First Holdco Plc closed 2024 on a triumphant note, posting a pre-tax profit of N781.88 billion, more than double the figure recorded the previous year, as strong growth in interest and non-interest income pushed gross earnings to N3.213 trillion.

The group’s audited financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024, show an after-tax profit of N663.49 billion, up 115.12% year-on-year, with the Board recommending a final dividend of 60 kobo per share—bringing the total payout to N25.13 billion, a jump from N14.36 billion in 2023.

Backed by an aggressive loan book expansion and significant investment in securities, First Holdco delivered one of the strongest performances among Nigerian financial institutions, with return on equity and earnings per share also rising sharply.

Otedola Tightens Grip

One of the year’s major developments was billionaire investor Femi Otedola’s move to double down on his stake in the bank. Otedola now controls 4.23 billion shares—up 108.83% from 2.03 billion in 2023—giving him 11.8% of the group’s outstanding 35.9 billion shares.

This deepened ownership positions him as the largest single shareholder, fueling market speculation over his long-term strategy.

Interest Income Drives the Numbers

The lifeblood of First Holdco’s 2024 financial story was interest income, which soared 156% to N2.397 trillion, accounting for about 75% of total gross earnings, up from 60% in 2023.

Much of this growth stemmed from a rise in loans and advances to customers and financial institutions, which contributed over 64% of the interest income. A significant part of the remaining interest came from investments in securities, which jumped 134% year-on-year to N6.54 trillion, now representing a quarter of the group’s total assets.

Loan book growth was also impressive. Loans and advances to customers rose 43.5%, reaching N8.768 trillion, accounting for 45% of the group’s balance sheet.

But this growth came at a cost: interest expenses nearly doubled to N996.12 billion, driven mainly by the cost of deposits. Customer and institutional deposits surged 61.03% to N17.171 trillion, making up over 75% of the group’s total assets.

Despite impairment charges of N426.29 billion, of which N341 billion was provisioned for customer loans, net interest income after impairments still rose a staggering 203.4% to N975.02 billion.

Trading and Commissions Fuel Growth

Non-interest income held its weight in the performance story. Net fees and commissions rose 31% to N244.89 billion, with electronic banking, credit-related, and transfer fees each contributing over N46 billion.

On the trading side, First Holdco raked in N549.99 billion in gains from financial instruments measured at fair value (FVTPL), contributing 17% to gross earnings.

Windfall Levy Hits Tax Line Amid Recapitalization Push

Not all was rosy, though. Tax expenses nearly tripled to N132.98 billion, largely due to a N33.49 billion windfall levy spanning 2023 to 2025. The impact of this special tax, while heavy, did little to dent the group’s profit trajectory.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalization directive is still in play, but First Holdco has already begun shoring up its buffers. It launched a N149 billion rights issue in November 2024, part of efforts to meet the February 2026 deadline for new minimum capital thresholds.

Despite strong earnings and retained profits, now at N1.116 trillion, up 89.54%—the group’s share capital and premium remain unchanged at N251.34 billion, underscoring the urgency of its ongoing capital raise campaign.

On the Nigerian Exchange, the company’s stock closed at N24.60 as of April 17, 2025—a 12.3% decline year-to-date, despite the stellar numbers. Market analysts point to profit-taking and macroeconomic headwinds as reasons for the muted investor response.

Still, with total assets up 56.6% to N26.524 trillion, shareholders’ equity up 60% to N2.795 trillion, and cash and bank balances crossing N4.4 trillion, the group’s fundamentals remain solid.

What lies ahead? Analysts believe the group’s ability to sustain asset quality amid rapid loan growth and high-interest costs will be crucial in sustaining its revenue momentum. Meanwhile, all eyes will focus on how quickly it wraps up its capital raise—and whether Otedola plans another surprise move in 2025.

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has raised fresh concerns over the trajectory of artificial intelligence (AI), warning that machines are evolving at a pace that could soon outstrip human oversight.

Speaking at an event hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project, a think tank he founded, Schmidt described a world where AI systems are no longer reliant on human intervention to improve or operate. His warning comes as fears over AI safety and governance continue to escalate across the globe.

“The computers are now doing self-improvement. They’re learning how to plan, and they don’t have to listen to us anymore,” Schmidt said.

He referred to the process as recursive self-improvement — a point at which AI systems begin generating hypotheses, testing them through robotic labs, and refining their capabilities autonomously.

Schmidt’s remarks form part of a broader chorus of concern among industry leaders and technologists who fear that, in the absence of meaningful regulation, AI could spiral beyond human control. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who also co-founded OpenAI before stepping away, has been one of the most vocal figures warning about the existential risks posed by artificial general intelligence. Musk has repeatedly likened the rapid pace of AI development to “summoning the demon,” and in recent months, reiterated that AI represents a fundamental threat to humanity’s survival if not properly governed.

Schmidt, who served as Google’s CEO from 2001 to 2011 and later as executive chairman until 2017, pointed out that tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Deepseek — all of which are already being used for advanced tasks such as coding and scientific research, were never explicitly trained for those purposes, yet are delivering results that rival and even surpass human capabilities in some fields.

“We believed AI was under-hyped, not over-hyped,” he said, highlighting that within a year, these systems may replace the vast majority of programmers and outperform leading mathematicians.

What makes these developments even more troubling, Schmidt suggested, is the weakening of safety measures in some of the latest iterations of AI tools. OpenAI’s forthcoming GPT-4 successor, known internally as o3, is rumored to come with reduced guardrails compared to earlier models. Experts have flagged this shift as potentially dangerous, as it increases the risk of AI producing misleading, toxic, or manipulative outputs without adequate human control.

While the capabilities of AI are expanding at breakneck speed, the same cannot be said for regulation. Despite repeated calls from figures like Schmidt, Musk, and other tech leaders, governments around the world have yet to develop a coherent framework to manage the risks. The United States, in particular, has no comprehensive national AI policy. Congress has held hearings, and the White House has issued executive orders, but meaningful legislation remains absent — leaving critical questions about accountability, transparency, and safety unanswered.

This vacuum in regulatory preparedness is perhaps the most pressing concern. Schmidt also warned that the U.S. risks being left behind by geopolitical rivals like China, which are investing heavily in AI while simultaneously advancing strategic control over their energy and industrial policies.

Testifying before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Schmidt said the energy demand associated with AI is another overlooked crisis-in-waiting.

“People were planning 10-gigawatt data centers,” he said. “The average nuclear plant in the US is just one gigawatt.”

The implication: AI’s hunger for computational power could overwhelm the current energy grid, unless immediate reforms are made to boost capacity, including investment in both renewable and non-renewable sources.

He further argued that open-source AI models pose national security threats if not carefully monitored, stressing that the absence of regulatory oversight opens the door for hostile use, data manipulation, and misinformation at scale.

And yet, even in his warning, Schmidt noted that AI still fundamentally depends on high-quality data and human decision-making.

“The scientists are in charge, and AI is helping them — that is the right order,” he said.

But how long that order holds remains a question. There is concern that if AI systems continue to evolve in the shadows of regulatory inaction, the very scientists in charge today may be watching from the sidelines tomorrow.

Against this backdrop, many believe that the promise and peril of AI are growing in tandem. And with no clear-cut plan for regulation, the world may be racing toward a future it still doesn’t fully understand — or control.

In a surprising shift, President Donald Trump hinted on Thursday that he might halt further tariff hikes on China, acknowledging that escalating duties could choke consumer spending and damage the U.S. economy.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said, “At a certain point, I don’t want them to go higher because at a certain point, you make it where people don’t buy.”

His words mark a rare admission of the economic toll his trade war is exacting, as inflation potentially surges and economists warn of an impending recession. With markets reeling and consumer prices climbing, Trump appears to be grappling with the consequences of a policy that has sparked global retaliation and domestic unease, raising questions about the sustainability of his “America First” agenda.

Trump’s tariff offensive began with a flourish on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” when he imposed a 10% duty on nearly all U.S. imports and targeted 90 nations with reciprocal levies. By April 9, tariffs on Chinese goods, which account for $143.5 billion in annual U.S. exports, soared to 145%, intensifying a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy.

The move, intended to revive American manufacturing and fund tax cuts, has instead unleashed a wave of unintended consequences. Consumer prices are spiking—apparel up 17%, food up nearly 3%, and vehicles up over 8%—as businesses pass on the costs of tariffs, which act as a tax on U.S. importers. Economists estimate these duties could slash household purchasing power by $2,100 annually, pushing inflation toward 4% by summer and threatening the consumer spending that drives 70% of U.S. economic growth.

The economic warning signs are unmistakable. The S&P 500 shed nearly $6 trillion in value in early April, with a record 4.8% plunge on April 3, as investors braced for a tariff-driven downturn. Retailers like Walmart report rising costs, while Delta Air Lines notes a stall in travel demand, with hotel bookings and airline ticket sales faltering. Consumers, squeezed by higher prices, are cutting back on discretionary spending, fueling fears of a broader economic slowdown. Major financial institutions now peg the odds of a recession within the next year at 45% to 60%, with some projecting U.S. GDP growth as low as 0.6% in 2025.

Trump’s remarks suggest he is beginning to feel this pressure. His concern that “people aren’t going to buy” reflects a growing awareness of declining demand, a stark contrast to his earlier dismissal of inflation fears. The Federal Reserve, caught in a bind, warns that tariffs could derail its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, with interest rates likely to remain elevated, further straining growth.

The tariffs’ impact extends beyond U.S. borders, shaving nearly a percentage point off global GDP and pushing economies like Japan, South Korea, and Canada toward recession. China, hit hardest, has retaliated with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods, suspended exports of critical rare earth metals, and curbed imports of Hollywood films and Boeing aircraft, signaling a deepening global trade conflict.

China’s defiance is pushing the escalation. Dismissing Trump’s tariffs as a “numbers game” with little economic bite, Beijing’s foreign ministry has vowed to press forward with countermeasures. However, Trump, emphasizing his “very good relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, hinted at ongoing negotiations, noting Xi’s repeated outreach.

“I think we’re going to be able to make a deal,” he said, suggesting a potential path to de-escalation. He also tied the tariff standoff to the fate of TikTok, whose parent company ByteDance faces a summer deadline to divest its U.S. operations or exit the market.

“We have a deal for TikTok, but it’ll be subject to China,” Trump said, indicating trade concessions could be part of a broader agreement.

The tariffs’ domestic toll is equally stark. Automakers like Stellantis are announcing layoffs and plant closures in Canada and Mexico, while General Motors grapples with rising production costs. Retailers, wary of consumer backlash, are poised to raise prices further by summer, with a high-end smartphone potentially costing $2,300 if costs are fully passed on. Low-income households face disproportionate losses, with annual burdens estimated at $1,700, exacerbating economic inequality. Public sentiment is souring, with polls showing widespread concern about price hikes and skepticism about the tariffs’ promised benefits.

Globally, allies are bristling. Japan and South Korea, slapped with 24% and 25% tariffs, are preparing retaliatory measures, while the European Union warns of “burdensome” costs for businesses. Canada and Mexico, targeted with auto tariffs, face economic strain, with Canadian consumers boycotting U.S. travel. Trump’s insistence on “balanced bilateral trade” has met resistance, with even Vietnam’s offer to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods rebuffed. The global growth forecast for late 2025, at just 1.4%, is the weakest since the 2008 financial crisis, excluding the pandemic era.

Trump’s shift comes amid these political and economic headwinds. His April 9 decision to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days briefly rallied markets, but renewed escalation fears have kept investors on edge. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s warning of a “market crash” vaporizing retirement accounts has amplified calls for restraint. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reflects business caution, with firms delaying investments amid tariff volatility. The Federal Reserve’s projection of a -2.4% GDP growth rate for the first quarter underscores the urgency of addressing the crisis.

Against this backdrop, analysts believe Trump’s willingness to consider lower tariffs could stabilize markets and ease consumer burdens. However, it comes with challenges, based largely on the defensive demands of other nations involved. For instance, negotiations with China, potentially linked to TikTok and technology transfers, offer hope, but Beijing’s hardline stance complicates prospects.

If tariffs remain at current levels, economists predict unemployment could rise to 4.5% and inflation could hit 4.7%, pushing the U.S. toward stagflation—a toxic mix of high prices and low growth. The Federal Reserve, facing a “rock and a hard place,” may struggle to avert a downturn without exacerbating inflation.