Africa’s largest petroleum refinery, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, is set to reach full operational capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days, according to the refinery’s Head, Edwin Devakumar.
Speaking to Reuters on Monday, Devakumar revealed that the refinery, located in Lagos, Nigeria, has ramped up its production and is currently operating at 85% capacity, translating to 552,500 bpd.
The $19 billion refinery, built by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, was designed to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products and position the country as a refining hub. Since it began operations in January 2024, the facility has been refining diesel, naphtha, jet fuel, and petrol. While the refinery started processing petrol in September 2024, its ability to sustain full operations has been challenged by crude supply shortages and low patronage from Nigerian fuel marketers, whom Dangote has openly criticized for undermining the refinery’s success.
One of the biggest obstacles to Dangote’s refining ambitions has been the inability to secure a steady supply of Nigerian crude oil. Despite an agreement with the government to purchase crude in naira, the refinery was forced to import crude oil last year after struggling to obtain enough domestic supply.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recently confirmed that Dangote Refinery had requested 550,000 bpd of crude for the first half of 2025 from local oil producers. To ensure compliance, NNPCL has warned that it will block export permits for oil producers that fail to meet their required supply quotas to domestic refineries.
This struggle reflects Nigeria’s longstanding dilemma—while the country is a major oil producer, over 90% of its crude is historically exported, with domestic refineries left struggling for feedstock. For Dangote Refinery to operate at full capacity, it must secure a consistent supply of high-quality Nigerian crude, rather than being forced to rely on expensive imports.
The Refinery’s Challenge of Finding Buyers
Beyond securing crude, the biggest challenge Dangote Refinery will face when it reaches full capacity is finding willing buyers. Although it has a large capacity to satisfy domestic demand, many Nigerian oil marketers have been reluctant to purchase petroleum products from the refinery.
Last year, Aliko Dangote openly decried low patronage, lamenting that Nigerian fuel marketers led by NNPCL, were deliberately snubbing his refinery in favor of imports. He has actively appealed to Nigerian oil marketers to buy directly from his facility, urging them to take advantage of its large refining capacity to alleviate fuel scarcity and meet local demand instead of relying on imported fuel.
The reluctance of Nigerian marketers to source from Dangote Refinery has raised suspicions of sabotage. In a controversial statement, Dangote accused oil marketers—led by NNPCL—of importing cheap, adulterated fuel from Malta, suggesting that these imports were part of an attempt to undermine his refinery. His claim pointed to a larger issue: the established fuel importation cartel, which has historically benefited from fuel subsidies and import licenses, is resistant to shifting its business model towards local refining.
The lack of patronage poses a serious risk to Dangote’s ability to recoup his investment. If local marketers continue to prefer imports over locally refined products, the refinery might be forced to look for buyers overseas.
Energy experts note that this scenario contradicts the refinery’s original import-substitution goal and could delay Nigeria’s transition to fuel self-sufficiency.
Dangote Refinery is already exploring international markets. As part of its expansion strategy, it has begun exporting petroleum products, including two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.
According to Devakumar, the refinery is actively exploring all available markets to expand its reach. Once at full capacity, Dangote Refinery is expected to compete with European refiners, especially in West Africa and the global jet fuel market.
Although fuel importation is allowed following the deregulation of the downstream sector, analysts note that relying on exports instead of domestic sales could weaken the refinery’s core objective—to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel and stabilize local prices.
To counteract these challenges, Dangote has urged the Nigerian government to enforce policies that support local refining. In November 2024, he called for greater collaboration between the government and local refineries to ensure Nigeria’s daily petrol demand of 32 million liters is met locally.
His push for policy support comes amid concerns that NNPCL’s dual role as both a regulator and competitor creates a conflict of interest. As the sole importer of fuel for Nigeria, NNPCL controls the market and can influence supply decisions—a situation that Dangote believes is hindering his refinery’s growth.
Against this backdrop, the refinery’s biggest battle is no longer just securing crude oil—but ensuring that Nigerian oil marketers buy its products.
