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Hyperliquid Team’s HYPE token Allocation Unlocks This Week

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Hyperliquid team’s HYPE token allocation is set to begin unlocking this week, specifically on November 29, 2025, marking the first major vesting event since the token’s genesis in November 2024.

This is a cliff unlock followed by linear vesting, and it’s generating significant market buzz and caution due to potential short-term sell pressure. Core Contributors team and early developers, which represents 23.8% of total supply 238 million HYPE out of 1 billion total.

12-month cliff: fully locked until November 29, 2025. Linear vesting over 24 months, releasing ~9.92 million HYPE per month roughly 2.66%–2.97% of current circulating supply, estimated at ~373 million HYPE. First unlock value: Approximately $308–$327 million at current prices ~$33 per HYPE.

Total Over 24 Months: ~238 million HYPE, or up to $500M+ in monthly potential supply if prices hold steady—far exceeding the protocol’s current buyback capacity of ~$30–120M/month from fees.

This structure is designed for long-term alignment but creates a predictable supply overhang, with full vesting extending into 2027–2028. $HYPE has dropped ~20% over the past week to around $30–$33, with elevated volatility and $565M in 24-hour volume.

Traders are de-risking ahead of the event, but on-chain data shows whales accumulating in the $30–$33 range and $4.1M in leveraged long positions. Some analysts see it as a “generational buying opportunity” amid FUD, urging the team to stay silent and let fear drive dips for long-term holders.

Others highlight the protocol’s strength: $4.3B TVL, $260B+ 30-day volume, gas-free trading, and 175+ teams building on HyperEVM. Recent team unstaking of 2.6M HYPE ~$86M has fueled speculation, though no sales have occurred yet.

$HYPE is part of a $566M token unlock wave, including Plasma’s $XPL (Nov 25, $17.5M) and Jupiter’s $JUP (Nov 28, $12.8M). Hyperliquid’s tokenomics are deflationary by design, with 97% of protocol revenue ~$105M/month from $357B derivatives volume funneled into HYPE buybacks via the Assistance Fund.

This has created a self-reinforcing cycle of reduced supply and price support. No VC allocations mean less early sell-off risk.Upcoming catalysts could offset pressure. Institutional staking via Anchorage Digital.

HIP-3 DEX launches and a proposed 450M HYPE burn. HyperEVM mainnet and Airdrop Season 2 in 2026. Potential $1B SPAC deal. Expect volatility and possible dips as recipients team/early backers may sell portions for liquidity—net supply imbalance could push prices lower if volume doesn’t absorb it.

If Hyperliquid sustains growth it’s already the top perp DEX, this could be a stress test it passes, turning unlocks into accumulation zones. Analysts eye $80–$100 by mid-2026 if buybacks scale.

While it’s just the start of a 24-month linear vesting 238 million total, it carries multifaceted implications across markets, sentiment, protocol health, and strategy. Drawing from recent analyses and community discourse.

This is not financial advice—crypto markets are volatile, and outcomes depend on broader conditions like BTC’s trajectory. The influx could increase circulating supply by 2.7% from ~373 million, potentially leading to dumps if recipients sell for liquidity.

Whales have already withdrawn ~$122 million in HYPE pre-unlock, signaling de-risking, and recent team unstaking of 2.6 million HYPE ($86 million) has amplified FUD. Expect 10–30% price dips, with shorts targeting $28 support levels amid a risk-off market.

This is part of a $566 million event including Plasma ($XPL) and Jupiter ($JUP) unlocks, which could compound sector-wide selling in DeFi/perps tokens. Hyperliquid’s $565 million 24-hour volume and $4.3 billion TVL suggest liquidity to absorb some pressure, but leveraged positions risk cascades.

On-chain data shows accumulation at $30–$33, but panic selling could create “generational buy-in” opportunities for spot holders. Lack of team communication on vesting plans is eroding trust in a bearish macro, with calls for transparency to counter “PTSD from past dumps.

Bears are gaining ammo, suppressing spot conviction and boosting perps shorts. Optimists view it as a “coiled spring”—volatility drives fees ~$105 million/month, fueling 97% revenue into buybacks via the Assistance Fund AF, holding 29.8 million HYPE worth $1.5 billion+.

This acts like a “black hole” for supply, reducing availability long-term. Bears highlight overhang risks, with some speculating delays in ecosystem moves to buy cheaper post-unlock. Encourages DCA strategies for believers, with community framing it as a “stress test” for Hyperliquid’s resilience—past unlocks didn’t derail the rally to $50 ATH.

As a top perps DEX, Hyperliquid thrives on volatility—$6.5 million daily fees with zero emissions outperform rivals like dYdX TVL bleed despite bribes and GMX 60% drop post-V2. Builder Codes have routed $100 billion+ volume via 170+ integrations, paying out $40 million and adding 253K users.

Unlocks coincide with catalysts like institutional staking, HIP-3 DEX launches, HyperEVM mainnet, and a proposed 450 million HYPE burn. Portfolio margin via lending/borrowing on HyperCore could “eat all of finance,” per community buzz. No VC allocations reduce early sell risk, emphasizing community focus.

If unlocks erode confidence, TVL could shift to competitors like Aster, but high retention and expansions position it as DeFi’s “AWS of liquidity.” The vesting promotes alignment—full release by 2027–2028 ensures skin-in-the-game, while AF’s buybacks no burns yet create scarcity 1.26 years to absorb all sellable supply at current pace.

This could propel HYPE to $80–$200 by mid-2026 if volume scales, turning unlocks into accumulation zones. Rewards long-term holders via staking/governance; upcoming Airdrop Season 2 and USDH as quote asset broaden utility. Team’s “decades-long vision” and expansions (e.g., $300 million+ DAT accumulation) signal sustainability.

Success here validates buyback models over emissions, influencing copycats via Polymarket’s Builders Program. Failure could highlight vesting pitfalls, but Hyperliquid’s $1 trillion+ cumulative volume and 90K+ users suggest it’s a “revaluation milestone” for on-chain perps.

In essence, short-term pain dips, FUD is probable but buyable for those betting on fundamentals—Hyperliquid’s revenue machine and zero-compromise design make it a standout.

US Equities Open Green at Pre-Markets

Meanwhile, US stock futures are trading in positive territory during premarket hours this Monday, signaling a higher open for major indices amid a shortened Thanksgiving trading week markets close early on Friday and are shut on Thursday.

This rebound follows a volatile November, where the S&P 500 has declined about 3.5% month-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite is down 6.1%, largely due to a pullback in overvalued AI and tech stocks.

Today’s green tone reflects renewed optimism around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in December, supported by cooling inflation signals and a softening labor market—though economic data remains mixed.

Broad market recovery; extending Friday’s gains after last week’s 2% drop. Tech-heavy; Alphabet (GOOGL) leading premarket gains with +2% on AI optimism. More modest lift; energy and industrials providing support amid stable oil prices ~$60s/barrel.

Traders are pricing in a higher probability of a December Fed cut, with gold prices holding above $4,000/oz reflecting expectations of easier monetary policy without immediate recession fears.

After AI-driven sell-offs, names like Alphabet are bouncing, while broader sentiment tests risk appetite. Light volume due to holidays, but watch for reports from Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) and BioLineRx (BLRX) pre-open; later in the week, key data like jobless claims and manufacturing PMI could sway momentum.

Global cues are supportive, with Asian markets (e.g., Alibaba + in Tokyo trading) edging higher. Crypto and fintech news, like Upbit’s potential Nasdaq IPO, adds to positive vibes in digital assets.

Volumes are thin, so expect some choppiness at the 9:30 AM ET open. If you’re trading, stick to limit orders given the lower liquidity. Fed rate cut probabilities represent the market’s collective expectations for whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its target federal funds rate—the key benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the economy—at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

These probabilities aren’t official Fed predictions but are derived from the prices of 30-Day Fed Funds futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Traders’ bets on future rates are translated into implied odds using tools like the CME FedWatch Tool.

For example, if futures prices suggest a high likelihood of rates dropping, it boosts the probability of a cut. These odds can shift rapidly based on economic data releases, Fed speeches, and global events. The current federal funds target rate stands at 3.75%–4.00%.

Markets are pricing in a strong chance of easing, driven by cooling inflation and a softening labor market, though recent strong jobs data has tempered aggressive cut expectations. The next FOMC meeting is December 10, 2025, where a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut to 3.50%–3.75% is seen as the base case.

Probabilities for cuts are highlighted where they exceed 50% cumulatively (e.g., any move below the current range). These sum to ~100% per meeting; hikes are negligible (<1%) across the board.

Cumulative cut probability ~82.9% to 3.50%–3.75% or lower. Cumulative cut ~90% further easing expected. Cumulative for ?3.25%: ~47%; markets see ~2–3 more cuts by mid-2026. Cumulative for ?3.00%: ~52%; total easing of ~100 bps priced in over 12 months.

Recent reports have reduced cut odds from near 100% in October to ~75% now, as the Fed balances inflation control with growth risks. Chair Powell’s comments emphasize data-dependence; no cut in September delayed the cycle.

Bond yields and stock futures react instantly—e.g., today’s premarket green reflects cut optimism boosting risk assets. By end-2026, markets imply rates around 2.75%–3.25% a ~100 bps total cut, assuming no recession.

But this could change with upcoming data like Thursday’s Thanksgiving-shortened PCE inflation report. These are market bets, not guarantees—the Fed could surprise.

Indian Rupee Depreciates Against USD On Concerns of Growth and Liquidity

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

The Indian rupee enters a critical week of trading, facing renewed depreciation pressure, with currency desks across Mumbai bracing for a potential slide toward the psychological barrier of 90 per U.S. dollar.

The bearish sentiment follows a punishing week in which the currency slumped to a record low of 89.49 on Friday, capping a 0.8% weekly decline that has left traders scrambling to adjust their positions.

Market participants describe the current environment as a “perfect storm” of headwinds. A sudden bout of portfolio outflows, exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding a pending U.S.-India trade deal and the imposition of U.S. tariffs, has sparked a hit to trade flows. Crucially, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to have pulled back its defense of key technical levels, a strategic withdrawal that one trader at a large private bank noted “caught the market on the wrong side.”

The currency’s trajectory has been undeniably downward throughout 2025. The rupee has shed 4.5% of its value this year, consistently lagging behind its regional Asian peers despite India’s domestic economic fundamentals remaining resilient and the stock market hovering near all-time peaks. Abhishek Goenka, CEO of forex advisory firm IFA Global, predicts the volatility will continue, forecasting the rupee to settle into a new range between 88.80 and 90.00. He describes the currency’s behavior as a “gradual, staircase-like” descent.

Bond Markets and Central Bank Maneuvers

While the currency markets battle volatility, the bond market is fixated on the RBI’s liquidity management ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy decision on December 5. The benchmark 10-year bond yield settled at 6.5665% on Friday, with traders expecting it to remain rangebound between 6.52% and 6.60% this week.

Investors are closely parsing the central bank’s recent open market operations for clues on policy direction. The RBI net bought bonds worth 148.10 billion rupees ($1.65 billion) in the week ended November 14, following a purchase of 124.70 billion rupees the prior week—its first such buying spree in nearly six months. However, the “frontloaded” nature of these purchases has led to market speculation that this is merely replacement demand rather than a deliberate signal to suppress yields.

The focus now shifts to the December 5 policy meeting, where the debate over interest rates is intensifying. Deutsche Bank Chief India Economist Kaushik Das argues that the time for easing has arrived.

“We expect the RBI to deliver a 25-basis point repo rate cut in the December policy,” Das stated.

Citing the Taylor Rule—a formula used to guide central bank rates based on inflation and growth—Das noted that the terminal repo rate should theoretically fall to 5.25% based on FY27 forecasts.

The Week Ahead

The immediate direction of both the rupee and bond yields will likely be dictated by a heavy calendar of economic data. On Friday, November 28, India will release its fiscal deficit figures and industrial output data, but the headline event will be the GDP growth figures for the July-September quarter. Deutsche Bank forecasts a robust 7.7% expansion, largely keeping pace with the 7.8% growth seen in the previous quarter, while a Reuters poll pegs the number slightly lower at 7.1%.

Globally, the U.S. dollar index remains a formidable opponent, having gained last week despite markets reloading wagers on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams have solidified expectations, but the greenback remains buoyed by comparative economic strength.

Traders will be watching a slew of U.S. data points that could sway the dollar and, by extension, the rupee. The schedule kicks off Tuesday, November 25, with manufacturing PPI, retail sales, and consumer confidence data. This is followed on Wednesday by durable goods orders, new home sales, and initial jobless claims, all of which will be scrutinized for signs of the economic softening required to justify the Fed’s dovish pivot.

Solana Proposal to Double Deflation Rate Goes Live

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Solana Improvement Document (SIMD-0411) went live, proposing a significant adjustment to the network’s tokenomics.

Authored by Solana developers under GitHub handles 0xIchigo and lostintime101, this initiative aims to double the annual disinflation rate from -15% to -30% without altering current staking rewards or introducing new mechanisms like fee burns.

The proposal has sparked widespread discussion in the Solana community, with figures like Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz calling it a potential “permanent change” to the Layer-1 blockchain’s outlook.

Solana’s inflation model was designed to start at 8% in 2020, gradually declining to a long-term target of 1.5% by 2032. Under the existing schedule. Current inflation rate: ~4.5-4.8%. Disinflation occurs in 15% increments every ~1 year 180 epochs. Time to reach 1.5%: Approximately 6.2 years from now.

The SIMD-0411 proposal accelerates this curve: Disinflation jumps to 30% increments annually. Projected time to 1.5%: ~3.1 years by early 2029. Total emissions reduction: 22.3 million SOL $2.9 billion at current prices over the next six years.

This creates a “double disinflation” effect, often dubbed the “double disinflation plan” in community discourse, making SOL scarcer faster and aligning Solana’s monetary policy more closely with Ethereum’s low-issuance model post-Merge.

Solana’s high throughput thousands of TPS and low fees have driven explosive growth, but the network’s inflation has been criticized for “overpaying” for security amid rising fee revenue. With ~70% of SOL staked, emissions fund validator rewards, but proponents argue the current curve dilutes value unnecessarily.

The timing aligns with bullish catalysts: Record inflows into newly launched Solana ETFs (e.g., 21Shares’ TSOL on CBOE, plus Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, and VanEck products) and a broader market rebound. SOL trades around $130, up ~2.5% in the last 24 hours but down 7% weekly.

Validators will vote via on-chain governance. Early signals are positive, with no major opposition reported yet. Faster disinflation could squeeze smaller validators’ margins up to 47 potentially unprofitable in 3 years, though the proposal claims no immediate cuts. Critics from prior debates worry about “analysis paralysis” stalling innovation.

Potential Impact on SOL Price and Ecosystem

If passed, this could reinforce SOL’s narrative as a “mature asset” with stronger DeFi incentives and lower “risk-free” rates for borrowing. Short-term price scenarios:Bull case: ETF inflows + scarcity narrative push SOL toward $144 by end-November per some forecasts.

Broader market risk-off or technical death cross drags it to $100-125 support. This isn’t financial advice—crypto markets are volatile. Track the GitHub pull request for updates: SIMD-0411. The proposal underscores Solana’s maturing governance, prioritizing sustainability amid 2025’s ETF-fueled momentum.

SIMD-0228, formally titled “Proposal for Introducing a Programmatic, Market-Based Emission Mechanism Based on Staking Participation Rate,” was a pivotal governance proposal in the Solana ecosystem.

Introduced in late February 2025 and put to a validator vote in early March, it sought to overhaul Solana’s fixed inflation schedule by introducing a dynamic, market-driven model for token emissions. Authored primarily by Vishal Kankani of Multicoin Capital, the proposal aimed to align SOL issuance more closely with network security needs and economic incentives, potentially slashing inflation by up to 80% under certain conditions.

However, it ultimately failed to pass in a highly contentious vote on March 13, 2025, highlighting deep divisions in Solana’s governance around validator incentives and decentralization.

This analysis breaks down the proposal’s motivations, mechanics, implementation details, risks, community reactions, voting outcomes, and lasting implications. Solana’s original tokenomics, established in 2020, featured an initial 8% annual inflation rate that disinflates by 15% annually until reaching a steady-state 1.5% by around 2030-2032.

This model was designed to bootstrap network security through staking rewards, with ~70% of SOL typically staked across validators. However, as Solana matured—with surging transaction volumes, MEV (Maximal Extractable Value), and priority fees generating substantial revenue—the fixed schedule came under fire for “over-issuing” SOL, diluting token value and creating sell pressure from reward dumps.

Reduce emissions to the “minimum necessary” to secure the network, shifting from passive issuance to revenue-driven incentives like fees and MEV. Use staking dynamics as a signal for network health, incentivizing higher participation without arbitrary cuts.

Address criticisms that high inflation ~4.5-5% at the time outpaced revenue growth, potentially harming SOL’s price and attractiveness to investors. Drew inspiration from models like Livepeer’s 50% staking participation target, which dynamically adjusts rewards to balance security and participation.

Proponents, including Multicoin and figures like Mert Mumtaz, argued it would make Solana’s monetary policy more “Ethereum-like” post-Merge, emphasizing low issuance amid high utility. At its core, SIMD-0228 replaced the fixed disinflation curve with a feedback loop tied to staking participation rate (s), defined as:s = (Total SOL Staked) / (Total SOL Supply)

The model targeted s = 50% as the “equilibrium” point—below this, emissions increase to encourage staking; above it, emissions decrease to avoid over-incentivizing and potential centralization. The adjustment formula was: ?i = k × s_target – s_actual.

Where:i = Annual inflation rate emissions as % of supply. k = Speed coefficient 0.05 per annum, allowing gradual adjustments over ~20 years to reach equilibrium. ?s = Deviation from target (e.g., if s = 40%, ?s = 10%, so ?i = +0.5%). This created a self-regulating system: Low staking triggers higher rewards to bootstrap security; high staking reduces issuance as fees/MEV take over.

Under optimistic scenarios, inflation could drop to ~1% within 2-3 years, saving ~$3.5 billion in emissions over five years. The mechanism would be hardcoded into the Solana runtime via a hard fork, with staking ratio calculated epochally every ~2-3 days using on-chain data.

No immediate changes; adjustments begin post-activation, with simulations showing minimal disruption to current ~6-7% APY for stakers. Validators vote via on-chain signals; delegators could influence via SIMD-0123 reward sharing.

The full draft was discussed on GitHub solana-improvement-documents #229 and the Solana Forum, with simulations shared to model outcomes under varying s values. Automatically scales rewards to actual security needs, potentially lowering long-term inflation to <2% faster than the fixed curve.

Critics argued staking ratio ignores revenue growth or deflation; suggested tying to REV instead. Rapid disinflation could deter new stakers, creating a feedback loop of declining participation. 50% s was seen as too low; suggestions for 67% to maximize “useful” security.

Decentralization Fears: Broader concerns that cuts would centralize power, as noted by Anza and Figment. The failure preserved the status quo but accelerated calls for reform, paving the way for simpler proposals like SIMD-0411 doubling disinflation without dynamics.

SOL dipped ~10% post-vote amid broader market weakness, but long-term, it underscored governance maturation: High turnout showed engagement, but revealed needs for better delegator tools (e.g., Galaxy’s MESA framework).

BitMine Immersion Adds $83M ETH to Treasury As Grayscale’s DOGE ETF Launches on NYSE Arca

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR), the Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury firm chaired by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, continues its aggressive accumulation strategy amid a crypto market pullback.

On-chain data linked to BMNR wallets showed the company purchasing over $82 million worth of ETH—aligning closely with the $83M figure you mentioned—bringing its total holdings to approximately 3.6 million ETH about 2.9% of the circulating supply.

This follows a pattern of dip-buying: just days prior, BMNR added 21,000 ETH, and earlier in November, it scooped up 82,353 ETH for $306M. 3,559,879 ETH valued at ~$11.1B at $3,120/ETH, plus 192 BTC, $37M in “moonshot” investments via stake in Eightco Holdings, and $607M in unencumbered cash.

Around $3,120 per ETH, leaving the firm with $3.7B in unrealized losses as ETH trades below $3,000 today. Despite this, BMNR’s “Alchemy of 5%” goal aims for 5% of ETH supply 6M more tokens via a $24.5B equity raise program.

BMNR shares are down 80% from their July peak of $135, trading at $26 amid broader crypto weakness. However, institutional backers like ARK Invest added 240K shares in early Nov) and Jim Kim (1.1M shares) signal long-term conviction.

BMNR’s low OPEX mostly staking rewards and no debt, positioning it to weather bears better than peers. Tom Lee attributes ETH’s dip to “QT effects” (quantitative tightening) and forecasts a rebound to $7,500 by year-end.

This move underscores BMNR’s bet on ETH as a “supercycle” asset, using equity issuance to accretively grow ETH per share—even in down markets.

Grayscale’s DOGE ETF Launches on NYSE Arca

Grayscale Investments officially debuted its spot Dogecoin Trust ETF (ticker: GDOG) on NYSE Arca, marking the first U.S.-regulated spot ETF for DOGE.

This follows SEC clearance and NYSE certification last week, converting Grayscale’s private DOGE trust into a publicly tradable product that holds actual DOGE tokens no futures or derivatives.

GDOG offers direct spot exposure with tight NAV tracking via creation/redemption mechanisms. Investors can buy shares through standard brokerage accounts—no wallets or crypto exchanges needed. It’s aimed at accredited investors initially but opens doors for retail and institutions.

Analysts like Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas project ~$11M in first-day volume, potentially ranking GDOG in the top 10 new ETFs of 2025. DOGE is up ~0.7% today to $0.146, but broader ETF flows remain bearish amid crypto’s slump.

This isn’t Grayscale’s first DOGE rodeo they had a private trust, but it’s the second U.S. DOGE ETF overall—following REX-Osprey’s futures-based version in September. It signals meme coins’ “Wall Street glow-up,” legitimizing DOGE beyond jokes and unlocking liquidity for pensions/endowments.

Spot ETF debut; initial AUM TBD ~$250M projected for peers. Unrealized losses; dilution from equity raises. High volatility; not fully SEC-registered yet. These developments highlight crypto’s deepening ties to TradFi, even in choppy waters.

As the architect of BMNR’s aggressive ETH accumulation strategy—aiming for 5% of ETH’s total supply—Lee’s predictions are deeply tied to his firm’s actions, including the recent $83M ETH purchase that pushed holdings to ~3.6M ETH.

His forecasts emphasize ETH’s “supercycle” potential, driven by stablecoin growth, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, AI integration, and institutional adoption via Wall Street and DeFi staking. Despite ETH’s current dip below $3,000, Lee views this as a buying opportunity, attributing weakness to quantitative tightening (QT) effects rather than fundamentals.

Lee’s predictions have evolved with market developments, but they consistently point to explosive upside. This is Lee’s reiterated base case for December 2025, representing a 3–5x rally from current levels. In late October interviews and X posts, he highlighted ETH’s breakout from a 4-year consolidation pattern, signaling “real price discovery” ahead.

Technical analysts at Fundstrat, like Mark Newton, align with this, eyeing $5,500 by mid-October already surpassed as a stepping stone. Surging on-chain activity ETH transactions at all-time highs and stablecoin demand are outpacing price, setting up a “fundamentals-lead-price” reversal.

Lee compares this to ETH’s impending “Bitcoin 2017 moment,” where utility explodes. BMNR’s low-cost staking yielding ~4–5% annually further bolsters the case, as Wall Street firms stake ETH for RWA security.

Building on year-end momentum, Lee sees $16,000 as feasible if RWA tokenization hits $10–30T by 2030 from $25B in H1 2025. A $22,000 scenario assumes ETH recaptures its 2021 valuation multiples relative to Bitcoin.

In August, Fundstrat projected a $1.8T ETH market cap ~$15,000/ETH by December, but Lee has upped this amid GENIUS Act tailwinds for stablecoins. Rationale: ETH as “Wall Street’s blockchain of choice” for tokenizing assets.

Dual catalysts—financialization CeFi to DeFi shift and AI tokenizing robots/economies—could drive exponential network fees. Lee notes ETH’s undervaluation: At Circle’s 100x P/E multiple, ETH’s layer-1 security implies >$10,000 today.

Long-Term Forecast (2030+)Target: $60,000+ per ETH. Lee’s moonshot vision positions ETH as the “biggest macro trade of the next 10–15 years,” potentially matching Bitcoin’s network value. This implies a $7–8T market cap, fueled by 15x stablecoin growth and staking by institutions.

In a July Bankless podcast, he outlined ETH’s “step-function” valuation jumps, akin to ChatGPT’s impact on AI stocks. Rationale: ETH’s neutrality as a “truly neutral chain” attracts governments and pensions. With BMNR’s treasury model proving scalable no debt, OPEX covered by staking, Lee envisions ETH powering a tokenized world economy.

Risks like CBDC competition exist, but he bets on private stablecoins’ edge. Full financialization, 15x network growth. Lee’s track record adds credibility: He nailed Bitcoin’s 2024 run to $100K+ and ETH’s early-2025 surge to $5,500.

Critics point to delays, ETH not yet at $10K but he counters with BMNR’s conviction—adding ETH on dips despite $3.7B unrealized losses average cost: $3,120. For exposure, he recommends ETH ETFs, BMNR stock, or direct staking. In today’s market ETH down 3.5% to ~$2,950 amid QT, Lee’s dip-buying ethos shines.

BMNR’s buy doubles down on ETH’s utility play, while GDOG injects meme energy into ETFs. If you’re positioning, watch ETH/BTC correlation and GDOG inflows for directional cues.

Crypto ETPs Saw Almost $2B Worth of Outflows Last Week, But BTC Is Bouncing Back

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) indeed recorded massive net outflows of approximately $2 billion in the week ending November 14, 2025, marking the largest single-week redemption since February 2025.

This data comes from CoinShares’ Digital Assets Fund Flows Weekly Report, released on November 17, and has been echoed across major crypto news outlets. It’s part of a broader three-week bleed totaling over $3 billion, driven by heightened market volatility, macroeconomic jitters, and risk-off sentiment among investors.

Despite the red ink, year-to-date inflows for crypto ETPs remain robust at around $44 billion, underscoring that this dip is more of a tactical pullback than a full retreat from the asset class.

Led the pack; U.S. spot BTC ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT saw $523M in single-day outflows amid a 30% BTC price slide. Hit harder proportionally; U.S. spot ETH ETFs via BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $500M+ of this.

Smaller but notable; reflects broader altcoin pressure. Modest outflows, though some XRP funds bucked the trend later in the week with inflows. Investors rotated into diversified products for hedging.

Bearish bets gained traction as prices dipped. Regionally, the U.S. bore the brunt at 97% of total outflows ~$1.97B, with Europe (e.g., Switzerland: $39.9M out) and Asia (Hong Kong: $12.3M out) following suit.

Interestingly, Germany was a lone bright spot, adding $13.2M as locals scooped up the dip. Several factors converged to fuel the exodus. Crypto-native “whale” selling—over $20B in BTC dumps in the prior month—amplified the downward spiral.

BTC and ETH cratered 8.3% and 9.4% respectively last week, dragging total ETP AUM down 27% from an October peak of $264B to $191B. Retail and institutional “weak hands” de-risked, but “strong hands” quietly accumulated on-chain, per on-chain analytics. This pattern has historically preceded sharp rebounds.

By November 24, signs of stabilization emerged: Friday’s flows flipped positive with $258M in net inflows, the first green day after seven reds. BTC rebounded to ~$86,300, and ETH to ~$2,803.

A more recent CoinShares update for the week ending November 21 pegged outflows at $1.9B—still steep, but slightly tapered—bringing the four-week total to $4.9B 2.9% of AUM.

This isn’t 2018-level panic; it’s the third-worst outflow run since then, but inflows are still up massively YTD. Analysts like CoinShares’ James Butterfill see it as “shifting positioning” rather than outright capitulation—diversified and short products gained ground, hinting at tactical plays.

Metrics across Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) show bullish undertones, with BTC consolidating around $84K–$86K and ETH at ~$2,865. Data from Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Santiment proxies via reports, and real-time X chatter confirm this trend, aligning with historical patterns where such accumulation precedes 20–50% rallies within 4–8 weeks.

Despite the $2B ETP exodus, LTHs and whales added 186K BTC ~$15B at current prices in the past two weeks, per aggregated analytics. Exchange reserves are down 1.2% MoM, signaling reduced sell pressure, while UTXO unspent transaction outputs in the 1–10 BTC range hit a monthly high—retail quietly joining the party.

Profit-taking contained; 97% supply in profit but SOPR ~1.0 no mass distribution. This offsets whale outflows in one tier only, with net positive. On-chain activity active addresses +8% WoW and transaction volume +12% point to organic demand, not just speculation.

Leverage is creeping up funding rates +15 bps, and if BTC breaks $82K, it could test $74K–$76K 200-EMA. But with permanent holders up from 159K to 345K BTC since Oct, the base is solid. ETH’s metrics echo BTC’s resilience, with LTH accumulation hitting all-time highs amid the 42% drawdown from $4,946 ATH.

Exchange outflows surged $4.11M net in the last 24h, and whale concentration top 1% hold 49.5% adds volatility—but Gini coefficient at 0.86 signals balanced distribution, not dump risk. Post-Dencun upgrade, DeFi liquidity ~$22.7B volume is primed for a spark.

Correlation with BTC at 0.86 means it rides the coattails, but ETH-specific metrics reduce single-point failure risks. High concentration could amplify dumps, and a BTC washout to $74K drags ETH to $2,200. But with exchange reserves stable and Dencun efficiencies incoming, the setup favors upside.

These metrics substantiate the “strong hands loading” thesis—ETP outflows ~$4.9B over 4 weeks are being mopped up on-chain, reducing float and capping downside. Historically, LTH net position change flips positive post-capitulation, leading to ATH breaks BTC eyes $126K, ETH $5K+.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action, CME Gap Fill and Emerging Bounce

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a turbulent phase in recent weeks, erasing much of its 2025 gains amid broader market pressures like stock market volatility, reduced ETF inflows, and whale selling.

However, the completion of a key CME futures gap around $92,000—formed back in April 2025—has removed a major technical overhang, paving the way for the observed bounce. BTC is trading around $87,070 up approximately 0.5% in the last 24 hours after stabilizing from a dip below $90,000.

This recovery aligns with historical patterns where gap fills often act as pivot points for short-term reversals. CME gaps occur because Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trade limited hours closing weekends, while spot markets operate 24/7.

This creates “blank spaces” on the futures chart that prices tend to revisit—historically, about 98% of such gaps get filled, often signaling equilibrium after sharp moves.

The $91,900–$92,500 gap had loomed as a downside magnet since April, drawing BTC lower during the November sell-off triggered by factors like Nvidia earnings anticipation and Fed rate cut uncertainty. BTC peaks near $124,000 amid post-halving optimism.

Early November: Sharp drop to $91,545 six-month low, a 27% pullback, coinciding with stock market tumbles (e.g., Dow Jones down 550+ points on Nov. 17). Gap fully filled as price wicks into the $92,000 zone, eliminating the technical risk.

November 19–22: Brief consolidation around $80,000–$82,000, with whale accumulation via Binance-linked whales pausing dumps providing subtle support. This fill wasn’t immediate—unlike quicker resolutions in March or July 2025—but it mirrors longer-term examples, like the November 2024 gap that took months to close before sparking a rally.

Post-gap fill, BTC entered “extreme oversold” territory RSI below 30, a level that preceded short recoveries in 2023 and March 2025. Analysts note this as a classic setup for a rebound, especially with.

Glassnode data shows BTC hitting oversold extremes earlier on November 23, triggering $218 million in liquidations mostly shorts, which fueled the uptick.

Selling pressure eased after a $240 million dump on November 11; recent order-flow data indicates whales accumulating near lows, with ETF inflows ticking up to $250 million for the week ending November 16.

The gap fill has shifted focus to a descending channel on the daily chart. A bounce from $90,000 support targets $99,600–$103,800, aligning with the 50-day moving average. However, a new small 1-hour CME gap formed around $93,000, which could see a minor dip before further upside.

The Fear & Greed Index hit a 2025 low of 10/100 during the dip but has rebounded to 25, reflecting cautious optimism. Broader crypto recovery (e.g., XRP up 7%, ETH holding $3,000) supports BTC’s lead.

Time for a bounce?” with charts showing the wick, garnering agreement on potential upside. Recent posts highlight the oversold bounce, though some warn of a “dead cat” scenario if $88,000–$90,000 breaks.

Whale dumps resume, stock correlation strengthens S&P 500 downtrend, low ~10%—gap removal reduces downside bias. BTC’s correlation to tech stocks 0.68 with S&P 500 means U.S. market opens could sway it. Watch $90,000 as pivotal support—if held, the path to $100,000+ clears.

For longer-term bulls like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, this dip is “noise” in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory toward $200,000+ by year-end. This setup underscores why CME gaps remain a trader favorite: They blend technical reliability with real-market psychology. If you’re positioning, consider waiting for confirmation above $94,000 to avoid whipsaws.

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