Nigeria may be inching toward another round of currency devaluation as global crude oil prices, rattled by a fresh round of tariff salvos from U.S. President Donald Trump, threaten the delicate foundation of the country’s 2025 budget.

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, is currently trading at $66.62 per barrel, nearly $10 below the $75 per barrel benchmark upon which the Nigerian government based its fiscal projections.

Though Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude has hovered slightly higher, around $78 per barrel, analysts say the broader oil price volatility triggered by the ongoing tariff war poses serious risks to Nigeria’s already fragile economy, particularly given the country’s continued reliance on oil exports to fund its budget and defend its currency.

The warning came into sharper focus after Bloomberg quoted Andrew Matheny, an economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who said the “natural policy response” to weaker oil prices for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria is a devaluation of the local currency. His remarks follow mounting concerns that Nigeria’s budget assumptions for 2025—particularly its oil production target of 2 million barrels per day—are overly optimistic.

As of March 2025, Nigeria was producing roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, down nine percent from January and well below the government’s target. With lower output and weaker prices, revenue projections are already under strain.

Oil: The Lifeline Slipping Away

Oil remains Nigeria’s most critical economic pillar, accounting for more than 90 percent of its foreign exchange earnings and a significant chunk of its GDP. Any disruption in global oil markets typically sets off alarms in Abuja. So when Brent crude slipped below the budget threshold, it triggered immediate concerns of a funding gap, reduced reserves, and an inevitable weakening of the naira.

“The natural policy response to lower oil prices is a depreciation of the naira, as this boosts oil revenues in naira terms,” Matheny told Bloomberg. “Given that the oil production assumption in the budget is already optimistic, risks are, in our view, tilted toward fiscal slippage.”

In simpler terms, if crude oil prices continue to trend below expectations while production volumes also fall short, the government could be forced to print more money, borrow beyond capacity, or allow the naira to slide to make up for revenue losses—all of which come with their own consequences.

Already, the local currency has come under fresh pressure. The naira fell by about 5 percent this month, with exchange rates hitting N1,620 per dollar in the parallel market as of Wednesday. Though authorities continue to tout market reforms and a managed float regime, the fundamentals remain heavily tied to oil receipts.

Cracks in the Reserve Wall

The impact of the price crash is not just theoretical. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed this week that the country’s economic outlook is being squeezed by falling crude prices. Speaking in Abuja, the agency’s CEO, Farouk Ahmed, said that a $10 dip in oil prices could significantly erode Nigeria’s national reserves and further weaken the naira.

“If we lose the price of crude by $10, you can see the negative impact on our economy, on our national reserves, and the strength of our naira,” he warned.

Though there was some relief this week after crude prices staged a mild rebound on the back of speculation that President Trump might soften his tariff stance, especially on semiconductors and smartphones, analysts warn that the rebound is fragile. Oil prices remain far below the levels recorded just four months ago, and global producers like Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Angola remain vulnerable.

Tariff War Fallout and Budget Pressures

Trump’s renewed tariff offensive has dragged several exporting economies into uncertain waters. While his administration has argued that the measures are designed to protect American manufacturers, they have already ignited retaliatory moves from key trade partners, stifling global trade flows and triggering a slowdown in commodity demand.

The resulting price squeeze has left oil exporters with hard choices. For Nigeria, which only recently exited a long and painful currency crisis, the prospect of another round of naira devaluation will be politically sensitive and economically damaging. A weaker currency would raise the cost of imports, push inflation further into double digits, and hurt consumer purchasing power—especially for a population already reeling under high food and fuel prices.

To close the funding gap, the federal government may resort to borrowing or accelerating the sale of state assets, but such moves could invite criticism over transparency and long-term economic planning.

Forex Market Sees Temporary Relief

Despite the bleak outlook, some signs of resilience remain. Participants in the forex market reported increased inflows through the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) window, which recorded $847 million in the past week—up from $795 million the previous week. These inflows have temporarily cushioned the naira from further decline.

The uptick in dollar liquidity is partly due to crude oil sales to nearby refineries, paid in naira, which helped ease demand pressure. However, experts warn this is a short-term patch, not a lasting fix.

In a landmark decision, U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema ruled Thursday that Alphabet Inc.’s Google violated federal antitrust laws by “willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power” in the advertising technology (adtech) market, marking the company’s second major antitrust defeat in less than a year.

The ruling, handed down in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, brings Google closer to a potential breakup than at any point in its 27-year history, with analysts warning that, absent intervention from President Donald Trump, the tech giant could face disintegration. The decision caps a two-year legal battle initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and eight states, setting the stage for a high-stakes remedies phase that could reshape the $700 billion global digital advertising industry.

The case, United States v. Google LLC (2023), filed on January 24, 2023, accused Google of illegally monopolizing the adtech market through acquisitions like DoubleClick in 2008 and anti-competitive practices that locked in advertisers and publishers. Following a trial from September 9 to September 27, 2024, and closing arguments on November 25, Judge Brinkema found Google guilty of violating Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act.

Specifically, the court determined that Google unlawfully tied its ad server, DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP), with its ad exchange, AdX, and abused its monopoly power on the publisher side of the adtech stack, harming competition and inflating prices for advertisers and publishers.

However, the judge rejected the DOJ’s claim that Google monopolized the open-web display advertiser ad networks market, which facilitates ad buying outside closed ecosystems like Google Search or social media platforms.

“The plaintiffs failed to prove that the ‘open-web display advertiser ad networks’ are a relevant market where Google has monopoly power,” Brinkema wrote in her memorandum opinion.

Despite this partial victory for Google, the ruling’s focus on DFP and AdX, core components of its adtech empire, signals a severe blow to its business model.

Unprecedented Threat of Breakup

This ruling places Google closer to a breakup than ever before, surpassing even the scrutiny it faced during the 2018 EU Android case, which resulted in a €4.3 billion fine, or the 2000 Microsoft antitrust case, where a breakup order was overturned on appeal. The adtech verdict follows a separate August 2024 ruling by Judge Amit P. Mehta, who found Google illegally monopolized the general internet search market, with remedies expected by August 2025. Together, these decisions threaten to dismantle Google’s dominance across search and advertising, which generated $305.6 billion in revenue in 2023, primarily from ads.

Analysts see Google heading toward disintegration unless President Trump intervenes.

There has been a proposal for spinning off Google’s adtech unit, formerly DoubleClick, as a public-interest “B Corp” with capped profits to restore competition. Without political intervention, experts predict a fragmented Google, with its adtech and search businesses potentially operating as separate entities.

Potential Remedies

The court will now set a briefing schedule and hearing date to determine remedies, a process expected to unfold over the coming months.

Potential remedies include forcing Google to sell its Google Ad Manager suite, encompassing AdX and DFP, which could open the adtech market to rivals like The Trade Desk. The DOJ has also floated divestitures of Chrome or Android in the search case, raising the specter of a broader breakup. There is also a possibility of imposing restrictions to ensure fair competition, such as prohibiting Google from prioritizing its own exchange in auctions or mandating data sharing with competitors. These could preserve Google’s business while leveling the playing field. In monetary damages, the DOJ previously sought treble damages for federal agencies overcharged for ads, though specifics remain undecided.

The remedies phase is critical, as structural changes could transform the digital advertising industry, potentially boosting competitors and lowering ad prices. However, a publisher tech executive warned that divestitures might raise ad server costs, as Google’s DFP operates as a loss leader subsidized by AdX profits.

Likely Intervention from Trump

In its earlier argument, Google cited national security. The company’s legal team argued that breaking it up could pose a national security risk, with concerns that splitting off its Chrome browser and limiting investments, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), could weaken America’s technological edge. Many believe that President Trump, who has been pushing a “protectionist” economic agenda, will likely agree with the argument.

Analysts speculate that Trump’s DOJ might soften remedies, prioritizing economic growth over aggressive antitrust enforcement. Without such intervention, the momentum from Biden-era lawsuits suggests Google faces a real risk of disintegration, with divestitures potentially splitting its adtech and search empires.

Google plans to appeal, with spokesperson Kent Walker arguing the ruling ignores competition from Amazon, social media, and streaming TV. Google’s defense highlighted its investments in fighting ad fraud and spam, claiming its tools benefit small businesses.

With this ruling, Google’s troubles extend beyond the U.S. In the UK, a £5 billion class action lawsuit filed in April 2025 alleges similar adtech abuses, while the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) issued a statement of objections in September 2024, with a final decision expected by late 2025.

Nigeria’s energy sector appears to be on the brink of transformation, with new signals suggesting that commercial banks are now more willing to finance renewable energy projects than ever before. Yet, poor-quality business proposals and controversial government policies continue to cast a shadow over the prospects of widespread adoption of clean energy.

At the 2025 Lagos Energy Summit, the Managing Director of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), Abba Aliyu, said financial institutions are increasingly open to backing solar and other renewable energy ventures. However, many potential beneficiaries, particularly in the private sector, continue to present proposals that do not meet the most basic financial standards required for funding.

“I’ve never been a spokesperson for banks, but I can confidently say that they are ready to fund renewable energy,” Aliyu said. “My position allows me to see the transactions firsthand, and I can confirm their commitment.”

According to him, banks are adopting more innovative energy financing models and are looking for credible projects to fund. But these opportunities are often missed due to poorly structured proposals that fail to demonstrate viability or repayment potential.

“Some business plans are not just poorly written—they lack alignment between financial statements and revenue models. If we want banks to act, we must first do the groundwork right,” he said, urging developers to seek expert guidance to align proposals with investor expectations.

Solar Ambitions Undermined by Import Ban Push

Aliyu’s remarks come at a time when the federal government’s policy direction on renewable energy, particularly solar, has sparked heated debate. Earlier this year, the government announced plans to ban the importation of solar panels and inverters, a move aimed at promoting local manufacturing.

The policy, however, has been widely criticized by energy experts, industry players, and stakeholders who argue that it could stifle the growth of Nigeria’s solar sector at a time when millions remain cut off from the national grid.

While the government says the plan is to boost local capacity, experts warn that Nigeria currently lacks the industrial base to produce solar panels at scale. Worse still, the country’s epileptic power supply has made solar energy a critical lifeline for households, businesses, and health facilities.

The proposed import restriction has raised fears that solar expansion could slow, especially in underserved rural areas that rely heavily on donor-funded or private sector-led solar mini-grid projects. For many of these efforts, imported components are still essential.

Stakeholders at the summit stressed that while the intention to boost local production is noble, a ban without first building domestic capacity and supply chains, risks being counterproductive.

The Economic Toll of Energy Poverty

Beyond policy bottlenecks, the summit also highlighted the broader economic implications of Nigeria’s persistent energy crisis.

Dr. Lateef Akanji, a Chartered Petroleum Engineer and Senior Lecturer at the University of Aberdeen, warned that the country’s low electricity access, only 33% of Nigerians have reliable power, has already cost the economy an estimated $26.2 billion annually.

He said energy poverty remains the greatest barrier to Nigeria’s economic growth. We’re sitting on vast energy resources, both fossil and renewable, but we’ve failed to convert them into meaningful, accessible electricity.

He praised Lagos State for its proactive efforts in pushing clean energy initiatives and creating a conducive investment climate. Still, he said the national conversation needs to shift toward building capacity in renewable energy through workforce development, training, and technology transfer.

Akanji also called on the government to explore green bonds and provide upfront capital investment in critical energy infrastructure, particularly in off-grid and hybrid systems.

In a sector notorious for infrastructure decay, attention also turned to how regulatory systems can be strengthened to ensure sustainability.

Engr (Dr) Oluwaseun Fadare, Commissioner for Engineering and Standards at the Lagos State Electricity Regulatory Commission, said maintenance and accountability must become central pillars of energy policy.

He proposed a regulatory framework that includes enforcement of mandatory maintenance standards, penalties for non-compliance, incentives for exemplary performance, and the integration of real-time monitoring technologies.

He also advocated for the creation of an emergency maintenance fund and an independent regulatory oversight body to ensure transparency and fast responses to infrastructure breakdowns.

“Combining mandatory standards, technological advancements, incentives, and penalties, these regulatory measures can effectively enforce adequate maintenance and promote long-term sustainability,” Fadare said.

REA Moves to Protect Billions in Public Solar Assets

Meanwhile, the REA is already taking steps to prevent renewable infrastructure from falling into disrepair. The agency recently received approval to establish a renewable asset management company to oversee its growing portfolio of solar investments across the country.

Aliyu said the new company will be tasked with managing infrastructure worth nearly $500 million—mostly deployed to public universities and federal institutions. The move, he said, is aimed at ensuring longevity and functionality.

“Too many public projects in Nigeria collapse after commissioning. This is about safeguarding investments and ensuring they deliver value over time,” he said.

He also disclosed that President Bola Tinubu has approved N100 billion for the National Public Sector Solarisation Project, a flagship initiative aimed at cutting the cost of governance by transitioning government institutions from diesel generators to solar energy.

“This is one of the most strategic interventions we’ve seen in recent years,” Aliyu noted. “But its success will depend on coordinated execution, competent operators, and an honest reassessment of our policy priorities.”

Nigeria’s energy landscape is marked by urgency. As the country struggles with frequent national grid failures, rising energy costs, and growing public frustration, the transition to renewable energy is no longer just an environmental necessity—it is a developmental imperative.

The emerging willingness of banks to support clean energy signals an opportunity, but it is one that could slip away unless structural gaps are addressed.