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Boeing, a cornerstone of American aerospace, is facing significant challenges as it finds itself entangled in the escalating U.S.-China tariff war, with China ordering its airlines to halt deliveries of Boeing jets and U.S. aircraft parts in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods.

The move has sent Boeing’s stock tumbling and raised concerns about its market share in China, a critical growth region. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs remain optimistic, citing Boeing’s ability to weather similar disruptions during Trump’s first term when China also suspended purchases, suggesting the company’s long-term survival is not at risk.

The U.S.-China trade conflict intensified in April 2025, with Trump imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, including aircraft. This tit-for-tat escalation led China to direct its airlines, including state-owned giants Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, to stop accepting Boeing jet deliveries and halt purchases of U.S.-made aircraft parts, according to Bloomberg. The order effectively doubles the cost of Boeing planes for Chinese carriers, rendering new purchases economically unfeasible.

A notable example of the fallout came from China Southern Airlines, which suspended the sale of 10 used Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners on April 11, 2025, citing “matters affecting the property transaction,” as reported by Nikkei. This decision may reflect either China’s directive or the prohibitive costs imposed by the 125% tariffs. Boeing’s stock fell 2.4% on April 15, 2025, contributing to a 12% year-to-date decline, underscoring investor fears about the company’s exposure to the trade war.

China is a vital market for Boeing, expected to account for 20% of global aircraft demand over the next two decades, with Airbus forecasting 9,500 new deliveries to China by 2043. In 2018, nearly 25% of Boeing’s aircraft deliveries went to China, but trade tensions and internal issues, including the 2019 grounding of the 737 Max, have curtailed new orders. Boeing’s 2024 annual report warned of risks from “deterioration in geopolitical or trade relations,” noting that failure to deliver to China or secure future orders could reduce deliveries and market share.

Caught in the Crosshairs

Boeing’s plight is compounded by its existing challenges, including a mass workers’ strike, financial losses, and scrutiny following a 737 Max 9 door plug incident in January 2024. The trade war now threatens to erode its competitive position against Europe’s Airbus and China’s domestic manufacturer, COMAC. China’s top three airlines had planned to take delivery of 179 Boeing planes between 2025 and 2027—45 for Air China, 53 for China Eastern, and 81 for China Southern—deals worth billions now in jeopardy.

The halt on U.S. parts imports could also disrupt COMAC’s C919 and C909 programs, which rely on American components, but Chinese airlines may increasingly turn to Airbus or COMAC for new orders, further squeezing Boeing’s market share. Airbus, with manufacturing facilities in the U.S., is better positioned to absorb tariff-related costs and has already dominated Western airliner exports to China in recent years. Analyst Wouter Dewulf from the University of Antwerp noted that Boeing faces higher production expenses and reduced profit margins, as it struggles to pass on tariff-induced costs.

Global carriers are also reacting cautiously. Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, told the Financial Times that the airline might delay Boeing deliveries if tariffs raise costs.

“We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” he said.

Delta has similarly indicated potential delays, reflecting broader industry concerns about tariff-driven price hikes.

Goldman Sachs’ Optimism

Despite these challenges, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Noah Poponak, argue that Boeing’s survival is not at stake, drawing parallels to China’s suspension of Boeing purchases during Trump’s first term (2017-2021). In a note to clients on April 15, 2025, Poponak wrote, “We think the impact to Boeing is very small because China had already stopped taking Boeing deliveries and stopped ordering Boeing aircraft during the last Trump administration, such that there is no real reduction to implement.”

During Trump’s first term, China imposed tariffs of 25% on U.S. goods, and Boeing deliveries to Chinese carriers were minimal, with the country grounding the 737 Max in 2019 after two fatal crashes. Since January 1, 2018, Chinese customers have ordered only 28 Boeing aircraft, representing just 2% of Boeing’s order backlog, which is sold out through 2030 with other customers. Approximately 25 737-8 MAX aircraft, produced before 2023, remain undelivered to China, but Goldman Sachs notes that Boeing can redirect these jets to other airlines, mitigating short-term financial impacts.

Goldman Sachs’ confidence stems from Boeing’s substantial order backlog, valued at $350 billion, and its ability to reallocate deliveries globally. The firm also points out that Airbus lacks the capacity to fully replace Boeing in China, limiting immediate competitive losses. While acknowledging long-term risks, such as reduced market share if China shifts to Airbus or COMAC, Goldman Sachs believes Boeing’s global demand and production flexibility provide a buffer against the current trade war’s effects.

Trump’s Stance and Potential Economic Impact

The U.S.-China tariff war, with trade valued at over $650 billion, risks a broader economic standstill, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% probability of a U.S. recession. Trump has framed his tariffs as a tool to curb drug trafficking and support domestic manufacturing, but his policies have sparked global market volatility, with the S&P 500 losing nearly $6 trillion in value over four days in early April 2025. On April 15, Trump wrote on Truth Social, stating that China “just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft,” though the specifics of the deal remain unclear.

China’s Foreign Ministry, through spokesman Lin Jian, emphasized a commitment to “handshakes rather than fist fights,” but its 125% tariffs and non-tariff measures, such as limiting Hollywood imports and slowing rare earth exports, signal a robust retaliatory stance. Some analysts, like international aviation consultant Neil Hansford, argue that China may suffer more, given its post-COVID aircraft shortage, but the immediate impact on Boeing is undeniable.

Boeing’s 36 suppliers in China, which produce components for all its current models, face disruptions from the parts import ban, potentially increasing production costs. While Goldman Sachs remains sanguine about Boeing’s short-term resilience, the long-term outlook depends on the duration and severity of the tariff war. A prolonged exclusion from China, which Boeing called a “significant market” in its 2024 report, could erode its competitive edge, especially as COMAC’s C919 gains traction.

The cost of living crisis in Nigeria deepened in March 2025, with headline inflation jumping to 24.23%, according to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The new figures mark a sharp rise from 23.18% recorded in February, underlining persistent pressure on consumer prices amid a weakened naira, worsening insecurity in food-producing belts, and increasing fuel costs.

Although economic managers have continued to downplay fears of hyperinflation, the latest data tells a different story—one that reflects the difficult choices millions of Nigerians are now forced to make daily as they navigate shrinking incomes, stagnant wages, and surging prices of food, transport, and basic goods.

“On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2025 was 3.90%, which is 1.85 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in February (2.04%),” the NBS stated, signaling that not only are prices high, they’re also rising faster.

Even when volatile food and energy prices are stripped out, inflationary pressures remain unrelenting. Core inflation considered a more stable measure, rose to 24.43% year-on-year, up from 20.06% in March 2024. On a monthly basis, it increased by 3.73%, compared to 2.52% in February.

This trend reveals the structural nature of Nigeria’s inflation problem, even after the rebasing by the NBS to “reflect actual economic growth.” The price increases are no longer just seasonal or driven by one-off shocks—they are entrenched across both the food and non-food segments of the economy.

Urban vs. Rural Divide Widens

The inflation burden is not felt equally. Urban areas, which depend more on imported goods and transportation, saw a year-on-year inflation rate of 26.12% in March, significantly higher than the 20.89% recorded in rural areas. Month-on-month, urban inflation rose by 3.96%, compared to 3.73% in rural regions.

What this means is that residents in cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt are seeing sharper price increases, particularly in transportation, fuel, rent, and processed food.

The Unending Food Inflation

Food inflation remains the dominant driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis. Though the NBS pegs it at 21.79% year-on-year in March, the real experience for most Nigerians tells a more troubling story. The average cost of everyday staples such as fresh ginger, garri, Ofada rice, honey, crabs, potatoes, plantain flour, pepper, and periwinkle continued to climb, with little respite in sight.

Month-on-month, food inflation rose to 2.18%, up from 1.67% in February. The steady rise comes at a precarious time: the start of the planting season, when food supply typically tightens. But this year, insecurity in the Middle Belt and other agricultural hubs, coupled with high logistics costs, threatens to worsen the crisis.

Why Prices Keep Rising

According to analysts, inflation in March was shaped by a mix of opposing forces. Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Research at Norrenberger, pointed to a tug-of-war between easing and inflationary trends.

“The continued effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” Oyekanmi told NairaMetrics. “However, depreciation of the naira in the second half of March and the increase in petrol prices could raise costs across transport and goods.”

However, the naira’s brief rally in February gave some hope for a cooldown in imported inflation. But that optimism faded towards the end of March when the currency began to slide again against the dollar. With Nigeria relying heavily on imports, from food to industrial raw materials, even a slight weakening of the naira quickly reflects on shelf prices.

Meanwhile, petrol prices stayed largely flat for most of March but ticked upward in the final week of the month, triggering fresh concerns over transport and haulage costs. With diesel and petrol accounting for a large portion of food distribution expenses, any increase reverberates nationwide.

The NBS’s ongoing rebasing of inflation weights and methodology has added to the concern of capturing economic data accurately. While the revised metrics are aimed at better reflecting actual household consumption, some economists argue that the changes may momentarily suppress the full picture of Nigeria’s inflation reality.

But even with that technical adjustment, inflationary momentum has not slowed. The month-on-month increase of 3.90% in headline inflation, the highest in months, shows that whatever marginal easing occurred earlier in the year is being wiped away.

CBN’s Policy Dilemma

The data now puts the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in a tight corner. With inflation racing ahead of interest rates and savings yields, pressure is mounting for further monetary tightening. But raising the benchmark interest rate too aggressively risks stalling an already fragile recovery and worsening access to credit for businesses.

Economists say that while the CBN has little choice but to continue hiking rates to control inflation, monetary tools alone may not be enough.

With the planting season starting under the shadow of insecurity, and exchange rate volatility threatening to worsen import bills, the outlook remains grim. The possibility of inflation breaching 25% in the coming months cannot be ruled out—especially if fuel prices are adjusted upward again or food shortages worsen due to disruptions in key farming regions.

Ordinary Nigerians, already burdened with transport fare hikes, shrinking food baskets, and stagnant salaries, continue to ask when relief will come.