Euro zone inflation surged to 2.5% in March, the highest reading in more than a year, as the energy fallout from the month-old U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran abruptly reversed two years of steady disinflation and pushed the headline rate well clear of the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Preliminary figures from Eurostat on Tuesday showed the jump from 1.9% in February, driven almost entirely by energy prices that flipped from a deflationary drag of minus 3.1% to a 4.9% annual increase. Services inflation eased slightly to 3.2% from 3.4%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco slipped to 2.4% from 2.5%. The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy, held at 2.3%, suggesting the immediate pressure remains concentrated in the energy component — for now.

Iran’s near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has sent global oil and gas prices soaring. The narrow waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude and LNG. Europe, still rebuilding its energy architecture after severing most Russian pipeline supplies, is feeling the pinch more acutely than most.

U.S. liquefied natural gas, already Europe’s dominant supplier at nearly 58% of imports last year, has seen volumes triple since 2021, yet the continent is now locked in fierce bidding wars for every available cargo.

The war has hit at a particularly vulnerable moment. Economic sentiment, consumer confidence, hiring intentions, and private-sector output have all deteriorated sharply since the strikes began. Many European capitals quietly regard the conflict as an American-led war of choice rather than a collective necessity, adding a layer of political resentment to the economic strain.

ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear last week that policymakers are watching the regional data closely and will not hesitate to raise interest rates if the energy-driven surge threatens to become entrenched, even if it proves short-lived.

The bank has already torn up its earlier forecasts. It now sees headline inflation averaging 2.6% for 2026, a full 0.7 percentage point higher than December’s projection, while growth is expected to limp along at just 0.9%. The March print carries echoes of the 2022 energy crisis, when Russian supply cuts drove inflation into double digits and forced the ECB into its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. This time, the shock is narrower but arrives when the euro zone has far less fiscal and monetary room to maneuver.

Gas storage levels are lower than in recent winters, leaving less cushion against prolonged high prices. Analysts at HSBC warn European gas could run 40% above earlier expectations through 2026 and stay elevated into 2027.

Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets, called the data a stark warning for other Western economies.

“The rapid rise in euro zone inflation points towards a second wave of price pressures that are only just beginning to take hold,” he said. “Energy has switched roles from being a key driver of disinflation to the key driver of above-target inflation. For central bankers, the task ahead is to figure out whether this is something they can look beyond or a driver of higher rates to come.”

The situation has introduced an acute dilemma for the ECB. Lagarde and her colleagues have repeatedly stressed a data-dependent approach, but the bank now faces the classic stagflationary bind: rising prices alongside weakening growth and fragile confidence. A rate hike could anchor inflation expectations, but risks tipping the economy into a deeper slowdown. Doing nothing invites second-round effects — wage demands, higher transport and production costs feeding into services and goods.

Country-level details will arrive with the full release later this month, but flash estimates already show the energy hit is uneven. Germany, still heavily reliant on imported gas, is likely to see sharper pressure than France, which benefits from its large nuclear fleet. Southern and eastern members, more exposed to imported LNG and heating oil, could face the steepest household bill increases.

For households and businesses across the bloc, the numbers translate into higher fuel, heating, and freight costs at a moment when many were only beginning to recover from the post-pandemic squeeze. The broader risk is that sustained energy inflation begins to erode the real incomes that have finally started to stabilize after years of erosion.

Tuesday’s data delivers a blunt message to Frankfurt and to capitals from Lisbon to Tallinn: the disinflation journey that looked well on track has hit an abrupt and expensive detour. How long that detour lasts will depend less on monetary policy than on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and whether the Iran conflict finds any off-ramp.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that U.S. allies impacted by the U.S.-Israel vs Iran war are on their own.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he wrote on Truth Social.