Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.97% in May 2025, marking a second consecutive month of decline, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The new figure, down from April’s 23.71%, points to a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures, though many Nigerians still say the impact has yet to be felt in household expenses.

The annual inflation rate is now 10.98 percentage points lower than the 33.95% recorded in May 2024. This year-on-year decline is partly attributed to the recalibration of the inflation measurement framework, as the NBS now uses November 2009 as the new base year. On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to 1.53% in May, down from 1.86% in April, suggesting a reduced pace in the general price level increase.

Urban-Rural Divide Persists

Despite the overall slowdown, the disaggregated data reveals contrasting inflationary trends across Nigeria’s urban and rural communities. Urban inflation stood at 23.14% in May, a sharp drop from 36.34% in the same month last year. But on a monthly basis, urban prices ticked upward, rising to 1.40% from 1.18% in April.

Rural areas fared better month-on-month, with inflation dropping significantly to 1.83% in May from 3.56% in April. The rural year-on-year inflation rate stood at 22.70%, down from 31.82% in May 2024. Yet, the cost of living in rural Nigeria remains high, and analysts say security challenges and poor infrastructure continue to undercut efforts at easing inflation further in those regions.

Food Inflation Drops Sharply—But Not for Everyone

Food inflation dropped dramatically to 21.14% in May 2025 from 40.66% in May 2024, one of the largest year-on-year declines in recent years. However, this sharp fall is largely the result of statistical adjustments rather than tangible relief in the markets. On a monthly basis, food inflation actually increased slightly to 2.19% in May from 2.06% in April, driven by slower declines in the prices of staples such as yam, maize flour, sweet potatoes, and fresh pepper.

NBS attributed the month-on-month uptick to reduced momentum in food price reductions, as insecurity in food-producing regions and early-season flooding have started to disrupt supply chains again.

Core Inflation Also Eases

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural items and energy prices, fell to 22.28% in May from 23.39% in April. Compared to the 27.04% recorded in May 2024, core inflation has now dropped by 4.76 percentage points. This easing reflects relatively stable pricing in housing, transport, and communication services, though rising utility costs in urban areas remain a concern.

Financial analysts had projected the May inflation slowdown, crediting improved macroeconomic conditions. Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, said, “The naira appreciation in the NAFEM window helped ease import-driven inflation. We’re also seeing early gains from the government’s fiscal interventions, particularly in reducing logistics costs.”

According to Nairametrics Research, three factors were central to the slowdown:

• Exchange Rate Gains: The naira appreciated slightly by 1.03% in the NAFEM window to N1,585.50/$ in May, helping to ease pressure on the costs of imported goods.
• Lower Fuel Prices: Reduced petrol costs contributed to declining transport and logistics expenses, particularly for food, thereby softening inflation in retail and wholesale markets.
• Seasonal Harvest and Food Supply: Temporary improvements in food distribution helped moderate prices in major cities like Abuja and Lagos. However, this gain may not last as early flooding and persistent insecurity in key agricultural states threaten future supply.

Nigerians Still Waiting to Feel the Relief

While the headline numbers suggest relief, the reality for many Nigerians remains starkly different. Despite the deceleration, prices are still far higher than what the average household can afford. Food accounts for more than 50% of household expenditure in Nigeria, and even small monthly increases weigh heavily on already strained incomes.

The back-to-back easing in inflation has also sparked renewed calls among economists for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to consider reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which currently stands at a historic high of 26.25%.

Some analysts believe that maintaining high interest rates amid declining inflation is unnecessary and potentially harmful to credit availability in the economy.

“The CBN must now balance its inflation-targeting mandate with the need to support real sector growth. If inflation continues to ease, we expect a downward adjustment in the MPR within the next policy cycle,” Asimiyu said.

However, the concern is now shifting to whether this inflation trend holds through the third quarter, especially as climatic conditions, global energy prices, and domestic insecurity continue to pose major risks.

Crude oil prices surged Monday night following an incendiary post by President Donald Trump, warning of imminent danger in Iran’s capital and renewing his vow to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The post marked a significant escalation in U.S. rhetoric, deepening concerns that the ongoing Israel-Iran confrontation could spiral into a full-blown regional crisis with dire implications for global energy markets.

“IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump posted on Truth Social, the platform owned by his media company.

Within minutes of the post, oil markets reacted sharply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped as much as 2.7%, before stabilizing at $72.05 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged 2.2% before settling 0.4% higher at $73.50. The sharp movement reflects deep market anxiety over the possibility of military escalation in one of the world’s most volatile and energy-critical regions.

Global Markets Rattle as Tensions Rise

The reaction extended beyond oil. U.S. equity futures dropped, signaling investor concern that further escalation could destabilize global markets:

• S&P 500 futures were down 0.4%
• Dow futures slipped 0.4%
• Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%

Financial analysts said the president’s post added fuel to a fire already burning. Israel has continued its campaign of airstrikes on Iranian military targets in recent weeks, and Tehran has warned that it will respond decisively to any threat against its sovereignty.

“Trump’s comments inject even more uncertainty, risk, and volatility into the market,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia (ex-Japan) at Mizuho Bank. He noted that the statement could be interpreted as either a calculated warning to deter Iran or the opening salvo of a broader escalation.

The most immediate market concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through this strait. Iran has long threatened to close it in retaliation to any perceived aggression from the U.S. or its allies.

As global oil markets head into the peak summer demand season, even the slightest disruption through the Strait could cause a dramatic spike in prices and lead to global energy shortages.

“A blockade remains the key risk that could push markets into uncharted territory,” said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy, indicating that even if the probability of a blockade is low, its potential impact is enormous. That’s why we’re seeing the market price in that risk.

The U.S. Navy maintains a strong presence in the region to ensure the strait remains open, but a direct confrontation with Iran would significantly raise the stakes — and likely trigger retaliatory moves by Iranian proxies across the region, including in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Brinkmanship, Regime Survival, and the Shadow of 2019

This is not the first time oil markets have been shaken by brinkmanship involving Iran. In 2019, under Trump’s first administration, a similar standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions led to tanker seizures, drone shootdowns, and a spike in oil prices, though it ultimately stopped short of open warfare.

What makes the current situation more dangerous, according to Varathan, is the lack of viable diplomatic off-ramps. Trump’s renewed emphasis on Iran’s nuclear capabilities may corner Tehran into abandoning cautious survival strategies in favor of more aggressive posturing.

“If the leadership in Iran smells regime change on the agenda, the risk is that it may shift from loss-minimizing survival strategies to destruction-maximizing end-game,” Varathan warned.

As of Tuesday morning, there was no follow-up statement from the White House or the State Department clarifying the context of Trump’s warning or confirming the credibility of the threat to Tehran. Iran’s government, for its part, has remained defiant but cautious, indicating it will respond to any aggression “at a time and place of its choosing.”

Markets will be watching for movement on several fronts, including: Whether Israel intensifies its strikes or announces broader military objectives, any sign of Iranian retaliation or closure of shipping lanes, a formal U.S. military repositioning in the Gulf region and diplomatic efforts from regional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Turkey to mediate or de-escalate tensions.

However, oil markets are expected to remain highly volatile, with prices sensitive to even the slightest development or signal from Washington, Tehran, or Tel Aviv.

The Trump Organization’s latest venture, Trump Mobile, has ignited a media storm and public curiosity—not just because it’s a Donald Trump-branded wireless service, but because it comes bundled with a new $499 smartphone called the T1.

Unveiled Monday at Trump Tower, the phone was pitched as an American-made alternative to foreign-dominated devices and mobile networks. However, early scrutiny of the product’s specifications and marketing raises far more questions than answers.

According to the Trump Mobile website, the T1 phone will be released in September and supports a subscription plan pegged at $47.45 per month—an on-the-nose reference to Trump’s second tenure as the 47th U.S. President. The wireless service is being promoted with calls to “take back control” from Big Tech and coastal elites, echoing Trump’s populist tone.

But despite the nationalistic messaging and a flashy launch, the T1’s feature list has already sparked skepticism and even derision among tech analysts and journalists.

The Phone Specs: Ambitious or Absurd?

Here’s what Trump Mobile claims the T1 offers:

• A 6.78-inch AMOLED display with a punch-hole selfie camera
• 120Hz refresh rate
• Triple rear camera setup: 50MP main sensor, 2MP macro, and 2MP depth sensor
• 16MP front-facing camera
• 5,000mAh battery
• 256GB of storage and 12GB of RAM
• In-display fingerprint reader and face unlock
• Android 15
• 3.5mm headphone jack
• USB-C charging port

The specs put the T1 in a peculiar position—not quite a flagship device but also not entry-level. While similar features can be found on higher-end Android phones like the Asus ROG Phone 9 or even the Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra, those devices typically retail for significantly more than $499. Critically, the Trump Mobile website leaves out one of the most important details of any smartphone: the processor.

Without information on the chip powering the phone, it’s impossible to verify whether the T1 can truly deliver the performance its specs imply. There’s also no mention of durability, water resistance, or other basic features typically listed for a modern device at this price point.

The phone’s promo image—which has been called out for clumsy Photoshop work—further clouds the issue. Observers note visual inconsistencies such as misaligned camera sensors and poorly rendered bezels that do not resemble any known phone design.

Made in America? Not Likely

The Trump Organization claims the phone is “Made in the USA,” a claim many industry experts view as improbable. Nearly every smartphone sold in America today is assembled overseas due to high labor costs and entrenched supply chains. Even U.S.-based tech companies like Apple and Google rely on Chinese, Indian, and Vietnamese factories to build their phones.

Tech analyst Paolo Pescatore dismissed the made-in-America pitch as “highly unlikely,” noting there is virtually no smartphone manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S.

“Even small-scale assembly for niche phones takes years to build and validate,” he said.

A Cloud of Uncertainty

Beyond the hardware, the Trump Mobile ecosystem raises additional concerns. The T1 phone is branded under a trademark license, and the Trump Organization is not directly involved in its engineering or manufacture. That leaves questions about who actually built it, who owns the data, and how the carrier operates.

Trump Mobile’s wireless service is almost certainly piggybacking on an existing U.S. network—most likely through a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) arrangement with T-Mobile, Verizon, or AT&T. But no such partnerships have been disclosed.

Meanwhile, DTTM Operations, which manages Trump’s trademarks, has filed applications for broader telecom uses of the “Trump” and “T1” brands. These cover accessories, mobile services, and even retail stores, hinting at broader ambitions—but also raising the possibility of a business-driven more by branding than by tech chops.

A Phone Full of Questions

Critics are already drawing comparisons to vaporware—products hyped before they exist, often to capture political or financial momentum. Among the many unanswered questions:

• Will the T1 actually ship by September?
• Is it water-resistant or rugged?
• Why are the rear cameras oddly spaced?
• Will it ship with Trump-themed wallpapers, pre-installed apps, or crypto-related bloatware?
• And most pressing: what phone model is it really based on, if any?

The Verge, in its breakdown, described the T1 as “as vapor-y as it gets,” warning that the promotional render “bears no resemblance to any existing phone on the market.” The website also joked about the oddly titled “T1 Phone 8002,” asking, “What happened to the first 8,001 tries?”

Political Branding in a Saturated Market

The launch of Trump Mobile and the T1 smartphone is part of a broader trend in conservative commerce—ideologically aligned products and platforms for voters who distrust mainstream institutions. But while the branding may appeal to Trump’s base, it’s entering a brutally competitive market where specs, performance, and trust matter.

The U.S. smartphone market is dominated by Apple and Samsung, who together account for the vast majority of phone sales. And with most telecom traffic handled by three national carriers—Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile—Trump Mobile may struggle to find a competitive edge beyond its name.

Unless more details emerge confirming the viability and origin of the T1 phone, many in the industry will continue to view it with skepticism. This means that it remains a branding gamble in a market where political loyalty might not be enough to carry a tech product.