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POPCAT Attack on Hyperliquid linked to BTX Capital Founder Vanessa Cao

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
-
0

Hyperliquid—a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on Arbitrum—experienced a coordinated market manipulation attack targeting the Solana-based memecoin POPCAT.

The scheme involved spoofing a massive buy wall to artificially inflate demand, lure in leveraged traders, and then trigger a cascade of liquidations. This resulted in approximately $4.9 million in bad debt for Hyperliquid’s community-owned Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP) vault, which acts as a backstop for uncollateralized losses.

On November 14, 2025, blockchain analyst Specter published an on-chain investigation alleging that the attack was orchestrated by BTX Capital, a U.S.-based crypto investment firm founded in 2019, and its founder Vanessa Cao (@vc_btxcap).

BTX Capital describes itself as specializing in “liquid token strategies” to generate alpha, but Specter claims this masks manipulative tactics using the firm’s access to large capital pools.

Wallet Traces: 26 wallets involved in the POPCAT buy wall were funded via OKX and Bybit deposits. One key wallet was reused from an August 2025 TST manipulation and received funds from addresses tied to Cao’s public Ethereum wallet and BTX Capital’s official Polygon multisig.

Cross-Chain Flows: A Bybit deposit wallet received 50 million AKI tokens from a Polygon multisig controlled by 0xf97—a BTX-linked address funded directly by Cao. Ethereum and Polygon transfers explicitly bind the scheme to BTX.

The attacker sacrificed around $3–4 million in collateral on Hyperliquid but likely profited from opposing short positions on centralized exchanges (CEXes) like OKX or Bybit, where they held reverse exposure.

This marks the third major manipulation event targeting Hyperliquid’s HLP vault in 2025, following similar attacks on tokens like JELLYJELLY and ZEREBRO. The incident exposed vulnerabilities in low-liquidity, high-leverage markets on decentralized platforms, prompting Hyperliquid to temporarily pause Arbitrum bridge withdrawals and reduce leverage limits (e.g., BTC to 40x, ETH to 25x).

No protocol exploits were involved—smart contracts and the matching engine remained secure—but it highlighted risks from “degen warfare” tactics where actors burn capital to inflict asymmetric damage on liquidity providers.

The manipulation was executed with precision across multiple wallets, mimicking organic market activity. An attacker withdrew ~$3 million USDC from a CEX primarily OKX, splitting it across 19–26 coordinated wallets. These funds were bridged to Hyperliquid via Arbitrum.

Building the Trap: Using up to 10x leverage, the wallets opened long positions totaling $20–30 million in POPCAT perpetuals. A fake buy wall of ~$25 million was placed near the $0.21 price level around 16:00 UTC, creating an illusion of strong demand and pushing the price up ~30%.

The buy orders were abruptly canceled, causing POPCAT to crash ~43% to $0.12 in minutes. This thinned liquidity, sparking $63 million in total liquidations—including the attacker’s own positions.

Hyperliquid’s HLP vault absorbed the shortfall after collateral was exhausted, incurring $4.9 million in losses equivalent to ~3 months of prior profits. The vault temporarily held ~$25 million in devalued POPCAT before manual closure.

The attacker’s net loss on Hyperliquid (~$4M) was intentional, as the goal appears to be vault damage rather than direct profit. Analysts note this “kamikaze” style exploits thin order books in meme tokens, where high leverage amplifies cascades.

Link to BTX Capital and Vanessa Cao

Pattern Matching: Similar tactics fake buy walls, leveraged longs, rapid pulls appear in prior manipulations of TST, JELLYJELLY, HIFL, and ZEREBRO, all tracing to the same cluster of ~26 addresses.

BTX’s scale allows easy dominance of thin markets like Hyperliquid’s. Specter suggests the firm profits via CEX shorts while burning minimal collateral on-chain, calling it a “straightforward arbitrage” disguised as strategy.

Vanessa Cao, a former JRR Crypto co-founder and Sequoia China alum with an MBA from Tsinghua University, has not publicly responded. BTX Capital’s website emphasizes ethical trading, but the allegations imply these events are deliberate “strategies” to exploit DeFi vulnerabilities.

Community reactions on X range from calls for regulatory scrutiny to speculation of broader CEX involvement (e.g., Binance), though no concrete proof beyond on-chain data exists.

For Hyperliquid: The platform committed to refunding affected users and is exploring fixes like sliding leverage caps (e.g., smaller positions at 50x), withdrawal restrictions on high-risk trades, and higher liquidation penalties for large notionals. TVL dipped temporarily, but community support remains strong.

This underscores the need for real-time monitoring of CEX-to-DEX flows and liquidity safeguards. Perp DEXes like Hyperliquid innovate on speed and decentralization but remain susceptible to whale manipulation in illiquid assets.

POPCAT dropped ~25% post-attack from $0.21 to ~$0.15 as of November 14, contributing to broader crypto volatility amid macro pressures. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token fell ~4%. The crypto community is abuzz, with analysts like WuBlockchain amplifying Specter’s findings.

While on-chain data is compelling, definitive proof awaits further audits or legal action. This event reinforces that “decentralized” doesn’t mean immune—transparency via tools like wallet tracers is key to accountability.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hit Extreme Low of 15

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a popular sentiment gauge that aggregates factors like volatility, market momentum, social media buzz, and surveys to score investor psychology on a 0-100 scale where below 25 signals “Extreme Fear”, has plummeted to 15 as of November 13, 2025.

This marks one of the lowest readings in months, reflecting widespread panic amid recent price drops in Bitcoin and the broader market. For context, the index was at 24 just yesterday and averaged around 32 over the past 30 days, spending most of that time in “fear” territory (0-49).

Extreme fear levels like this often coincide with capitulation selling, historically creating buying opportunities as sentiment bottoms out before rebounds.

This drop echoes levels last seen in March 2025, when Bitcoin traded under $90,000—specifically closing the month at $82,548.91 after a 2.2% decline, with intraday lows dipping toward $80,000 amid post-halving consolidation and macro uncertainties.

At that time, the index similarly hovered in the low teens, signaling a cycle low that preceded a rally into mid-year highs above $120,000. Fast-forward to now: Bitcoin is trading around $102,000-$104,000 down ~18% from its October peak near $126,000, with the total crypto market cap at roughly $3.4 trillion after shedding $70 billion in a single day last week.

An index reading of 15 signals “Extreme Fear,” where panic-driven selling dominates, often marking a psychological bottom in the market. This level indicates capitulation—retail investors are dumping assets, social media sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, and volatility spikes as fear overrides fundamentals.

Historically, such lows (e.g., March 2025 at ~12-15) have preceded sharp rebounds, with Bitcoin rallying 40-60% within 1-3 months as “weaker hands” exit and institutions accumulate. The strategy of “Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed” has delivered outsized returns, as extreme fear zones correlate with undervaluation and mean reversion.

Expect continued pressure on prices, with Bitcoin potentially testing $98,000-$100,000 support amid tax-loss harvesting and year-end liquidity squeezes. Altcoins could see 20-30% further drawdowns, exacerbating BTC dominance currently ~59%.

Analysts view this as a local bottom, with long-term holders (e.g., whales) scooping up supply. Renewed ETF inflows or macro stabilization could spark a November rally, targeting $110,000-$120,000 by month-end.

The parallel to March isn’t exact—Bitcoin is still ~20% higher year-to-date—but the sentiment mirror suggests potential for a similar “fear bottom” if historical patterns hold. On X the reaction is a mix of dread and opportunism, with users like Strongviking66 calling it a “LOONG time” since such lows and questioning if it’s a classic dip to buy, while Mohsinmunir urges stacking “utility coins” over memes.

Bitcoin’s Relative Underperformance vs. Equities at a 3-Year Low

Bitcoin’s performance relative to equities measured via ratios like BTC/S&P 500 or BTC/Nasdaq has weakened to levels not seen since late 2022, during the FTX collapse and broader bear market.

In Q3 2025 alone, BTC underperformed the S&P 500 by over 15% amid profit-taking after early-year gains, shifting Fed policy expectations, and inflation trends favoring traditional assets.

Correlation data shows BTC’s linkage to U.S. equities (e.g., S&P 500) spiking to 0.90 during risk-off periods like May-June 2025 geopolitical flares, but with BTC lagging—its volatility remains 5.1x that of global equities 54% vs. 10.5% annualized.

This relative weakness stems from: Tax-loss harvesting: Crypto’s YTD lag leaves more “losses” to harvest vs. stocks, pressuring December selling bearish short-term. Equities and metals drew inflows on Fed pivot hopes, while BTC saw outflows amid ETF profit-taking.

Recession fears and equity volatility could drag BTC deeper in Q3-Q4 2025, per on-chain analysis, though stabilizing conditions might flip this. Despite the gloom, analysts like those at InvestingHaven see this as a “mid-cycle pause,” with RSI at 66 not overheated and forecasts targeting $130K-$140K by year-end if ETF buying resumes.

Extreme fear + relative undervaluation often signals contrarian entry points—historically, dips below 20 on the index have preceded 50%+ BTC rallies within 3-6 months. Stay calm; markets reward patience here.

Nigerian Bank Fraud Declines in Volume But Surges in Financial Impact in Q1 2025 — FITC Report

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

According to the latest “Fraud and Forgeries in Nigerian Banks” report by FITC, the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 recorded a sharp drop in the number of reported fraud cases but a dramatic rise in the financial value of these incidents.

FITC data shows that Nigerian banks reported 12,347 fraud cases in Q1 2025, marking a 33.8% decrease from the 18,672 cases recorded in Q4 2024. A closer breakdown reveals that most incidents occurred through Computer/Web channels (7,361 cases), followed by Mobile transactions (2,875 cases) and POS terminals (1,559 cases), a pattern consistent with trends in the latter quarters of 2024.

Despite the decline in case numbers, the financial impact surged significantly. The total amount involved in fraud schemes rose by 242.74%, increasing from approximately N6.5 billion in Q4 2024 to N22.27 billion in Q1 2025. Correspondingly, total losses climbed by 137.2%, rising from N1.39 billion to N3.3 billion.

The report also highlights a reduction in fraud participation by outsiders, which fell by 33.04%, from 16,408 cases in Q4 2024 to 10,896 in Q1 2025. Internal (staff-related) cases dropped as well, declining from 91 cases to 63, representing a 30.8% decrease. Currently, 28 employees are under investigation, while 23 staff members had their employment terminated, down 28.1% from the 32 terminations in the previous quarter.

In terms of financial weight, Computer/Web fraud was the most significant, accounting for N10.6 billion, or 47.7% of total fraud amounts recorded in Q1 2025. This was followed by miscellaneous and other fraud types including eNaira scams, autopay fraud, cash suppression, and forged deposit slips collectively valued at N5.97 billion (26.8%). Mobile app–related fraud ranked third at N2.3 billion (10.3%). Together, these three categories represented 84.8% of all fraud amounts for the quarter.

When examining losses, Mobile app fraud contributed the highest losses, accounting for N1.4 billion, or roughly 43% of total losses. Losses from forged cheques stood at N837.7 million (25.4%), while fraudulent withdrawals amounted to N584.85 million (17.8%).

Channels and Methods Used in Fraud

Fraud in Q1 2025 occurred across multiple outlets, including ATMs, online platforms, bank branches, and POS terminals.

  • Card-based fraud fell by 29.4%, from 16,955 cases to 11,972.

  • Cash-related incidents declined by 30% (536 to 375 cases).

  • Cheque-related fraud, however, increased by 43.8%, rising from 32 to 46 cases.

Despite the decline in case volumes, the financial amounts involved rose sharply across nearly all channels:

  • Computer/Web fraud amounts surged by 362.3% (N2.3 billion to N10.6 billion).

  • Mobile fraud increased by 124.7% (N1 billion to N2.3 billion).

  • Bank branch fraud amounts rose by 311.5% (N1.9 billion to nearly N8 billion).

  • POS fraud amounts climbed by 85.8%. Only ATM-related fraud saw a decline, dropping by 59.8% from N61.3 million to N24.7 million.

Similarly, fraud losses across channels rose sharply for Computer/Web, Bank Branch, and Mobile platforms:

  • Bank branch losses: up 112.3% to N1.7 billion.

  • Computer/Web losses: up 152.3% to N203.2 million.

  • Mobile losses: up 309.8% to N1.4 billion.
    Conversely, ATM losses fell by 95%, and POS losses dropped by 93%.

Fraud via Instruments: Cheques, Cash & Cards

  • Forged cheque fraud: up 196.8%, reaching N1.1 billion.

  • Card fraud amounts: up 306.2%, from N3.5 billion to N14.3 billion.

  • Cash fraud amounts: up 301.2%, rising to N6.8 billion.

Losses followed a similar upward trajectory:

  • Cash fraud losses rose 16.2%.

  • Card fraud losses increased 211.9%.

  • Cheque fraud losses saw the largest jump, rising 1,036% to N837 million.

Conclusion

Overall, Q1 2025 recorded fewer fraud attempts but significantly higher financial damage. Total reported cases fell by 33.8%, yet the amount involved climbed to N22.27 billion, and losses increased to N3.3 billion. The findings highlight a shift toward fewer but more sophisticated and high-value fraud operations across Nigeria’s financial sector.

Impact of Rising No-Cut Odds and Data Disruptions on Cryptocurrency Markets

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The odds of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its December 10 FOMC meeting—meaning no rate cut—stand at approximately 50%, based on the latest CME FedWatch Tool data derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.

This marks a notable increase from earlier in the month, when the probability was around 36-37% as of November 12 . The implied probability of a 25 basis point cut bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75% has thus fallen to 50.4%, reflecting trader sentiment amid sticky inflation and a cooling labor market.

The cryptocurrency market—valued at approximately $3.8 trillion—has entered a period of heightened volatility and caution, driven by the Federal Reserve’s internal divisions on a December rate cut now ~50% odds of no action and the irrecoverable loss of October CPI and jobs data due to the U.S. government shutdown.

These factors amplify macroeconomic uncertainty, reducing liquidity for risk assets like crypto while fostering a “wait-and-see” sentiment among traders. Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped below $102,000, erasing recent gains, while Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins have fallen 4-6% in the past week.

This shift comes on the heels of the Fed’s October 29 rate cut 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, where Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December easing “is not a foregone conclusion,” citing internal debates and persistent inflation above the 2% target.

Odds have eroded further from highs of over 90% pre-October meeting, driven by hawkish signals from officials like New York Fed President John Williams, who highlighted the “balancing act” between inflation resilience and labor softening.

A no-cut scenario now ~50% priced in could pressure rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate, with models suggesting a potential 1-2% S&P 500 pullback. Broader GDP growth estimates for Q4 2025 may dip to 1.8% if easing stalls.

Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield has ticked up ~10 basis points this week, reflecting higher-for-longer expectations. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket echo this, pricing a ~50/50 split for two vs. one total cuts in 2025.

Status of October 2025 CPI and Jobs Data

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown—now in its second month since October 1—has severely disrupted data collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). No collection occurred during shutdown; White House confirms it “will likely not be released even after reopening” due to irrecoverable price surveys.

September CPI (delayed to Oct. 24) showed a 0.3% monthly rise and 3% YoY, but October’s absence leaves a gap for Fed decisions. BLS surveys halted; White House states the report “will likely not be released” post-shutdown, as payroll and household data can’t be retroactively gathered.

Private alternatives like ADP show modest October hiring +~14k weekly avg., but lack BLS comprehensiveness. September jobs were released pre-shutdown on Oct. 3. Powell has noted this creates a “challenging” data void for the December meeting, potentially forcing reliance on private proxies or qualitative assessments.

The shutdown’s politicization—blamed on Democrats by the White House—risks long-term damage to statistical integrity. The rising ~50% odds of no December cut underscore Fed caution amid data blackouts, amplifying uncertainty for investors.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a near-even split ~50% for a 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%, up from 36% earlier this week, reflecting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on persistent inflation risks amid a softening labor market.

This hawkish tilt—echoed by officials like John Williams—signals fewer easings in 2025 overall, potentially totaling just 50-75 bps versus earlier expectations of 100 bps.

Lower rate cut probabilities correlate with reduced investor appetite for high-risk assets. BTC has declined ~8% from its November 5 peak of $110,000, with ETH down ~10% to $3,800. Altcoins like SOL and XRP have seen sharper drops (5-7%), as capital rotates to safer havens like gold or Treasuries.

Over $600 million in crypto positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, per CoinGlass data. A no-cut scenario strengthens the U.S. dollar (DXY up ~2% this week) and elevates Treasury yields (10-year at 4.2%), draining liquidity from speculative markets.

Crypto, as a “risk-on” asset, suffers most during such tightening—historically, BTC underperforms by 10-15% in the month following paused Fed easings. Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi mirror the 50/50 odds, with traders pricing in only one additional cut for all of 2025.

If the Fed holds steady on December 10, models suggest a further 3-5% BTC pullback, potentially testing $95,000 support. Conversely, dovish surprises (e.g., from upcoming Powell speeches) could spark a 5-8% relief rally, as lower odds leave room for upside.

The shutdown—now resolved after 43 days—prevented BLS surveys, rendering October’s CPI (inflation) and jobs reports “likely never releasable,” per White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. This creates a “data blackout,” forcing the Fed to rely on proxies like ADP payrolls (+14k average) or qualitative assessments, which Powell called “challenging.”

Without fresh data, markets lack clarity on inflation September’s 3% YoY as baseline or employment trends, leading to erratic swings. Crypto’s 24-hour volatility index (BVOL) has surged 20% to 45, mirroring 2022’s data-gap episodes when BTC volatility hit 60+.

The absence risks mispriced Fed expectations, with X traders warning of “macro overhang” complicating policy reads. The data void could shave 1-2 percentage points off Q4 GDP growth estimates now ~1.8%, per Goldman Sachs, indirectly pressuring crypto via reduced risk appetite.

Shutdown fallout has already delayed regulatory progress, like Senate crypto market structure bills, stalling institutional adoption. Policymakers are “flying blind,” increasing the chance of a conservative December stance. This heightens tail risks for crypto, where liquidity fears (e.g., continued QT) could cap upside.

Private data suggests modest October hiring, but without BLS confirmation, inflation “stickiness” narratives dominate, favoring a hold. A surprise cut (still 50% priced in) or end to QT on December 1 could inject liquidity, boosting BTC toward $110,000-$115,000 by year-end.

Prolonged uncertainty from data loss could extend the correction, with BTC dominance rising to 58% as alts bleed. Leverage in futures open interest down to $140 billion amplifies downside. Diversify into stablecoins for hedges; monitor Fed speeches this week for clues. Historically, crypto rebounds ~15% post-data normalization, but 2025’s tariff disruptions add layers of caution.

Sub-Saharan Africa Becomes The Third-Fastest Growing Crypto Market as Retail Activity Accelerates

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has emerged as the third-fastest-growing crypto region globally, according to recent Chainalysis data. Although the region remains the smallest crypto economy in absolute terms, its adoption patterns reveal meaningful insights into grassroots usage and the expanding integration of digital assets into everyday financial life.

In the 2025 Geography of crypto report, it revealed that between July 2024 and June 2025, SSA received over $205 billion in on-chain value, representing a robust 52% year-over-year increase. This growth places the region behind only APAC and Latin America in global adoption momentum.

A Surge Driven by Economic Pressures and Local Realities

In March 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a sharp spike in crypto activity, with monthly on-chain volumes reaching nearly $25 billion, a striking contrast to declining activity in most other regions at the time. This rise was primarily driven by Nigeria, following a sudden currency devaluation that pushed many users to seek crypto as a hedge against inflation.

The region is increasingly distinguishing itself as a strong retail market. Analysis of transfer sizes shows that SSA records a higher share of transactions under $10,000 than the global average. Between July 2024 and June 2025, over 8% of all value transferred in the region fell under this threshold, compared to 6% globally.

This trend reflects the region’s ongoing financial inclusion challenges. Despite rapid growth in mobile money, a significant share of the population remains unbanked—creating fertile ground for crypto as an alternative financial tool.

Institutional Activity Gaining Strength

Nigeria and South Africa, the region’s largest markets, continue to exhibit a strong institutional presence. Much of this activity is tied to the growing B2B payments sector, particularly cross-border transactions.

Stablecoins in particular are widely used in high-value transfers that support sectors like energy, merchant trade, and logistics, especially between Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Regular multimillion-dollar stablecoin flows point to crypto’s utility as a fast, reliable settlement layer where traditional financial systems are slow or fragmented.

Nigeria

Nigeria leads the region with over $92.1 billion in crypto value received, nearly three times that of South Africa. Its dominance is driven by:

  • A youthful, tech-savvy population

  • Persistent inflation

  • Restricted dollar access

  • Increasing reliance on stablecoins and bitcoin as financial hedging tools

South Africa

South Africa, on the other hand, stands out for its mature regulatory framework. With hundreds of licensed virtual asset service providers (VASPs), the country offers institutional players regulatory certainty and infrastructure to operate confidently.

Large-ticket transactions dominate the market, often influenced by arbitrage trading and other sophisticated strategies. Financial institutions—including Absa Bank—are developing crypto-focused offerings such as custody and stablecoin products, marking a shift from experimentation to formal product development.

Bitcoin Dominates in Asset Preferences

Crypto purchase patterns across centralized exchanges reveal striking trends:

  • In Nigeria, bitcoin accounts for 89% of fiat purchases.

  • In South Africa, bitcoin makes up 74%.

This suggests that bitcoin functions not only as an investment but also as a store of value and primary entry point for new crypto users in the region. Stablecoin adoption, especially USDT, is also more pronounced in Nigeria, where it accounts for 7% of fiat purchases. This reflects growing reliance on digital dollars amid unstable exchange rates and limited access to official FX.

South Africa, meanwhile, shows a higher share of XRP and ETH purchases, indicative of a more speculative, investment-driven user base with greater access to centralized exchanges.

A Region Redefining the Global Crypto Narrative

The analysis positions Sub-Saharan Africa as a critical proving ground for crypto’s practical utility. Beyond speculation, digital assets in the region function as adaptive tools that respond to inflation, currency instability, and financial exclusion.

The 52% growth rate signals a deeper transition underway. From Nigeria’s economic pressures to South Africa’s regulatory maturity, the region is demonstrating how crypto can evolve from an alternative investment to a strategic financial infrastructure.

Conclusion

Sub-Saharan Africa is not merely joining the global crypto revolution, it is reshaping it. The region’s blend of economic challenges, youthful demographics, mobile-first culture, and institutional innovation is accelerating a transformation in how digital assets are used.

As regulatory frameworks continue to solidify and institutional participation deepens, SSA is positioned to become a model for real-world crypto adoption, redefining digital finance from the ground up.

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