Tesla’s ambitious robotaxi rollout in Austin has hit a wave of skepticism, as troubling incidents during its first public test have cast a shadow over what was meant to be a watershed moment for the company’s self-driving ambitions.
While the pilot drew initial buzz and was hailed by analysts as a major revenue opportunity, footage from test riders now suggests the technology may not be ready for the roads—raising questions not only about Tesla’s timeline but also its core technical strategy.
The test, conducted with select Tesla fans in Austin using Model Y vehicles outfitted with the latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, was supposed to be the company’s breakthrough moment in autonomous mobility. But within days, clips emerged showing erratic maneuvers: a robotaxi swerving into oncoming traffic, another stopping abruptly in the middle of a street, and one dropping a passenger off dangerously in the middle of a multi-lane road. In one video, a human monitor had to forcibly halt the vehicle to avoid a collision with a reversing truck.
Analysts now say the shortfalls could undercut Musk’s promises to turn Tesla into a full-fledged ride-hailing business with “millions” of autonomous Teslas generating recurring revenue by late 2026.
A Question of Cameras vs. Lidar
The incidents have also intensified the long-running debate about Tesla’s camera-only approach to autonomy. Unlike competitors such as Waymo, Tesla has deliberately excluded lidar and radar from its self-driving stack, betting on computer vision and neural networks to perceive and navigate the environment. That approach now appears under question.
Waymo, the autonomous driving arm of Alphabet, has faced its own setbacks, including a February 2024 recall involving 444 vehicles, but its technology stack is considered far more robust. Waymo vehicles are outfitted with five lidar systems, six radars, and 29 cameras—compared to Tesla’s eight cameras and zero lidar or radar. Moreover, Waymo integrates multiple redundant safety systems, including:
- A secondary onboard computer
- Redundant steering motors
- A backup braking system
- Multiple positioning and GPS tools
Tesla, by contrast, lacks all of these redundancies. Safety experts argue this makes Tesla’s vehicles inherently more vulnerable to single-point failures—especially in real-world environments filled with unpredictable variables.
Even Grok, the Musk-owned AI platform used within X (formerly Twitter), has acknowledged that Tesla’s exclusion of lidar limits the vehicle’s ability to mitigate phantom braking and weakens performance in challenging visual conditions such as direct sun glare or at night.
“Musk’s approach saves costs, not lives,” an X user noted.
From Hype to Hesitation
The robotaxi rollout had been presented by Musk as a game-changing pivot in Tesla’s business. With EV margins tightening due to global competition and falling prices, the company has increasingly tried to position itself as a tech and software company. Robotaxis, Musk said, could unleash “trillions” in value by monetizing idle vehicles and creating an on-demand autonomous fleet.
Analysts believe Tesla robotaxi’s future is bullish. “We believe the Austin robotaxi launch kicks off a $1 trillion autonomous valuation alone and speaks to our $2 trillion valuation for Tesla by the end of 2026,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, and a Tesla bull.
Yet these early results from Austin suggest the reality may be more complicated. Not only are the vehicles far from error-proof, but their behavior has already drawn the attention of federal regulators. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has previously scrutinized Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD programs and may now revisit concerns in light of the new footage.
The launch also arrives at a delicate moment for Tesla, whose sales have declined in key markets such as Europe and China, while competition from better-priced EVs—including those from BYD and other Chinese firms—has intensified.
The Bigger Picture
Tesla’s robotaxi vision remains alluring. A world where cars drive themselves, earn revenue while owners sleep, and reduce accidents is a compelling narrative. But without adequate safety systems, redundancy, or regulatory clearance, that vision risks becoming a liability.
Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, and others have all acknowledged that autonomy is a slow grind that demands not just innovation, but oversight, infrastructure, and caution. Tesla, critics say, continues to push a timeline-first strategy, hoping software improvements will eventually solve what others approach through hardware-backed redundancy.
As the push for a robotaxi economy continues, Tesla’s challenge is no longer just to impress fans—it must now convince regulators, engineers, and a skeptical public that its robotaxis are not only futuristic but also fundamentally safe.