Artificial intelligence will hand enormous geopolitical leverage — comparable to nuclear capabilities — to the countries that manage to get ahead now, according to Alexander Vedyakhin, the first deputy CEO of Sberbank.

He said dominance in AI will grant nations strategic superiority throughout the century, drawing a direct line between technological leadership and national power.

Speaking with Reuters at Russia’s annual AI Journey conference, Vedyakhin argued that it was no small feat that Russia sits among what he described as the “seven countries with home-grown AI.” Sberbank, which has rapidly expanded from a major state-backed lender into an AI-driven technology conglomerate, has become one of the key players in this push.

“AI is like a nuclear project. A new ‘nuclear club’ is emerging globally, where either you have your own national large language model (LLM) or you don’t,” he said. Moscow believes it belongs inside that club, but officials openly admit the challenges ahead.

Vedyakhin said Russia must have at least two or three entirely original AI models — not foreign models retrained with domestic data — to power platforms in online public services, healthcare, and education. He warned that using foreign systems in such sensitive areas would be unacceptable.

“It is impossible to upload confidential information into a foreign model. It is simply prohibited. Doing so would lead to very unpleasant consequences,” he said.

The Kremlin has been sharpening that message. President Vladimir Putin said last week that home-grown AI was essential for protecting Russian sovereignty, reinforcing Moscow’s view that AI is no longer just a commercial tool but a national-security asset. Domestic champions such as Sberbank and tech giant Yandex are leading efforts to catch up with U.S. and Chinese developers, though hurdles remain.

The Race Leaders — and a Closing Door

Vedyakhin admitted Russia lags the United States and China in raw computing power, talent pool depth, and access to high-end chips — the last being heavily constrained by Western sanctions. He estimated that the U.S. and China are ahead of all other AI nations, including Russia, by “six to nine months,” a gap that he said is widening.

“In this race, every day matters,” he said. “But those who haven’t started are falling behind the leaders by much more than a day with each passing day. For those who decide to join now, it will be extremely costly, almost impossible.”

He added that the AI club is effectively “closed,” given the capital and expertise now required to build competitive large language models.

Still, Moscow is trying to show momentum. Vedyakhin said Sberbank’s GigaChat 2 MAX LLM is comparable to OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4.0, and the company’s new GigaChat Ultra Preview model is on par with ChatGPT 5.0. To expand its footprint, Sberbank plans to make some newer models open source, including for commercial use.

The push comes as Russia looks for ways to offset its disadvantage in chip supply. Vedyakhin said the country would increasingly rely on domestic programmers and mathematicians to accelerate training and reduce costs.

“What we can’t achieve with sheer numbers, we achieve with skill,” he said.

The Cost of AI Power — and the Energy Question

Vedyakhin noted that the structural demands of AI development are immense. He estimated that Russia’s power sector alone needs 40 trillion roubles ($506 billion) for electricity generation and another 5 trillion roubles for grid upgrades over the next 16 years to meet anticipated AI-related computing needs.

The energy burden is already a global concern. He pointed out that a breakthrough could come from an LLM architecture that isn’t based on classic generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) designs, noting China’s DeepSeek in 2024 as an example of a step-change model structure.

But he warned that current AI infrastructure spending comes with serious economic uncertainty. Energy consumption is so high that returns on investment are “either very distant or not visible at all,” he said — a point that has been raised internationally as companies and governments pour hundreds of billions into data centers, chips, and electricity networks.

“There is overheated hype around infrastructure spending,” Vedyakhin told Reuters. He argued Russia is less exposed to “AI bubble risk” because its investment levels remain comparatively restrained.

However, the overall message was that the global race has already hardened into a contest where very few countries have the capacity to compete at the top. But that created the objective for Russia to build sovereign AI models, try to close the computing gap, and secure a place in what Vedyakhin described as the emerging “nuclear club of AI.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that the United States was not in danger of slipping into recession in 2026, arguing that Americans would soon experience the full gains of the Trump administration’s economic agenda as more provisions of its flagship fiscal package take effect.

In a wide-ranging interview on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Bessent projected confidence about the economy’s direction despite lingering worries over inflation, sluggish housing activity, and the political gridlock that recently froze Washington for more than six weeks.

“I am very, very optimistic on 2026,” he said. “We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy.”

His optimism centers on the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — the GOP’s sweeping spending package — whose remaining provisions continue to roll out. The law locks in President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanently and layers additional incentives on top of that structure. It adds a senior “bonus” to offset Social Security taxes, expands the state and local tax deduction, and creates tax breaks on tip income, overtime pay, and auto loans.

Bessent said the economic effects of these components have not yet been fully felt, but will begin showing up in household finances and business investment over the next year.

He also said health-care costs are expected to become more affordable, noting that the administration would have “more news” on that later this week.

A Tension Point: Health-Care Subsidies Still Uncertain

Even as Bessent pledged relief ahead, millions of Americans are bracing for higher health-care expenses due to the congressional impasse over extending enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act marketplace. Lawmakers have not resolved the issue, meaning many households may see their premiums jump.

Bessent acknowledged that parts of the economy remain under strain, particularly housing and other sectors heavily shaped by interest-rate movements. He said the services sector continues to exert upward pressure on inflation, but argued that declining energy prices would help slow price increases in the near term.

Adding to the uncertainty, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Sunday that fourth-quarter economic data could show weakness because of the 43-day government shutdown. The stalemate — the longest in U.S. history — disrupted federal operations, delayed projects, and added another layer of instability to the economic outlook.

Public Sentiment Cuts Across Income Lines

Despite the administration’s upbeat message, public dissatisfaction remains widespread. A recent NBC News poll found that around two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has fallen short on handling the economy and cost of living.

Perceptions vary sharply by income. JPMorgan’s latest Cost of Living Survey reported that high-income respondents rated their economic confidence at an average of 6.2 out of 10, with more than half scoring the outlook between 7 and 10. Low-income consumers, however, gave an average rating of 4.4, highlighting the imbalance in how Americans are experiencing inflation, housing costs, and the effects of tighter financial conditions.

However, Bessent’s argument rests on the idea that the Trump administration’s mix of permanent tax cuts, supply-side incentives, and a trade policy reshaped around “America First” priorities will yield stronger, sustainable growth by 2026 without driving a new burst of inflation.

But the short-term picture remains uneven. Capital-intensive sectors are cooling, borrowing remains expensive for homebuyers and small businesses, and the federal government is still processing the financial and logistical fallout of the shutdown.

The administration maintains that as the final elements of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act filter through the economy, the effects will accumulate — eventually delivering the stronger growth Bessent predicts. Whether Americans feel that improvement, however, remains an open question, and one likely to shape the economic narrative through 2025.

After weeks of anxiety across Nigeria’s financial sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria has stepped in with a decisive clarification on how banks and Financial Holding Companies must calculate their minimum paid-up capital — a move aimed at ending regulatory disputes that had stalled the release of half-year and nine-month financial statements.

In a circular dated November 14, 2025, the CBN ruled that the minimum paid-up capital referenced under Section 7.1 of the 2014 Guidelines for Licensing and Regulation of Financial Holding Companies must be calculated strictly as the par value of issued shares plus any share premium arising from their issuance. The clarification overrides all previous interpretations and takes immediate effect.

The order closes a messy chapter of conflicting internal readings that had split the industry. Some institutions treated minimum capital as strictly paid-up share capital, others added share premiums, and a few even counted reserves or retained earnings — creating discrepancies that frustrated ongoing regulatory reviews.

The circular, signed by the Director of Senior Secondary Education, Hajia Abdulkadir, on behalf of the Minister, stated: “For the purpose of Section 7.1 of the Guidelines, minimum paid-up capital shall be the aggregate of the par value of issued shares and any share premium arising from their issuance. Accordingly, all Financial Holding Companies are required to apply this definition in computing their minimum capital requirement, including those of their subsidiaries, without exception. This directive takes immediate effect, and all previous interpretations that conflict with this position should be discontinued forthwith.”

The dispute over what constitutes minimum capital had grown into a stumbling block during regulatory reviews, according to people with inside knowledge of the matter. Some banks and HoldCos were instructed to reconcile their capital positions before submitting results, delaying approvals of their audited and unaudited earnings.

The confusion arrived at a sensitive moment. With recapitalization deadlines approaching, banks were under pressure to show clean, compliant capital structures. Instead, many found themselves trapped in back-and-forth sessions with examiners, slowing down disclosures and freezing planned communications with investors.

HoldCos in the Spotlight

The directive carries major implications for HoldCos, which were a particular focus of the CBN’s clarification. Under existing rules, a HoldCo must maintain higher issued share capital than the combined capital positions of all its regulated subsidiaries.

In the past, some groups relied on retained earnings or reserves to meet this threshold. The CBN has now wiped that option off the table.

This means several HoldCos may need to adjust their capital structures, halt or reconsider dividend payouts, or rework restructuring plans. Upstreaming of profits — a sensitive point in an era of tight liquidity — may also face new constraints.

The timing of the clarification coincides with the banking sector’s most ambitious recapitalization programme since 2004. New thresholds are already in motion, and regulators want uniformity in how banks report capital to avoid loopholes or creative accounting.

By insisting that only issued shares and share premium count, the CBN is reinforcing its consolidated supervision model. It wants capital to reflect real shareholder contributions — not accumulated profits or accounting reserves that could fluctuate.

What the Numbers Show: FUGAZ Capital Positions Under the New Rule

The strongest banking groups — the FUGAZ banks — hold sizeable capital bases once share premiums are consolidated into the computation.

• First HoldCo: N20.94bn share capital + N377.10bn premium = N398.04bn
• UBA: N20.52bn share capital + N329.56bn premium = N350.08bn
• GTCO: N18.21bn share capital + N489.37bn premium = N507.58bn
• Access Holdings: N26.66bn share capital + N568.24bn premium = N594.90bn
• Zenith Bank: N20.54bn share capital + N594.11bn premium = N614.65bn — the largest among the five.

These figures reveal how heavily Nigerian banks have come to rely on share premiums — a product of past capital raises — as buffers in their capital structures.

What This Means

With the new directive now in force, banks and HoldCos are expected to revalidate their capital computations ahead of upcoming filings. Sources say more guidance may follow under the broader recapitalization framework, especially as the CBN moves to streamline capital reporting templates.

The CBN, by this move, aims to reduce regulatory friction, clear the backlog of delayed earnings releases, and ensure a level playing field as banks prepare for the next phase of capital expansion. The new directive means that ambiguity has been removed from the sector, uniform capital reporting has been introduced, and the recapitalization timeline is not slowing down.