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Fear and Greed Index for Equities Has Reached Highest Level Since October 2024

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment for equities, has reached its highest level since October 2024, with recent posts on X indicating it hit 71, firmly in “Greed” territory. This is a significant shift from a month ago when the index was at 19, reflecting “Extreme Fear.” The index was reported at 61.6 on May 11, 2025, and climbed to 67 by May 12, 2025, before reaching 71 on May 14, 2025.

This rapid swing from fear to greed aligns with a strong market rally, as the S&P 500 (tracked by SPY) has risen approximately 17% from its April 7, 2025, low, adding about $400 billion in market cap per trading day over 18 days. SPY’s current price is $587.232, up from $516.05 on April 21, 2025, reflecting this bullish sentiment. Historically, high greed readings, like those above 70, can signal overbought conditions, prompting caution among investors. For context, the index hit a low of 4 in early April 2025, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, before this sharp reversal.

Some market observers suggest this greed level, especially if it approaches 80+, could indicate a potential peak in bullish sentiment, urging traders to stay vigilant. The Fear and Greed Index uses indicators like market momentum, put/call options, and volatility, but it’s not a perfect predictor. If you’re trading or investing, weigh this alongside other factors like SPY’s year-high of $613.23 and current technicals.

The Fear and Greed Index hitting 71, its highest since October 2024, signals strong bullish sentiment in equities, with several implications for investors and markets. A reading of 71 (Greed) suggests markets may be overextended, as seen in the S&P 500’s 17% rally since April 7, 2025. Historically, readings above 70 often precede pullbacks or consolidations, as sentiment may be overly optimistic. SPY’s price at $587.23, near its year-high of $613.23, reinforces this risk.

High greed can lead to rapid sentiment shifts. If negative catalysts (e.g., economic data, geopolitical events) emerge, markets could see sharp corrections, especially after such a steep climb. The VIX (volatility index) tends to spike when greed flips to fear. Traders may lock in gains after a $400 billion/day market cap surge over 18 days. This could cap upside in the near term, particularly if the index approaches “Extreme Greed” (80+).

Greed often drives capital into riskier assets (e.g., tech, small caps). Investors might shift from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to growth-oriented ones, but overcrowding in these areas could amplify downside risks if sentiment sours. High greed readings can signal a contrarian sell signal for disciplined investors. Those with a bearish outlook might consider hedging via puts or reducing exposure, though timing is critical.

The swing from Extreme Fear (4 in April 2025) to Greed reflects renewed confidence, possibly tied to economic optimism or policy expectations. However, without fundamental support (e.g., strong earnings, stable rates), this rally could falter. Monitor upcoming data like CPI, Fed decisions, or Q2 earnings.

Actionable Considerations

Watch for reversal signals (e.g., SPY failing to break $613.23 or a spike in put/call ratios). Consider tightening stop-losses. Stay diversified; don’t chase the rally blindly. High greed doesn’t always mean an immediate crash but warrants caution. Hedge with options or allocate to safer assets (bonds, gold) if overexposed to equities.

Nvidia Reclaims $3 Trillion Valuation as AI Chip Demand, Trade Easing, and Global Expansion Drive Surge

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

Giant AI chipmaker Nvidia, has seen it market capitalization surged past the $3 trillion mark once again, fueled by a powerful rally in Big Tech and a confluence of positive global developments.

The stock jumped to $129.93, rising 5.6% on Tuesday alone and briefly surpassing Apple in market value. The rally continued on Wednesday, positioning Nvidia among the most valuable and actively traded companies in the world.

The renewed momentum comes on the back of a 90-day suspension of U.S.–China tariffs, bullish investor sentiment around artificial intelligence, and a major international deal with Saudi Arabia. Analysts are calling Nvidia the “clear winner” from the easing of trade tensions, with its dominance in the AI semiconductor space growing ever stronger.

The stock’s surge has made the company one of the top performers on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes.

Following the recent increase in Nvidia’s market cap, CEO Jensen Huang was handsomely rewarded with his pay package rising by 46% to nearly $50 million reflecting investor confidence in his leadership and the company’s strategic direction. The broader semiconductor sector got a boost from a 90-day agreement between Washington and Beijing to pause tariff escalation. 

Recall that Nvidia market cap first crossed the $3 trillion valuation price in June 2024, which saw it surpass Apple to become America’s second most valuable company. The company’s surge in recent years has been powered by the tech industry’s need for its chip which are use to develop and deploy big AI model.

The company’s recent market cap, has soothed fears of prolonged supply chain disruptions and rekindled optimism about global chip demand benefits that Nvidia, with its global customer base, is well-positioned to capture.

Adding to the optimism is Nvidia’s deepening partnership with Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund-owned AI startup Humain. The company recently announced the sale of advanced semiconductors to the kingdom, which is accelerating its AI initiatives through the state-backed Humain project.

The partnership was announced on Tuesday as part of the kingdom’s plans to develop artificial intelligence and strengthen cloud computing infrastructure with the help of foreign investment. One of Humain’s key moves is a strategic partnership with U.S. tech giant Nvidia to enhance the kingdom’s AI capabilities, particularly in GPU cloud computing.

The collaboration reflects Saudi Arabia’s broader economic diversification strategy focused on high-tech innovation, and Nvidia is becoming a critical partner in building the nation’s AI infrastructure.

Investors are also bullish ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, anticipating continued growth driven by its data center and AI businesses. The company dominates the AI chip landscape, particularly in GPUs used for training large language models like ChatGPT and Claude.

Estimates suggest Nvidia controls over 80% of the AI data center chip market, reinforcing its position as a cornerstone of the global AI revolution. While several American firms are attempting to challenge Nvidia’s dominance, China’s Huawei is emerging as the most formidable competitor.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has described Huawei as China’s “single most formidable” tech company. Reports indicate Huawei is rapidly closing the gap in AI chip capabilities. Sanctions by both the Trump and Biden administrations have restricted shipments of even lower-powered GPUs to China, inadvertently accelerating Huawei’s push to build domestic alternatives.

Analysts believe new restrictions being floated by the Trump camp are unlikely to significantly slow China’s AI ambitions. This intensifying competition could eventually reshape the global semiconductor landscape but for now, Nvidia remains at the summit, unrivaled in scale and influence.

Bill for Compulsory Voting Passes Second Reading, Sparks Uproar Amid Widespread Distrust in Nigeria’s Electoral System

By
Samuel Nwite
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The Nigerian House of Representatives has advanced a bill that seeks to make voting compulsory for eligible citizens, sparking debate and criticism across the country.

The proposed legislation, which passed its second reading on Wednesday, May 15, 2025, introduces stiff penalties, including a fine of up to N100,000 or a six-month jail term for any eligible Nigerian who fails to vote in an election.

Sponsored by the Speaker of the House, Hon. Tajudeen Abbas, alongside Hon. Daniel Ago, the bill is framed as an amendment to the 2022 Electoral Act. According to its proponents, the measure is intended to address Nigeria’s persistent problem of voter apathy and low turnout during elections, and to “deepen civic responsibility.”

Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu, while supporting the bill, said, “Compulsory voting is a norm in several democracies such as Australia. We need to ensure that citizens understand that rights come with responsibilities.” He added that the move would strengthen the credibility of elected governments by increasing participation.

A Law in the Wrong Political Climate

However, the bill has provoked a backlash, largely because of the enduring flaws in Nigeria’s political system — a system many believe is plagued by corruption, electoral manipulation, and judicial interference.

By this bill, it is believed that the government is attempting to coerce civic participation in a deeply flawed electoral environment where, for many Nigerians, votes appear to have little or no consequence.

In Nigeria, elections are routinely followed by allegations of ballot stuffing, result manipulation, and voter intimidation. The 2023 general elections presented a glaring example. After months of legal battles, the Supreme Court ended up deciding the outcomes of several gubernatorial, senatorial, and House of Representatives races, as well as the highly contested presidential election.

The presidential tribunal, and later the Supreme Court, ruled in favor of President Bola Tinubu, despite opposition parties contesting the integrity of the electoral process and the credibility of the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Analysts say that in such a context, criminalizing non-participation is a misplaced priority.

Public Reaction and Backlash

Outside the chambers of the National Assembly, the bill has met even stiffer resistance. Former senator and human rights activist Shehu Sani dismissed the proposal entirely.

“The Bill to jail Nigerians who refused to vote is unnecessary,” he said.

Sani’s criticism underscores the broader national disillusionment with electoral institutions, especially INEC, which has struggled to shake off perceptions of partisanship and inefficiency. The electoral commission faced widespread criticism over the handling of the 2023 elections, especially for failing to transmit results electronically in real-time — a promise that had been central to its credibility push.

Against this backdrop, many believe that what the lawmakers need to focus on is making the votes count.

“If we fix the system, the government don’t have to make the voting mandatory,” Anas Abdullahi Dukamaje said.

Civil society groups have also voiced opposition against the bill, with a threat to sue if the bill becomes a law.

“Following reports today that a repressive bill seeking to jail or fine eligible Nigerians who fail to vote has scaled second reading, we’re again calling on Mr Akpabio and Mr Abbas to immediately withdraw the bill. We’ll see in court if the bill is ever passed into law, the Social-Economic & Accountability Project (SERAP) warned.

Where the Bill Goes from Here

Despite the heavy criticism, the bill has now been referred to the House Committee on Electoral Matters for further legislative work. Its fate remains uncertain, especially as public pressure mounts against its progression. If passed, it will still require the concurrence of the Senate and the President’s assent to become law.

However, the controversy surrounding the bill has exposed a deeper crisis — the widening chasm between Nigeria’s political class and its electorate. While lawmakers push for mandatory participation, citizens are demanding an electoral system that guarantees transparency, accountability, and true representation.

Poor Results and How JAMB Failed Statistics Questions!

By
Ndubuisi Ekekwe
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0

JAMB failed and the leaders disappointed us. This is a team I have praised many times here, even honouring the Registrar as the finest public servant in the nation multiple times. Yet, even in my praise, I have maintained that JAMB must not be seen as a revenue generating entity, to avoid the issue of driving margins over trust, integrity and standards.

When the news of the mass JAMB failure broke, many community members sent me the report. I wrote to most: “that result is impossible” and I REFUSED to join most to castigate young Nigerians for the mass failure. But what did I do? I joined some select Nigerians to understand more.

Good People, Lagos and Southeast have consistently outperformed in JAMB in the last 20 years. In other words, you would always see the state and the region breaking above average. So when Lagos and Southeast failed, JAMB’s statistician would have known that it was not typical. In one school within the University of Nigeria Nsukka, 100% of the students failed as none scored above 200. But historically, this school has produced some amazing JAMBITES. JAMB’s internal data ought to have flagged the abnormalities in the results!

Fellow Citizens, JAMB has no excuse; it is a monumental failure. JAMB has distorted destinies for many young people. I have my own personal record. When I wrote mine, I put FUT Owerri as my 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices. Admission results were published and I enrolled in FUTO. But later, the admission letter came and it had UNN – Electrical Engineering.

What happened? No one could explain. I left Owerri and went to JAMB head office in Lagos, insisting that I was only for FUTO, not UNN, because I wanted to study Electrical & Electronics engineering with option in Electronics & Computer Engineering (three degrees in one) over UNN’s mono Electrical engineering. My HOD in FUTO had even encouraged me to move to UNN; I refused. At JAMB, they explained how UNN cornered my admission as it wanted me to come to Nsukka. I said, but you did not consult with me after you had already sent my name to FUTO to enroll.

A village boy was speaking and I told them to cancel the UNN admission for FUTO. They printed a new admission letter, and I made it back to FUTO – and handed it over to the registrar. They were stunned! I was lucky as JAMB listened. And I also want to commend the current leadership for how it has listened. I do hope these students will get help!

If you read my piece, you will understand my issue: data and statistics. JAMB should not have released the results if it did its work. If it works with data, it ought to have known that a UNN center would not have produced 100% failure when the center in previous years had produced great JAMBITES. Forget the tech mess, focus on the need to apply data and statistics.

The Real JAMB Failure

The biggest failure in JAMB is not that it did not update its software in Lagos State and states in Southeast Nigeria. The real issue is that JAMB published the results. Largely, if JAMB was applying statistics it was testing the students on, it ought to have noticed that the results were “impossible” since states in Southeast and Lagos state have typically outperformed in JAMB exams. 

A center in Nsukka had close to 100% failure (none scored above 200), their analysis would have shown that it was impossible considering the proximity of this center to UNN secondary school. This is what makes this mess very scary as we have just picked a signal that JAMB has no memory, and is operating as a garbage in garbage out institution! If not, it would have sent staff to know why Imo, Abia,  Anambra and Lagos states – usually the top JAMB scorers- underperformed.

And this comes to my incessant criticism of making JAMB a revenue generating agency which must generate money for the federal government. Most exam bodies are structured as public benefit organizations making it possible to invest in standards and deepen trust and integrity. But when Registrars are seen as rainmakers, those auxiliary services could be cut. I think that is what possibly happened. If not, there is no way JAMB statisticians would not have seen that it was impossible for the affected states to have performed as published.

Qatar Deal Could Reshape U.S. Economic and Geopolitical Landscapes

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

President Donald J. Trump has secured a $1.2 trillion economic commitment from Qatar, announced by the White House on May 14, 2025. The deal spans aviation, energy, technology, and defense, including a $96 billion Qatar Airways order for 210 Boeing 777X and 787 jets, $1 billion for quantum technology and workforce development, and agreements involving Qatar Energy and McDermott.

This is part of nearly $2 trillion in U.S. deals from Trump’s Middle East trip. However, some sources, like Bloomberg, report a lower figure of $243.5 billion, suggesting possible discrepancies in the total value. As economic “commitments” may not always translate to finalized investments. The $1.2 trillion economic commitment from Qatar to the U.S., carries significant implications for both nations and highlights a polarized divide in perception and impact.

The deal includes a $96 billion Qatar Airways order for 210 Boeing aircraft (777X and 787), potentially creating or sustaining thousands of jobs in the U.S. aerospace sector. Additional investments in energy (Qatar Energy) and technology ($1 billion for quantum tech and workforce development) could further stimulate job growth in high-tech and energy industries. If realized, the $1.2 trillion commitment strengthens U.S.-Qatar trade ties, positioning the U.S. as a preferred destination for Qatari capital. This could diversify U.S. economic partnerships beyond traditional allies.

Investments in aviation, defense, and quantum technology signal long-term growth in strategic industries, potentially enhancing U.S. technological and military competitiveness. The deal reinforces Qatar’s role as a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, home to the Al Udeid Air Base, a critical hub for U.S. military operations. This could counterbalance influence from rivals like China or Russia in the region. Trump’s ability to secure such a massive deal during his Middle East trip (totaling nearly $2 trillion in commitments) bolsters U.S. diplomatic leverage, potentially reshaping Gulf state alignments.

Qatar Energy’s involvement suggests expanded LNG or oil-related projects, which could stabilize U.S. energy markets or enhance export capacity. The $1 billion quantum technology investment could position the U.S. as a leader in this emerging field, with applications in cybersecurity, AI, and defense. Economic “commitments” are not guaranteed. Past high-profile deals, like Saudi Arabia’s 2017 pledges, have often fallen short of promised figures. Bloomberg’s lower estimate of $243.5 billion suggests potential exaggeration or miscommunication.

Heavy reliance on Qatari investment could raise concerns about foreign influence over U.S. industries, particularly in defense and technology. Benefits may concentrate in specific sectors (e.g., aerospace, tech) or regions, potentially exacerbating domestic economic divides. Supporters view this as a triumph of Trump’s deal-making prowess, showcasing his ability to secure historic investments that Biden’s administration couldn’t. They argue it validates his “America First” economic strategy, bringing jobs and global respect to the U.S. Social media posts on X, like those from TheCalvinCooli, amplify this, framing Trump as a master negotiator outshining predecessors.

Critics question the deal’s legitimacy, citing discrepancies (e.g., Bloomberg’s $243.5 billion vs. $1.2 trillion) and Trump’s history of overstating economic wins. Some, like Noonz, express skepticism on X, warning of potential foreign influence or unfulfilled promises. Democrats may argue it prioritizes Gulf state interests over domestic issues like healthcare or infrastructure.

Workers in aerospace (e.g., Boeing employees), energy, and tech may see direct gains, while other sectors (e.g., retail, agriculture) may feel sidelined. Rural and industrial heartland communities might benefit less than urban tech hubs, deepening regional disparities. Large corporations like Boeing and McDermott stand to gain significantly, but the trickle-down effect to workers is uncertain. Unions may demand guarantees that jobs created are high-quality and sustainable.

Nationalists celebrate the deal as a win for U.S. economic sovereignty, while globalists warn of over-dependence on authoritarian states like Qatar, which faces criticism for human rights issues. This tension fuels debates about aligning with Gulf monarchies. Allies like the EU or Japan may view this as a U.S. pivot toward Gulf wealth, potentially sidelining traditional partnerships. Israel, a key U.S. ally, might welcome Qatar’s economic alignment as a stabilizing factor.

China and Russia may see this as a U.S. attempt to lock in Middle Eastern capital, prompting them to counter with their own regional investments. The Qatar deal could reshape U.S. economic and geopolitical landscapes, driving growth in strategic sectors and strengthening Middle East ties.

However, its success hinges on execution, transparency, and equitable distribution of benefits. The divide—between political factions, economic classes, and global perspectives—reflects deeper tensions about Trump’s leadership, foreign investment, and America’s role in the world.

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