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The Praise and Abundance in AI Bubbles

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Everyone is talking about AI bubbles. But I think AI bubbles are not the real issue. In every major technological era, bubbles happen. They are not anomalies; they are features of progress.

In a seminal paper I wrote in Harvard Business Review, I tracked gross world product (GWP) across two millennia and arrived at a simple conclusion: societies move from invention to innovation eras only when property rights are established at scale. When innovators are confident they can design, own, and profit from their ideas and outcomes, they begin to take real risks.

In the 13th century, some of the wealthiest merchants in society were unwilling to fund chemists and inventors to commercialize their discoveries, not because the ideas lacked promise, but because there were limited mechanisms to protect and appropriate the value of the outcomes. Without enforceable rights, invention remained largely academic.

By the 18th century, however, systems of patents, contracts, and legal protections became standardized. And with that, the game changed. Innovation moved from curiosity to commerce. Capitalist ambition, yes, even greed, entered the system, and a contest began: who would win, and who would go home. Out of that contest, progress was born.

History is clear:

  • As Intel rose, Fairchild and Shockley Semiconductor faded.
  • As GM, Ford, and Chrysler ascended, dozens of Detroit automakers went bankrupt.
  • As Microsoft dominated, WordPerfect, Lotus, and many productivity tools disappeared.
  • As the world converged on iPhone, Samsung Galaxy, and Google Pixel, countless phone brands went under.
  • In the world of EV champions like Tesla or BYD, more than 200 EV startups have gone bankrupt.
  • In Nigeria, finance house and banking licenses were once issued like candy in 1990s, and most failed. Yet from that same cohort emerged four of today’s five leading financial institutions.

That is creative destruction at work. And that is exactly what will happen in AI. So, do not obsess over the bubble. The bigger bubble is not participating at all. If you sit out, your future is already priced at zero. If you try, you at least give yourself a chance to be among the winners. Yes, there will be an AI bubble. And yes, many will fall. But post-bubble, a new order will emerge with stronger firms, new business models, and fresh economic possibilities.

Relax and ask: what is not a bubble today? Even in America, college graduates struggle to secure decent entry-level jobs. In Nigeria, the university bubble has been around for more than a decade. Yet people do not stop going to school. Why? Because even after bubbles burst, society still advances. From the miry clay, new futures rise.

Indeed, the real question is not whether a bubble exists, but whether you will be on the positive side of what comes after, since there is abundance in bubble, and we must not blindly fear it because it is part of the game!

Forget AI Bubble, this is The Real Bubble We Ignore

As a student trying to understand the architecture of American business, I attended many of McKinsey’s advanced technical degree career sessions, starting at my first year in Johns Hopkins University. I was not looking for a job as I was very early in my studies. But those sessions became a kind of free MBA, learning from some of the sharpest minds in consulting and business.

One format I particularly enjoyed was the group case study. Students were clustered into teams and given a business problem to solve. Almost always, someone with physics or engineering background would begin by declaring a “trillion-dollar market opportunity.” And almost always, the McKinsey partners would shut that down: “The U.S. economy is not organized in trillions of dollars. It is organized in billions.”

Back then, they were right. It was a mistake to describe sectors like education, healthcare, or retail in trillions. Those markets lived in the billions. But fast forward two decades; today, a single company is worth nearly $4.5 trillion.

What changed? We moved from linear growth to exponential growth. When Elon Musk signs compensation packages tied to $8.5 trillion in Tesla valuation, he is not assuming the U.S. economy will remain at $30 trillion. Implicitly, he is betting that the economic base itself will expand, perhaps toward $100 trillion, powered by AI, robotics, and new productivity engines.

Good People, look at Bitcoin. It started at less than a cent. Today, it trades around $87,000. Call it a bubble if you like, but if you entered at $1, are you not better off?

The challenge with AI is that participation itself is becoming gated. When governments begin to underwrite massive investments, as suggested by recent OpenAI-related leaks and U.S. support mechanisms, only a few players can truly compete. China is doing the same, backing its champions. For everyone else, the barriers rise.

If these bets pay off, in a decade we may be talking about double-digit trillions of dollars in company valuations. But the distribution of opportunity will be uneven, and many communities could be left behind.

Let’s go back to history: In the 1970s, General Motors employed about one million people to generate roughly $65 billion in annual revenue. GM now uses 162,000 people to generate about $200 billion. Today, Alphabet, Google’s parent company, employs about 200,000 people to generate close to $400 billion. Did you notice the productivity vector?

Period. No one is really talking about the bubble of opportunity, on who gets access to these exponential engines, and who does not. And to me, that is the real bubble, and not what happens to AI companies!

Musk’s Fortune Explodes to $749bn After Court Restores Tesla Pay Deal, Cementing His Grip on Corporate Wealth History

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Elon Musk’s net worth has surged to an estimated $749 billion, putting him within striking distance of the $1 trillion threshold even before the separate $1 trillion pay package Tesla shareholders approved earlier this year.

The dramatic jump followed a landmark ruling by the Delaware Supreme Court on Friday, which reinstated Tesla stock options now valued at about $139 billion that had been voided by a lower court in 2024, according to Forbes’ billionaires index.

The ruling restored Musk’s 2018 CEO compensation plan, a milestone-based package that was initially valued at about $56 billion when it was granted but ballooned in value as Tesla’s share price soared. The court said rescinding the pay plan outright was an excessive remedy and unfair to Musk, effectively ending a years-long shareholder lawsuit that had cast uncertainty over one of the largest executive pay deals in corporate history.

But the significance of the decision goes far beyond the revived options themselves. It highlights just how close Musk already is to becoming the world’s first trillionaire based on existing assets alone, without factoring in the eye-watering future compensation Tesla has put on the table.

Musk’s wealth trajectory over the past decade has been unlike anything seen before. As recently as 2012, his net worth was estimated at under $10 billion, largely tied to his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. Tesla’s rise from a niche electric vehicle maker into one of the world’s most valuable companies fundamentally altered that picture. Between 2019 and 2021, as Tesla shares surged more than tenfold, Musk vaulted past Jeff Bezos to become the world’s richest person, a position he has since cemented with a widening lead.

Tesla remains the single largest contributor to Musk’s fortune. His roughly 13% stake in the company, combined with stock options from the reinstated 2018 plan, accounts for several hundred billion dollars of his net worth. Even during periods of volatility in Tesla’s share price, Musk has retained enormous paper gains, underscoring how deeply his personal wealth is leveraged to the company’s equity performance.

SpaceX has emerged as the second major engine of Musk’s financial ascent. Valued privately at about $800 billion in recent funding rounds, the rocket and satellite company has become the most valuable private aerospace firm in the world. Reports early this month that SpaceX is edging closer to an initial public offering pushed Musk’s net worth past $600 billion for the first time, even before the Delaware ruling was handed down. A public listing of SpaceX, even a partial one, could unlock tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in additional value for Musk.

Beyond Tesla and SpaceX, Musk controls or holds significant stakes in xAI, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. While these ventures are smaller in valuation today, investors increasingly view them as long-term options on artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and next-generation infrastructure. In particular, xAI has benefited from the broader AI investment frenzy, adding yet another growth lever to Musk’s already sprawling empire.

Taken together, these assets mean Musk is already approaching the $1 trillion net worth milestone on paper, even without counting the new compensation framework Tesla shareholders approved in November. That plan, described as the largest corporate pay package ever proposed, could ultimately be worth around $1 trillion if Tesla hits a series of extremely ambitious market capitalization, revenue, and operational targets over the coming years. Importantly, those targets are additive, meaning they sit on top of Musk’s existing equity and wealth rather than replacing it.

In effect, the approved package positions Musk to potentially move far beyond the trillion-dollar mark if Tesla succeeds in executing his vision of transforming the company into a dominant force in artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems. Investors who backed the plan signaled that they see Musk not merely as an automaker CEO, but as the architect of a platform company whose future value could dwarf today’s valuations.

The Delaware Supreme Court’s decision also carries broader implications for Musk’s financial future. By rejecting the rescission of a shareholder-approved pay package, the ruling strengthens Musk’s hand in defending unconventional compensation structures tied to long-term performance. It also reassures markets that the legal risks surrounding his past pay have largely been cleared, removing a major overhang from Tesla’s governance narrative.

However, critics continue to argue that Musk’s wealth concentration and influence pose risks to corporate accountability and market stability. But supporters counter that his fortune is the product of extraordinary value creation, pointing to Tesla’s transformation of the global auto industry and SpaceX’s dominance in commercial spaceflight.

What is no longer in dispute is the scale of Musk’s financial ascent. With a net worth now pushing $750 billion, multiple high-growth assets still private, and a separate $1 trillion pay framework waiting in the wings, Musk stands closer than anyone in modern history to crossing the trillionaire threshold. This milestone once seemed implausible, but now looks increasingly within reach.

CAF to Switch Africa Cup of Nations to Four-Year Cycle in Major Calendar and Revenue Overhaul

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The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) will in future be staged every four years rather than every two, a landmark shift announced on Saturday by the Confederation of African Football (CAF) that reshapes the continent’s flagship tournament, its finances, and its long-running tensions with the global football calendar.

The decision has been widely welcomed across the football world, particularly in Europe, where coaches and clubs have long complained about losing key African players in the middle of domestic seasons.

The decision, announced on Saturday by CAF president Patrice Motsepe after an executive committee meeting in Rabat, Morocco, represents a major recalibration of African football’s calendar and commercial strategy. It also brings long-awaited relief to a dispute that has simmered for decades between African national teams and European clubs.

Under the new framework, the next AFCON will still hold in 2027, co-hosted by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, followed by another edition in 2028. From then on, the tournament will be staged every four years. To avoid a long gap in competitive fixtures and revenue, CAF plans to introduce an African Nations League from 2029, to be played annually.

For European clubs, the shift addresses a recurring source of tension. AFCON has traditionally been held during the European season, often in January and February, forcing clubs to release African players at crucial points in league campaigns, cup competitions, and continental tournaments. Managers have regularly complained that the timing disrupts squad planning and competitive balance, especially for clubs heavily reliant on African talent.

This has made AFCON a frequent flashpoint between clubs and national federations. While European Championships and the World Cup are played during the off-season, African players have often had to choose between club commitments and national duty at moments when their teams needed them most.

The new four-year cycle is expected to ease those pressures. By moving away from a congested and unpredictable schedule, CAF is signaling a willingness to align more closely with the global football calendar.

Motsepe said the reform was driven in large part by concern for players caught in the middle.

“It is in the interests of the teams, clubs and players,” he said. “I can’t have players leaving their clubs in Europe in the mid-season. It’s wrong. We’ve got a duty to the players. We know how frustrating it is for the players when their club says they are needed but they are also needed for the country. It’s unfair to the players.”

Coaches in Europe have quietly welcomed the announcement, seeing it as a step toward greater stability and fairness. Over the years, several high-profile managers have voiced frustration about losing players to AFCON during decisive stretches of the season, sometimes affecting title races or relegation battles. While few clubs openly oppose the tournament, many have argued that Africa’s flagship competition should not place its players at a structural disadvantage compared with their counterparts from Europe or South America.

The timing of AFCON has been a long-standing challenge even within Africa. CAF attempted to resolve the issue by shifting the tournament to mid-year from 2019, but climate conditions and scheduling conflicts repeatedly forced reversals. The 2022 edition in Cameroon and the 2024 tournament in the Ivory Coast were both held at the start of the year, reigniting club-versus-country tensions. This year’s tournament in Morocco was itself moved back by six months after FIFA introduced an expanded Club World Cup in June and July.

Financial considerations also played a central role in the decision. AFCON accounts for an estimated 80% of CAF’s revenue, making it the confederation’s single most important commercial asset. That dependence previously made CAF resistant to proposals, including from FIFA president Gianni Infantino, to reduce the tournament’s frequency. The introduction of an African Nations League is intended to plug that revenue gap by creating a new, regular source of broadcast and sponsorship income.

“Historically the Nations Cup was the prime resource for us, but now we will get financial resources every year,” Motsepe said. “It is an exciting new structure which will contribute to sustainable financial independence and ensure more synchronization with the FIFA calendar.”

CAF has also sweetened the immediate transition with increased prize money. The winners of the ongoing tournament in Morocco will earn $10 million, up from $7 million awarded to the Ivory Coast at the last edition, signaling an effort to keep AFCON commercially attractive even as its frequency changes.

While some purists may worry that a four-year cycle could dilute the tournament’s presence, many stakeholders see the reform as overdue. It promises fewer mid-season disruptions for European clubs and coaches, while for players, it offers relief from having to navigate conflicting loyalties.

Fortis Healthcare to Buy Bengaluru’s People Tree Hospital for $48.01m, Steps Up Expansion Drive in South India

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Fortis Healthcare has agreed to acquire People Tree Hospital in Yeshwantpur, Bengaluru, for 4.3 billion rupees ($48.01 million), tightening its grip on one of India’s fastest-growing and most competitive private healthcare markets as consolidation accelerates across the sector.

The acquisition will be executed through Fortis’ wholly owned subsidiary, International Hospital, which will take over 100% of TMI Healthcare, the operating entity behind People Tree Hospital. Once completed, the transaction will give Fortis full ownership and operational control of the Bengaluru-based facility, allowing it to integrate the hospital into its existing network and clinical systems.

In addition to the purchase consideration, Fortis said it plans to invest about 4.1 billion rupees over the next three years into the hospital. The additional capital is expected to be deployed toward expanding bed capacity, upgrading medical equipment, strengthening critical care infrastructure, and introducing new clinical specialties. The company said these investments are aimed at boosting both revenue and profitability while aligning the facility with Fortis’ broader growth strategy.

The deal is seen as part of Fortis’ focus on Bengaluru and South India more broadly, regions that have emerged as key growth engines for India’s private healthcare industry. Bengaluru, in particular, has seen rising demand for tertiary and quaternary care, driven by rapid urbanization, higher health insurance penetration, a large working population, and steady inflows of medical tourists. Yeshwantpur, where People Tree Hospital is located, has become a strategic healthcare hub due to its proximity to industrial zones, residential developments, and transport links.

Fortis said the acquisition strengthens its existing operations and provides an opportunity to scale faster than a greenfield project would allow. The company can accelerate capacity utilization and shorten the path to profitability by acquiring an operational hospital with an established patient base.

Fortis, which is partly owned by Malaysia’s IHH Healthcare, currently operates 33 healthcare facilities with more than 5,700 beds across 11 Indian states, according to its website. Over the past few years, the hospital operator has increasingly favored targeted acquisitions and brownfield expansions as it seeks to deepen its presence in large metropolitan areas.

Chief executive Ashutosh Raghuvanshi told Reuters earlier that Fortis plans to invest about 7 billion rupees over the next four years to expand hospital capacity across Bengaluru, Mumbai, the National Capital Region, and Punjab. The People Tree transaction effectively advances that plan in Bengaluru, reinforcing the city’s role as a central pillar of Fortis’ expansion strategy.

The acquisition comes amid a broader wave of consolidation in India’s private healthcare sector, as large hospital chains seek scale to manage rising costs, attract specialist talent, improve bargaining power with insurers, and spread investments in advanced medical technology across larger networks. Industry executives have said that well-capitalized players are increasingly looking to acquire mid-sized hospitals in urban centers rather than build new facilities from the ground up.

The People Tree deal not only adds to its footprint in South India but also signals confidence in the sustained demand for private healthcare services in India’s major cities. With additional investments planned and a pipeline of expansion projects underway, the company is positioning itself to capture growth in a market where quality care, capacity, and scale are becoming decisive competitive advantages.

BOJ’s Recent Rate Policy is an Ongoing Normalization Away from Decades of Ultra-Loose Monetary Framework

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raise its key short-term policy interest rate yesterday by 25 basis points, from 0.5% to 0.75%. This marks the highest level for Japan’s benchmark rate in 30 years since September 1995, as part of its ongoing normalization away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.

The decision was unanimous and widely anticipated by markets. It reflects the BOJ’s increased confidence that wage growth will sustain moderate inflation around its 2% target.

Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled potential for further hikes if economic and price trends align with forecasts, though he provided limited guidance on timing or pace. The yen initially weakened, USD/JPY rose above 157 due to the lack of stronger forward guidance.

Japanese government bond yields surged, with the 10-year JGB yield exceeding 2% for the first time in over two decades. This continues the BOJ’s gradual tightening path, contrasting with rate cuts by many other major central banks.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has pursued a 2% inflation target as its core price stability objective since January 2013. This target measures the year-on-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), typically excluding fresh food for core readings.

Japan endured prolonged deflation and low inflation from the late 1990s through the early 2010s, with average inflation often negative or near zero. The BOJ formally adopted the 2% target in January 2013 under the “Abenomics” framework, alongside a joint statement with the government to overcome deflation.

To achieve this, the BOJ launched aggressive measures: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) in 2013. Negative interest rates in 2016. Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016.

An “inflation-overshooting commitment” in 2016, pledging to expand the monetary base until CPI inflation exceeded 2% and stabilized above it, a form of “makeup strategy” to compensate for past shortfalls.

These unconventional tools aimed to lift inflation expectations, which had been anchored near zero due to adaptive backward-looking behavior in Japan. Inflation has exceeded 2% for over 44 consecutive months as of November 2025, driven initially by import costs, supply shocks, and later by domestic wage growth and a positive output gap.

The BOJ assesses that sustainable 2% inflation—supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and prices—is now in sight or generally achieved. In March 2024, the BOJ ended negative rates, YCC, and QQE, judging the overshooting commitment fulfilled and returning to a conventional framework centered on short-term policy rate adjustments.

The focus remains on achieving the 2% target sustainably and stably, accompanied by moderate wage increases and anchored medium- to long-term inflation expectations. The BOJ conducts policy gradually and data-dependently, raising rates when confidence in the outlook grows.

Projections indicate core CPI may dip below 2% temporarily in early FY2026 due to fading food price pressures and government subsidies but rise thereafter as wage hikes persist and expectations firm.

Unlike strict inflation targeting in some economies, the BOJ emphasizes patience and accommodation to nurture domestic demand-driven inflation, avoiding premature tightening that could revert to deflation. Further rate hikes are signaled if economic and price trends align with forecasts, aiming toward a neutral rate estimated around 1–2.5%.

The hike signals the BOJ’s continued gradual normalization, with potential for further increases in 2026 if wage growth and inflation align with forecasts. Key trading considerations: Higher rates reflect confidence in Japan’s escape from deflation, supporting domestic demand and a “virtuous cycle” of wages/prices.

Stocks reliant on Japanese sales like financials, industrials, consumer sectors have led gains. Banks benefit from wider net interest margins as borrowing costs rise. Well-telegraphed policy removes an “uncertainty premium,” aiding bullish trends in the Nikkei.

Unlike surprise hikes in prior years, gradual tightening is unlikely to trigger sharp corrections, especially with domestic exposure dominating performance. A stronger yen expected over time which erodes competitiveness for companies like Toyota, Sony, and tech/auto firms with heavy overseas sales. However, immediate yen weakness mitigated this.

Japan has been a cheap funding source for global leveraged trades. Further hikes could unwind positions, potentially causing volatility in risk assets like U.S. tech and emerging markets if accelerated.