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Erebor is Raising Fresh Capital at a $4.35B Valuation, as Phantom Launches Prediction Markets Powered by Kalshi

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Erebor, a digital banking startup co-founded by Palmer Luckey known for founding Oculus and leading Anduril Industries and backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, is raising fresh capital at a $4.35 billion valuation.

The company recently secured $350 million in a funding round led by Lux Capital, with participation from existing investors like 8VC and Haun Ventures.

This more than doubles its previous valuation and comes on the heels of key regulatory milestones, including FDIC approval for deposit insurance last week and preliminary conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in October to operate as a national charter bank.

Positioned to serve Silicon Valley’s tech ecosystem—particularly in crypto, AI, defense, and aerospace—Erebor aims to fill voids left by the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

The name draws from J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings,” referencing the Lonely Mountain. The news has sparked discussions about its potential as a “crypto superbank,” with users noting the strong backing and timely approvals amid growing interest in digital finance.

The 2023 collapses of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate, and Signature created a massive gap in banking services for high-risk sectors like crypto, AI, defense, and aerospace startups. Many traditional banks remain wary of these clients due to regulatory scrutiny and volatility.

Erebor positions itself as a direct replacement: a fully regulated national bank offering insured deposits, stablecoin settlements, crypto collateral loans, and tailored services. With recent FDIC deposit insurance approval and conditional OCC charter, it’s poised to capture billions in deposits previously handled by failed banks.

Easier access to payroll, payments, and lending for underserved startups, potentially accelerating innovation in frontier tech. This could reduce “debanking” risks that have plagued crypto firms.

The sharp valuation jump reflects hot investor demand for regulated on-ramps to digital assets, especially stablecoins. Backers like Lux Capital, Founders Fund (Peter Thiel), 8VC (Joe Lonsdale), and Haun Ventures are betting on Erebor as a “crypto superbank” in a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment.

Timing aligns with post-2024 election shifts: greater crypto clarity, stablecoin legislation progress, and Trump administration’s pro-digital asset stance. Signals maturing crypto-finance integration.

Erebor joins a wave e.g., Coinbase, Circle, Ripple seeking charters, potentially normalizing crypto in traditional banking and attracting more institutional capital. Pre-launch valuation of $4.35B bank not yet operational; expected early 2026 is aggressive, driven by founder pedigree and regulatory momentum.
Palmer Luckey has emphasized ultra-conservative practices.

Concentration in volatile sectors could echo SVB’s pitfalls like interest rate sensitivity, depositor flight. Critics note potential for another taxpayer bailout if mismanaged; high valuation leaves limited room for error.
Impact: Success could validate billionaire-backed fintech disruption; failure might reignite regulatory backlash against crypto banks.

A compliant, insured bank could boost stablecoin adoption, on-chain finance, and defense/AI funding—areas Luckey/Thiel prioritize. Challenges incumbents like Lead Bank, Cross River and neobanks; may pressure big banks to re-engage crypto clients.

X discussions highlight excitement “next crypto superbank,” “BTC banks coming soon” alongside hype, reflecting bullish crypto narrative in late 2025. Erebor’s raise underscores a pivotal moment: regulated banking catching up to crypto/tech innovation, potentially unlocking growth but with inherent concentration risks reminiscent of past crises. Launch in early 2026 will be the real test.

Phantom Officially Launches Prediction Markets Powered by Kalshi

Phantom has announced that its Prediction Markets feature—powered by the regulated platform Kalshi—is rolled out to 100% of eligible users. Trade simple Yes/No positions on real-world events (politics, sports, crypto prices, culture, economics, etc.) directly inside the Phantom mobile app.

Fund trades using any Solana token in your wallet, including the CASH stablecoin—no need for separate accounts or external deposits. Real-time odds, live event updates, and push notifications for settlements.

Every market has a live community chat for discussing sentiment and ideas as odds shift. Built on Solana for fast, low-cost transactions, with tokenized positions referencing Kalshi’s regulated markets.

This integration makes Phantom one of the first major crypto wallets to embed regulated prediction markets natively, turning it into a more comprehensive financial hub alongside swaps, perps, and staking.

Availability depends on your jurisdiction not everywhere due to regulations, and trading involves risk of loss.To get started: Open the Phantom app > Tap “Predictions” > Browse markets. Phantom’s full rollout of Prediction Markets powered by the CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi marks a significant evolution in crypto wallets.

By embedding regulated real-world event trading directly into a wallet with over 20 million users primarily on Solana, this feature has broad implications across user experience, the crypto ecosystem, regulation, and competition.

Trading Yes/No positions on events (politics, sports, crypto prices, culture, economics) is now as seamless as swapping tokens—no need for separate accounts, external deposits, or navigating complex interfaces.

Users can fund trades with any Solana token including CASH stablecoin or even memecoins, leveraging Solana’s fast, low-cost transactions. Social features like live community chats per market add engagement, turning trading into a communal activity with real-time sentiment tracking.

Lowers barriers for crypto natives and newcomers, potentially driving higher wallet retention and daily active users. Wallets are evolving into “super apps” (swaps, perps, staking, now predictions), making crypto more intuitive and sticky.

Increases on-chain activity and token utility on Solana, as trades settle quickly and cheaply. Positions Solana as a hub for consumer-facing finance apps, blending DeFi with real-world assets (RWA-like event contracts via tokenized positions).

Could attract more liquidity and users to Solana, reinforcing its edge in high-throughput use cases. Short-term price impact on $SOL appears muted, but long-term engagement may support ecosystem growth. Kalshi’s CFTC regulation provides legitimacy, offering users access to compliant event contracts without direct exposure to unregulated platforms.

Tokenized positions reference Kalshi’s markets, combining blockchain efficiency with regulatory oversight. Its elps legitimize crypto as a gateway to traditional finance tools. Attracts “super power” crypto users as Kalshi calls them to regulated markets, potentially accelerating mainstream integration.

However, ongoing state-level challenges (e.g., gambling classifications in Connecticut, Massachusetts) highlight regulatory risks. Directly challenges crypto-native platforms like Polymarket which partnered with MetaMask on Ethereum.

Kalshi gains massive distribution through Phantom’s user base, aiming for integrations in “every large crypto app.” Wallets/exchanges (MetaMask-Polymarket, potential Coinbase-Kalshi) are racing to embed prediction markets.

Intensifies rivalry between regulated (Kalshi) and decentralized (Polymarket) models. Could fragment liquidity but also grow the overall sector, with volumes already surging, Kalshi hit billions in 2025. Availability restricted by jurisdiction not in the US via wallet integration due to licensing; direct Kalshi platform only in permitted areas.

Potential total loss on incorrect predictions, plus fees and volatility. While innovative, it underscores trading risks and regulatory fragmentation—users must check eligibility. This launch accelerates the convergence of crypto wallets with real-world finance, making prediction markets a core feature rather than a niche.

It strengthens Phantom’s position as a multi-chain financial hub and signals growing maturity in blending DeFi with regulated products. For Solana and crypto broadly, it’s a step toward broader utility beyond speculation.

Citadel to Return $5bn in 2025 Profits to Investors, Trimming Assets to $67bn Amid Subdued Performance

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Citadel, the multistrategy hedge fund powerhouse founded by billionaire Ken Griffin in 1990, is set to distribute approximately $5 billion in profits earned during 2025 to its investors in early 2026, according to a person familiar with the matter quoted by CNBC.

This partial return of gains—rather than a full payout—reflects the firm’s strategic approach to capital management, aiming to align its asset base with a more limited opportunity set anticipated in the coming year amid economic uncertainties. The firm’s flagship Wellington fund, a cornerstone of its multistrategy platform, delivered a net return of 9.3% through mid-December 2025, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity as performance details are private.

While respectable, this marks Citadel’s weakest annual performance since 2018, underperforming the S&P 500’s robust 18% gain for the year. Key headwinds included misfired wagers on natural gas prices, which fizzled amid volatile energy markets, though the fund’s diversified strategies across equities, fixed income, commodities, quantitative trading, and credit helped mitigate broader losses.

For context, Wellington posted a 1.4% gain in November alone, boosting its year-to-date return to 8.3% at that point, according to earlier reports. Citadel’s Global Fixed Income fund complemented this with a 1.1% return in November, bringing its 2025 performance to 8.5%, demonstrating resilience in a year marked by interest rate fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. Overall, the firm’s tactical trading and risk management prowess shone through, even as peers like Balyasny Asset Management and ExodusPoint Capital Management navigated similar challenges—Balyasny’s multistrategy fund, for instance, returned around 7% through November, while ExodusPoint lagged at 3.5%.

The $5 billion payout will reduce Citadel’s assets under management to $67 billion from the current $72 billion, a deliberate drawdown to enhance agility and return potential in a potentially choppy 2026 environment. This practice is not routine but has become a hallmark of Griffin’s leadership: Since 2017, Citadel has returned a cumulative $32 billion in profits to investors, including this latest tranche, prioritizing efficiency over unchecked growth. Such moves underscore the firm’s philosophy of constraining capital when opportunities appear limited, allowing for more targeted deployments in high-conviction trades.

Citadel’s enduring success is unrivaled in the hedge fund industry. According to LCH Investments’ annual rankings, the firm has generated $83 billion in net gains for investors since inception through 2024—far surpassing competitors like Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates ($58 billion) and George Soros’ Quantum Fund ($43 billion). With 2025’s contributions, that lifetime total is poised to exceed $88 billion when updated figures are released in January 2026, solidifying Citadel’s position as the most profitable hedge fund in history.

In 2024 alone, Citadel notched $8.1 billion in net gains, though D.E. Shaw led the pack that year with $11.1 billion, highlighting the competitive landscape. Founded with just $4.6 million in a Harvard dorm room, Citadel has evolved into a Miami-headquartered behemoth employing over 3,000 professionals globally, renowned for its pod-based structure that fosters internal competition among trading teams.

Under Griffin—who personally amassed a net worth exceeding $40 billion by mid-2025 through savvy investments in art, real estate, and philanthropy—the firm has consistently delivered annualized returns of around 19% for Wellington since launch, blending quantitative models with fundamental analysis. The 2025 performance, while below Citadel’s lofty standards, occurred against a backdrop of global market volatility: U.S. equities surged on AI-driven optimism, but sectors like energy and commodities faced headwinds from supply gluts and geopolitical risks. Natural gas bets, in particular, soured as prices plummeted amid mild weather and ample inventories, costing the fund potential upside.

Still, Citadel’s risk controls, honed through past crises like the 2008 financial meltdown, when it returned 38%, ensured steady navigation.

Industry peers have taken note. Millennium Management, another multistrategy giant, returned about 8% in 2025 through November, while D.E. Shaw focused on quantitative edges to edge out competitors.

Citadel’s distribution strategy contrasts with asset gatherers like Blackstone, emphasizing returns per dollar over scale, which has endeared it to institutional investors seeking alpha without bloat. Beyond performance, Citadel’s culture and talent magnet status bolster its edge. In 2025, it ranked as the “Ideal Employer” in hedge funds per eFinancialCareers surveys, attracting top quants and traders with competitive compensation, average pay exceeding $500,000, and cutting-edge tech infrastructure. Griffin’s high-profile moves, including a $50 million donation to Harvard in October and ongoing art acquisitions (his collection is valued at over $2 billion), further enhance the firm’s prestige.

The Faded Value of Twitter (yes X) Blue Checkmark and Why I Cancelled My Subscription

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From April 2026, the blue check on my name will disappear on Twitter (yes X). I have canceled the subscription because, to me, it no longer carries real value.

I did not study Economics in secondary school, not because I did not want to, but because WAEC capped subjects at nine, and I had chosen Further Mathematics which was the pair according to my principal, legendary Mr. Ogbonnia (RIP).

So, I took the extra mile: while still in school, I sat for GCE to clear the subjects I could not fit in. Economics was one of them, and I still remember learning demand from OA Lawal’s textbook. One simple lesson was there: some types of value could be anchored on scarcity and meaning.

So I ask: why should I pay for a checkmark to be “verified” when unverifiable-entities, and sometimes unreal accounts can buy the same badge? When “unverifiable” can be verified for a fee, verification loses its meaning. Some people comment here and I hope they cannot discover my feed. And the painful thing is that some of these unreal accounts are verified! Why must you verify “I am not NAME” when the same person has declared that he or she is not the central bank governor?

Good People, the moment X turned verification into a commodity, it destroyed the very value that checkmark was meant to signal. And I do not like wasting money.

So when the current subscription expires in April, the checkmark will go. It changes nothing for me, even if it means fewer people reading my posts. I do not write to be read; I write to be liberated. And even if no one reads, I will still write. Writing has been my hobby ever since I founded, edited, and published FUTO Bubbles, a campus print magazine, back in my undergraduate days.

That said, I hope you will keep checking my X feed!

When Your Crew Becomes a Lawsuit: Navigating Construction Labor Laws Without Getting Burned

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Construction companies operate in one of the most heavily regulated employment environments in American business. Federal wage laws, state-specific labor regulations, union contract obligations, and OSHA safety requirements create overlapping compliance demands that shift depending on project type, location, and funding source. A single misclassified worker or miscalculated prevailing wage can trigger investigations that examine years of payroll records, resulting in six-figure settlements and penalties. The complexity intensifies for companies working across state lines or handling both union and non-union projects. Understanding these requirements isn’t optional legal theory—it’s essential risk management that protects your business from violations that can erase years of profitable work.

Prevailing Wage Compliance on Public Projects

Any construction company pursuing government contracts must master prevailing wage requirements that transform straightforward payroll into complex compliance exercises. The Davis-Bacon Act mandates that workers on federally funded projects receive wages and benefits matching those prevailing for similar work in the geographic area. These rates vary by county, job classification, and even specific tasks within broader trade categories. A laborer performing general work has a different rate than one operating equipment, and accurate classification requires understanding exactly what workers do throughout each shift.

State prevailing wage laws add another layer for projects funded by state or local governments. Some states follow federal Davis-Bacon methodology while others establish their own rate-setting processes. The rates themselves can differ substantially between federal and state determinations for the same location and trade. Companies must identify which prevailing wage law applies to each project based on funding source, then ensure payroll calculations use the correct rate schedules. Mistakes mean back wages owed to workers plus penalties that can reach double the underpayment amount.

Certified payroll reporting documents compliance with prevailing wage requirements through weekly submissions showing each worker’s classification, hours worked, wages paid, and fringe benefits provided. These reports face audit scrutiny where investigators examine time records, pay stubs, and fringe benefit documentation to verify accuracy. The administrative burden of tracking this information across multiple projects and jurisdictions creates substantial overhead, but it’s legally required for government work. Using CRM software for construction that integrates time tracking with payroll helps maintain the detailed records needed for compliant certified payroll submissions.

Worker Classification and Independent Contractor Rules

Misclassifying employees as independent contractors represents perhaps the most common and costly labor law violation in construction. The appeal is obvious—treating workers as contractors eliminates payroll taxes, workers’ compensation premiums, and benefit obligations. However, the legal tests for proper classification focus on the degree of control and independence, not what parties prefer to call the relationship. If your company dictates work schedules, provides tools and materials, supervises job performance, and integrates workers into regular operations, those workers are almost certainly employees regardless of signed agreements claiming otherwise.

The consequences extend far beyond simply paying back taxes. Misclassified workers become entitled to overtime they weren’t paid, workers’ compensation coverage they lacked, and unemployment benefits they were denied. State labor departments increasingly target construction specifically through audits and investigations designed to identify misclassification. Some states presume all workers are employees unless companies prove otherwise through specific criteria, completely reversing the burden of proof. Criminal charges can follow willful violations where investigators believe misclassification was intentional tax evasion rather than innocent mistake.

Legitimate independent contractor relationships do exist when workers truly operate as separate businesses with their own tools, insurance, established trade, and ability to profit or lose based on their own business decisions. These genuine contractors work for multiple clients simultaneously and maintain control over how they complete contracted work. The key is ensuring the actual working relationship matches legal independence requirements, not just having contracts that claim independence while the reality resembles traditional employment.

Union Contract Obligations and Jurisdictional Rules

Construction companies working on union projects must comply with collective bargaining agreements that govern far more than just wages. These contracts specify crew composition requirements, work rules, hiring procedures, discipline processes, and grievance mechanisms. Violating contract terms can trigger work stoppages, grievances, and arbitration proceedings that disrupt projects and strain labor relations. Even companies primarily doing non-union work must understand union obligations when occasionally taking on projects covered by union agreements.

Jurisdictional boundaries between trades create particularly complex compliance challenges. Union agreements typically specify which trades perform which tasks—electricians install electrical components while carpenters handle certain framing work, and crossing these boundaries without permission triggers jurisdictional disputes. Some agreements include flexibility provisions allowing work assignments across trades under specific circumstances, but these nuances require careful attention. Project delays caused by jurisdictional disputes over who can legally perform particular tasks can derail schedules and budgets while the parties argue over contract interpretation.

Right-to-work states add complexity by allowing workers to opt out of union membership while still benefiting from collectively bargained wages and conditions. Companies must navigate relationships with both union members and non-members performing similar roles, maintaining fairness while respecting individual choices about membership. These dynamics affect hiring practices, job assignments, and workplace culture in ways requiring thoughtful management to maintain productive environments and avoid unfair labor practice charges.

Safety Regulations and Documentation Requirements

OSHA standards mandate specific safety equipment, training, and procedures with penalties ranging from minor citations to criminal charges for willful violations causing serious injury or death. Fall protection, excavation safety, electrical standards, and equipment operation rules apply across most construction sites, while specialized requirements govern activities like roofing, confined space entry, and demolition. Compliance protects workers and shields companies from liability, but it also requires ongoing investment in equipment, training programs, and safety supervision.

Documentation proves critical during OSHA investigations and injury claims. Training records, equipment inspection logs, safety meeting attendance, toolbox talks, and hazard assessments demonstrate that companies took reasonable precautions to protect workers. Without documentation, companies struggle to defend against allegations of ignoring known hazards or failing to train workers properly. The absence of records often leads investigators to assume non-compliance, shifting the burden to companies to prove they actually conducted required safety programs.

Building Compliance Into Daily Operations

Sustainable labor law compliance requires integrating requirements into standard business processes rather than treating compliance as separate concern handled reactively. Establishing clear policies for worker classification, implementing robust time tracking systems, maintaining current safety training, and documenting everything creates operational habits that prevent violations. Regular internal audits catch problems before they escalate into expensive enforcement actions or lawsuits.

The construction industry’s competitive pressures create temptation to cut corners on labor costs, but short-term savings never justify long-term risks. Companies built on compliance foundations operate confidently, attract quality workers, and avoid the constant anxiety of potential investigations. This stability allows focus on delivering projects profitably while maintaining positive relationships with workers, unions, and regulators—the actual keys to sustainable construction business success.

 

Solstice ICO is Live and Creating Buzz on Crypto Twitter

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Solstice— a Solana-based DeFi protocol focused on institutional-grade yield via its USX stablecoin and YieldVault, with over $325M+ TVL. No VC allocations, no private rounds, no discounts — fully community-focused with equal terms.

Priority allocations based on Legion merit scores and Solstice ecosystem participation for long-term USX/eUSX holders, Flares points earners. Protocol revenue funds $SLX buybacks and burns tied to TVL milestones, e.g., $1B triggers burns.

Not open to US or UK investors; KYC may be required. The sale emphasizes alignment: $SLX is a governance/utility token for voting, premium features, and revenue sharing in a delta-neutral yield ecosystem that’s delivered consistent returns— zero negative months in multi-year backtests.

Community sentiment on X is largely bullish, with discussions around fair launch, strong fundamentals, and post-sale liquidity provision opportunities. Some note potential short-term pressure from the 50% unlock but praise the no-VC model. To participate: Head to Legion’s site, connect a Solana wallet, and check eligibility/allocation.

Solstice YieldVault Mechanics

Solstice’s YieldVault is a permissionless, on-chain yield-generating engine on Solana that provides institutional-grade, delta-neutral returns using the protocol’s synthetic stablecoin USX.

It democratizes access to sophisticated trading strategies typically reserved for hedge funds, with a proven track record of consistent positive returns, no negative months over multi-year backtests and live performance, ~11-21% APY depending on market conditions, high Sharpe ratio.

The base synthetic stablecoin, fully overcollateralized backed by fiat-stablecoins like USDC/USDT initially, pegged 1:1 to USD. It’s designed for velocity—swaps, payments, and DeFi composability—while maintaining stability.

eUSX: The yield-bearing token. A non-rebasing, appreciating asset that represents your proportional share of the YieldVault’s net asset value (NAV). Lock USX into the YieldVault via the app at solstice.finance. You receive an equal amount of eUSX, 1:1 mint ratio initially.

Your USX is deployed into the vault’s strategies. The vault uses delta-neutral strategies to generate returns independent of crypto price direction. Long spot assets while shorting perpetual futures or vice versa across multiple exchanges and pairs. Collects funding payments every ~8 hours from market imbalances, perps traders pay spot holders when crowded.

Hedged staking/positions: Balanced exposure to capture premiums without net directional risk. Spread across multiple CEXs/DEXs for scale and efficiency, with automated rebalancing.

Yield is dripped back into the vault as additional USX rewards. eUSX appreciates over time relative to USX exchange rate increases periodically, auto-compounding yields without rebasing. Your principal USX enters a cooldown period to ensure fairness and prevent gaming epochs/rewards.

During cooldown: No further yield accrual. After cooldown: Withdraw full USX (principal + accrued yield reflected in the improved eUSX: USX ratio). Zero net directional exposure. Strict caps per strategy, collateral buffers, and automated monitoring. Battle-tested for all market cycles.

eUSX is liquid and usable in Solana DeFi like lending on Kamino, LP on Raydium/Orca, yield trading on Exponent while still earning base vault yield + partner rewards. Performance highlights is around 11.5% average, 21.5% in 2024, 3-year Sharpe ~7.

No negative months; stable baseline yield. Earn Flares (points) for deposits, convertible to $SLX governance token. Multipliers for longer holds or partner integrations. Smart contract risks audited, but not zero.

While delta-neutral minimizes price risk, funding rates can fluctuate; extreme events could impact. Cooldown on withdrawals reduces instant liquidity. Market/volatility risks in underlying perps/spot trades.

YieldVault turns idle stables into productive capital with minimal user intervention. For hands-on access: Mint USX > Deposit in YieldVault > Hold/use eUSX. Always DYOR; yields vary with markets.