Economic activities in Nigeria expanded for the second consecutive month in February 2025, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 51.4 index points, according to the latest report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Friday.

This marks a continued recovery in economic activity, signaling growth in key sectors, including industry, services, and agriculture, which recorded 50.5, 51.1, and 53.1 index points, respectively.

The expansion, driven by increased production and investment, suggests that businesses are gradually adapting to the current economic environment despite ongoing structural challenges.

A further breakdown of the 36 sub-sectors reviewed across industry, services, and agriculture showed that 21 sub-sectors recorded growth in economic activities, with the cement sector leading the expansion. On the other hand, 13 sub-sectors experienced a decline, with nonmetallic mineral products recording the highest contraction.

Meanwhile, two sub-sectors—Plastics & Rubber Products and Accommodation & Food Services—remained unchanged during the period. This uneven growth highlights how certain industries are benefiting from improved economic conditions, while others are still struggling due to high operational costs, foreign exchange volatility, and weak consumer demand.

The CBN’s Business Expectation Survey Report, also released on Friday, showed that businesses remained optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook in February 2025. The optimism is largely driven by expectations of a stronger Naira, with many businesses anticipating that the local currency will appreciate in March and over the next six months. The outlook for borrowing costs, however, remains a concern, as businesses expect an increase in lending rates that could impact expansion plans.

Businesses across all sectors expressed confidence in the economy, with the Industry sector reporting the highest level of optimism. The Mining & Quarrying and Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sectors reported the highest expansion plans for March 2025, indicating continued investment in resource-driven and utility sectors.

However, major challenges persist, dampening the ease of doing business. High interest rates remain a primary concern, along with insecurity, inadequate power supply, high taxes, financial difficulties, and excessive bank charges. These challenges have made it difficult for many companies, especially small and medium enterprises, to expand their operations or invest in new opportunities.

While businesses express confidence in economic prospects, households continue to struggle under the weight of inflation and economic hardship. The CBN’s Consumer Expectation Survey Report revealed that consumer sentiment remained negative, with a Consumer Outlook Index of -19 in February, though this marks an improvement from -23 recorded in January. The negative sentiment reflects widespread concerns over high prices of essential goods and services, which many Nigerians believe are still beyond affordable levels.

The survey indicates that households expect further increases in the cost of housing, rent, telecommunications, vehicles, and electricity over the next six months. The rising cost of living continues to erode disposable income, making it harder for families to afford basic necessities. While consumer optimism is projected to gradually improve over the next three to six months, it remains unclear whether this will translate into real economic relief for the majority of Nigerians.

The broader impact of this growth has been slow to reflect on the daily lives of Nigerians, raising skepticism among the general public about the true state of the economy. Many households continue to grapple with high inflation, and reduced purchasing power, making it difficult for them to feel the effects of reported economic improvements.

Against this backdrop, many Nigerians remain doubtful that these reports of economic expansion will bring immediate benefits. The disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and the reality faced by ordinary citizens is becoming more pronounced. Although businesses foresee a stronger economy, households have been forced to prioritize essential spending over major purchases such as houses and cars. Many are redirecting their income toward food and other essential household items, a sign that economic growth has not yet eased the financial burden on the public.

Chinese tech giant Baidu has intensified the ongoing AI battle between China and the United States with the launch of Ernie X1, a new reasoning model that it claims delivers performance on par with DeepSeek R1 at half the price. Simultaneously, Baidu unveiled Ernie 4.5, a multimodal foundation model that, according to the company, outperforms OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 in several benchmarks while costing only 1% of GPT-4.5’s pricing.

To further cement its AI ambitions, Baidu announced it would make its chatbot, Ernie Bot, free to the public starting April 1, ahead of schedule. The company also plans to integrate Ernie 4.5 and X1 into its product ecosystem, including Baidu Search, China’s dominant search engine.

But beyond the product rollout, the launch of Ernie X1 is widely seen as a strategic move in China’s escalating AI race with the US, a rivalry that is shaping the global technology industry.

For years, China and the United States have been locked in a fierce battle for AI supremacy, with both nations pouring billions into AI research, semiconductor development, and supercomputing capabilities. The release of Ernie X1 and Ernie 4.5 comes at a critical juncture when US President Donald Trump is pushing aggressive AI strategies to maintain America’s technological edge.

In January, Trump unveiled Stargate, a proposed $500 billion AI and semiconductor initiative aimed at cementing the US’ AI leadership and countering China’s rapid advancements. The program seeks to bolster AI chip manufacturing, expand research in artificial intelligence, and strengthen AI applications across military and commercial sectors.

The past Biden administration implemented sweeping restrictions on AI chip exports to China, limiting the country’s access to Nvidia’s high-performance chips—a key component in training large AI models. However, Chinese firms like Baidu, Alibaba, Huawei, and Tencent have ramped up their domestic chip production efforts and are investing heavily in AI models that can rival OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic.

The Cost War in AI Models: OpenAI vs. DeepSeek vs. Baidu

Baidu’s aggressive pricing strategy with Ernie 4.5 and Ernie X1 underpins a key battleground in the AI war: cost efficiency. AI models require significant computational power, and the cost of running these models has been a major bottleneck in global AI adoption.

DeepSeek, a Chinese startup backed by hedge fund High Flyer, disrupted the market in late 2024 with its DeepSeek V3 large language model, followed by DeepSeek R1, a reasoning model introduced in January 2025. According to Bernstein Research, DeepSeek’s models are 20 to 40 times cheaper than equivalent OpenAI models, making them highly attractive to businesses and developers.

Baidu’s Ernie 4.5 follows this trend, with pricing that significantly undercuts OpenAI’s GPT-4.5. Input token prices start as low as RMB 0.004 per thousand tokens, with output tokens priced at RMB 0.016 per thousand tokens. Converted into USD, Baidu’s claims check out, but DeepSeek’s V3 remains the most cost-efficient model in the category.

However, Baidu’s Ernie X1 reasoning model emerges as the cheapest of all, costing just 2% of OpenAI’s o1 model.

Beyond pricing, early user feedback suggests strong performance. Venture partner Alvin Foo of Zero2Launch noted on X, “Been playing around with it for hours, impressive performance.”

China’s AI Strategy: The Open-Source Revolution

Baidu’s AI ambitions align with China’s broader AI strategy, which prioritizes open-source development, self-sufficiency in AI chips, and government-backed funding for AI research.

The success of DeepSeek has demonstrated the power of open-source AI, where making models publicly available significantly boosts adoption. Baidu’s CEO Robin Li acknowledged this shift in a February earnings call.

“One thing we learned from DeepSeek is that open-sourcing the best models can greatly help adoption. When the model is open source, people naturally want to try it out of curiosity, which helps drive broader adoption,” he said.

China has been making rapid AI advancements as it aims to become the world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. Over the past few weeks, the country has unveiled multiple AI breakthroughs, including Manus, an AI agent, and Alibaba’s open-source model QwQ-32B.

Until now, AI insiders had been eagerly awaiting DeepSeek’s R2 launch, expecting it to set a new benchmark in AI reasoning models. But with Baidu’s Ernie collection now in the mix, the race has taken a dramatic turn.