Bloomberg calls “Bitcoin a safe haven” stems from recent posts on X and aligns with some historical Bloomberg articles, but it’s not a consistent stance across their coverage. Bloomberg has published varied perspectives on Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven asset, reflecting its complex and evolving perception in financial markets. Recent X posts from April 2025, such as one stating, “Bloomberg says ‘#Bitcoin Acts Like A Safe Haven'” and another claiming it has “decoupled from U.S. tech stocks,” suggest Bloomberg recently highlighted Bitcoin’s safe-haven characteristics. These posts lack direct links to specific Bloomberg articles, so their accuracy is inconclusive without further verification. However, they reflect current sentiment among some crypto enthusiasts.

Historically, Bloomberg has explored Bitcoin as a potential safe haven but with mixed conclusions. A 2013 Bloomberg article suggested Bitcoin “may be the global economy’s last safe haven” amid Cyprus’s economic collapse, noting its rise in value during that crisis. In January 2020, Bloomberg reported Bitcoin outperforming gold during a stock market plunge, bolstering its “digital gold” narrative. In October 2022, Bank of America strategists, cited by Bloomberg, noted Bitcoin’s rising correlation with gold, hinting at its potential return as a safe haven after behaving like a risk asset.

Conversely, Bloomberg has also challenged this narrative. In August 2019, they argued Bitcoin makes “no sense” as a safe haven compared to gold and Treasuries. In March 2020, amid a global market meltdown, Bloomberg reported Bitcoin’s sharp decline, stating it was “proving to be no telltale signs of distress, no haven asset.” More recently, in February 2025, Bloomberg noted Bitcoin lagging behind gold during Trump’s trade war, suggesting it hasn’t lived up to its store-of-value billing.

The “safe haven” label typically applies to assets like gold or U.S. Treasuries, which hold value during economic turmoil. Bitcoin’s volatility—averaging 4% daily price swings compared to 0.8% for the S&P 500—undermines this classification for some analysts. Its correlation with equities, especially during 2020’s COVID-19 crash, further questions its safe-haven status. However, academic studies, like one using wavelet-based quantile methods, suggest Bitcoin can act as a safe haven during specific U.S. political and economic uncertainties, though this varies over time.

Bloomberg’s coverage reflects a debate rather than a definitive stance. Bitcoin’s safe-haven status depends on context—gaining traction during certain crises but faltering in others due to its volatility and market correlations. Always cross-check claims on X with primary sources, as they can amplify unverified narratives. If you’d like, I can dig deeper into a specific Bloomberg article or analyze related X posts further.

Bitcoin is “digital gold,” a decentralized store of value that thrives during economic or geopolitical uncertainty, decoupled from traditional markets. Bloomberg noted Bitcoin’s surge during Cyprus’s banking crisis, suggesting it could be a “last safe haven” (Bloomberg, 2013). Bitcoin outperformed gold during a stock market dip, reinforcing the safe-haven narrative (Bloomberg, January 2020).

Bank of America strategists, cited by Bloomberg, observed Bitcoin’s rising correlation with gold, hinting at safe-haven potential (Bloomberg, October 2022). Academic studies (e.g., wavelet-based quantile analysis) suggest Bitcoin acts as a safe haven during specific U.S. political or economic uncertainties. X posts from April 2025 claim Bloomberg recently called Bitcoin a safe haven, citing its decoupling from U.S. tech stocks (e.g., posts stating “Bloomberg says ‘#Bitcoin Acts Like A Safe Haven'”).

Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million coins) and decentralized nature appeal to those distrustful of fiat currencies during inflation or crises. Proponents highlight Bitcoin’s performance during events like the 2013 Cyprus crisis or 2020’s early COVID-19 market stress, when it occasionally outperformed traditional assets. Bitcoin’s extreme volatility and correlation with equities make it unreliable as a safe haven, better suited as a speculative investment.

Bloomberg argued Bitcoin makes “no sense” as a safe haven compared to gold or Treasuries (Bloomberg, August 2019). Bitcoin crashed alongside stocks during the COVID-19 market meltdown, showing “no haven asset” traits (Bloomberg, March 2020). Bitcoin lagged behind gold during Trump’s trade war, undermining its store-of-value claim (Bloomberg, February 2025). Bitcoin’s daily volatility averages 4%, far higher than the S&P 500’s 0.8% or gold’s 1.2%, per historical data.

During 2020’s market crash, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities spiked, moving in lockstep with risk assets. Critics on X and in traditional finance (e.g., JPMorgan analysts) argue Bitcoin behaves like a tech stock, not a stable refuge. Skeptics point to Bitcoin’s sharp declines during major crises (e.g., 2020, 2022 bear markets) and its sensitivity to macroeconomic factors like interest rate hikes.

Why the Divide Exists

Bitcoin’s performance varies by crisis. It surged during Cyprus’s banking collapse but tanked during COVID-19’s peak panic, creating conflicting narratives. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and equities fluctuates. In 2022, it briefly aligned more with gold (0.3 correlation) but often tracks Nasdaq’s tech-heavy moves (0.6 correlation in 2020-2021). Bitcoin attracts both long-term “HODLers” seeking a hedge and speculative traders chasing price swings, muddling its identity.

Bloomberg’s mixed coverage reflects this ambiguity, with headlines swinging based on market conditions. X posts amplify selective narratives, often lacking primary source links. Limited historical data (Bitcoin’s inception was 2009) makes it hard to generalize its safe-haven status compared to gold’s centuries-long track record. Recent X posts suggest Bloomberg may have recently leaned into the safe-haven narrative, possibly due to Bitcoin’s resilience amid specific 2025 market conditions (e.g., decoupling from tech stocks). However, without a direct Bloomberg article, this claim is unverified.

A February 2025 Bloomberg piece noted Bitcoin underperforming gold, while X chatter in April 2025 emphasizes safe-haven traits, reflecting ongoing polarization. The divide over Bitcoin as a safe haven boils down to its inconsistent behavior across crises, volatile price swings, and shifting correlations with traditional assets. Bloomberg’s coverage mirrors this split, with articles supporting both sides depending on the context.

Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and a stubborn inflationary cycle, Nigeria’s foreign exchange market is undergoing a quiet but profound transformation.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), once the overwhelming force behind currency supply, is receding into a more advisory role as the market opens to broader participation and transparency. The numbers coming out of the first quarter of 2025 are telling a new story—one where policy, confidence, and market reform are beginning to realign after years of uncertainty.

Nigeria posted a net FX inflow of $15.20 billion in Q1 2025, up from $14.03 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. This improvement, though modest at a glance, speaks to a deeper structural shift. Total inflows in Q1 rose to $28.92 billion, an 18.68% increase year-on-year, while outflows jumped 32.72% to $13.72 billion.

A rise in outflows often suggests market confidence—when businesses and investors feel secure enough to engage globally, repatriate profits, or fund imports. But the net inflow staying positive amid rising outflows points to a market that is both liquid and resilient. It’s also a sign that Nigeria may be turning a corner from years of foreign exchange dysfunction.

Market Turnover and Reduced CBN Intervention

For decades, Nigeria’s FX market has been tightly managed by the central bank, with multiple exchange rates creating opacity, arbitrage, and at times—hoarding. That model came under increasing pressure during the twin recessions of the Buhari era, exacerbated by pandemic disruptions and falling oil revenues.

Since mid-2023, the Tinubu administration, working closely with the CBN, has pushed ahead with reforms aimed at liberalizing the FX market. The unification of the naira in 2023 was a flashpoint. But by 2024, the CBN was already pulling back from its role as the dominant market supplier. Now in 2025, its direct participation accounts for just 2% of total turnover, a far cry from previous regimes.

Average monthly turnover in the FX market has also increased to $8.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $5.5 billion in 2024. That increase in volume reflects not only more transactions but more transparency and confidence in pricing—a critical ingredient in restoring trust in the market.

Month-by-Month Trends and Market Maturity

Dissecting the quarter, January 2025 saw inflows of $9.41 billion and outflows of $4.84 billion, producing a net inflow of $4.56 billion. February delivered the strongest showing, with inflows at $10.64 billion and a net surplus of $6.92 billion as outflows slowed to $3.72 billion. In March, inflows tapered to $8.88 billion while outflows rose to $5.16 billion, narrowing the surplus to $3.72 billion.

These month-to-month shifts are normal in any open FX system, often indicating seasonal trade activity, debt service cycles, and external pressures like changes in global commodity prices. However, the market’s ability to remain net positive across all three months underscores a growing maturity.

Oil Prices, FX Focus, and Policy Reorientation

Crucially, this shift in FX performance is happening as Nigeria’s most dependable source of FX, crude oil, continues to face market headwinds. Brent crude prices, which hovered around $100 per barrel in 2022, have softened to the $70–$80 range for most of 2024 and early 2025, squeezing revenues for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria’s.

Rather than leaning heavily on dwindling oil receipts, the CBN has tightened its focus on attracting alternative FX sources. Diaspora remittances, portfolio investments, and export diversification have taken center stage.

At the Nigerian Investor Forum held during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC, CBN officials highlighted these reforms as critical to Nigeria’s financial stability. They pointed to restored interbank trading, the elimination of backlogs, and broader market access as milestones. According to the apex bank, these are not just bureaucratic fixes. They’re aimed at unlocking investor confidence and bringing in dollars that are willing to stay.

A Look Back at 2024—and the Road Ahead

In 2024, Nigeria attracted $99.4 billion in total FX inflows, a 44% increase over the year before. Net flows were also up 58%, thanks to policy reforms and aggressive clearing of FX backlogs. That strong performance laid the groundwork for the gains seen in early 2025.

However, Nigeria’s overall economic health poses a serious challenge to this little progress. The oil market remains volatile, with prices falling below the country’s 2025 budget benchmark. Also, rising inflation continues to erode domestic purchasing power, while the naira, though more reflective of market forces, is yet to stabilize enough to anchor long-term investor confidence.

Although the transformation in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market has significantly contributed to high inflation, it has changed its storylines. For the first time in years, the story is no longer just about scarcity, speculation, or backlogs. There are signs that Nigeria’s FX market is no longer the black box it once was. It is adjusting, reacting, and most importantly—attracting capital even as the traditional flow of petrodollars slows.

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, a slight increase from the estimated 3.4 percent in 2024, citing stabilizing reforms and improved performance in key non-oil sectors.

The projection, contained in the Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, signals cautious optimism about the country’s economic prospects, even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains a more subdued outlook. The IMF recently revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast downward to 3.0 percent and expects a further slowdown to 2.7 percent in 2026, citing weaker oil revenues and persistent structural issues.

According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s projected growth will be driven mainly by expansion in the services sector, specifically financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, along with easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment. The Bank expects growth to reach 3.8 percent by 2027, contingent on the continued implementation of reforms.

“Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4 percent in 2024 to 3.6 percent in 2025, and slightly increase to 3.8 percent in 2026–27,” the World Bank report stated.

It added that the recovery is expected to be led by the services sector and, to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production, assuming Nigeria’s output gradually aligns with its OPEC+ quota.

Diverging Inflation Projections

The World Bank and IMF also diverge significantly on Nigeria’s inflation outlook.

The Bretton Wood institute estimates inflation will ease to 22.1 percent in 2025, down from 26.6 percent in 2024, and further decline to 15.9 percent by 2027. These projections are based on revised calculations following the January 2025 rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In contrast, the IMF projects that inflation will average 26.5 percent in 2025 and rise sharply to 37.0 percent in 2026, citing lingering cost pressures, high exchange rate pass-through, and structural inefficiencies that continue to undermine price stability. The IMF warned that these factors could blunt the impact of ongoing reforms.

The NBS reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation dropped from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January following the rebasing exercise but ticked up again to 24.23 percent by March, underscoring the volatility in food prices and other essentials.

Naira Among Africa’s Worst-Performing Currencies

The World Bank identified the Naira as one of the weakest African currencies in 2024, having depreciated by over 40 percent alongside the South Sudanese pound and Ethiopian birr. The steep depreciation followed Nigeria’s adoption of a market-driven exchange rate regime aimed at unifying the country’s multiple foreign exchange windows.

Although painful in the short term, the Bank noted that the policy shift has improved foreign exchange liquidity and reduced volatility in the currency market, laying the groundwork for more predictable macroeconomic conditions.

The Bank also projects Nigeria’s current account surplus will rise slightly from 9.2 percent of GDP in 2024 to 9.4 percent by 2026. This optimism is based on expectations of reduced imports, higher remittances, and an uptick in oil exports.

However, the IMF sees a different trend, forecasting that the surplus will narrow to 6.9 percent in 2025 and drop further to 5.2 percent in 2026, largely due to uncertainties around global oil prices and external demand.

Adding to the caution, JP Morgan warned that a decline in oil prices below Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven of $60 per barrel could reverse the surplus into a deficit. Fitch Ratings remains moderately optimistic, projecting a smaller average surplus of 3.3 percent of GDP for 2025–2026, supported by domestic refinery projects and energy sector reforms.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the country recorded a Balance of Payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024—the first in three years—boosted by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion.

Return to Eurobond Market Highlights Fiscal Pressures

In December 2024, Nigeria re-entered the Eurobond market for the first time since 2022, raising $2.2 billion at a yield of 10.0 percent. This compares to the 8.54 percent yield Nigeria secured in its 2018 issuance.

The higher borrowing cost reflects investor concerns over macroeconomic risks and the global trend of elevated interest rates. The World Bank noted that other African countries, including Cameroon, have also issued debt at double-digit yields, indicating a broader regional trend of costlier external borrowing.

While Nigeria’s return to international capital markets points to renewed investor interest, it also underscores rising debt-servicing costs amid tightening fiscal conditions.

The World Bank and IMF have both welcomed Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, cessation of CBN deficit financing, and exchange rate unification. These steps are seen as critical to restoring fiscal discipline and rebuilding investor confidence.

However, the IMF cautioned that inflation remains entrenched, and gains in overall GDP growth have not yet translated into meaningful improvements in living standards.

According to the Fund, real income per capita is projected to grow by just 0.6 percent in 2025, indicating that while macroeconomic indicators may be improving, the average Nigerian could continue to face economic hardship.

The World Bank echoed similar sentiments, noting that while reforms are essential, Nigeria’s economic recovery remains fragile and dependent on sustained policy implementation, particularly in boosting non-oil revenues and addressing structural weaknesses in the economy.