassess their U.S.-bound strategies.
Reacting to the volatility, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervened by injecting $200 million into the foreign exchange market to support the naira, which had come under renewed pressure. At the same time, Nigeria’s economic team convened emergency strategy sessions to assess the possible fallout from Washington’s trade policy shift.
Nigeria is expected to look at alternative export markets and explore negotiations to secure tariff exemptions for specific product lines.
Trump’s broader trade strategy included a suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs, replacing them with a uniform 10% baseline tariff for all imports, excluding China, until at least July 8, 2025. This was billed as a temporary measure to allow negotiations with more than 75 countries seeking adjustments to their trade terms with Washington.
The uncertainty surrounding these talks, and the potential for escalated retaliatory measures, has weighed heavily on markets like Nigeria that rely on both trade and capital flows.
However, the latest data underscores the delicate balance facing Nigeria’s equities market. While domestic investors continue to provide the bulk of support, persistent foreign capital flight could weaken market liquidity and limit access to foreign exchange buffers.
Analysts warn that unless Nigeria can deliver meaningful economic reforms—particularly around FX policy, security, and investor protections—it will be difficult to sustain the kind of foreign interest seen briefly in March.
