By 2028, the market valuations of Western Union, and whatever is left of MoneyGram, in any form, will be half of what they are today. Also, remittance companies doing business in/into Africa which do not prioritize the use of stablecoin will see massive erosion of value. I expect most African economies to enable comparable local stablecoins which will get integrated into global exchanges, and exchangeable with local fiat, and once that happens, remittance 3.0 will begin.

Remittance business has been built on two core costs: transaction and distribution costs. The originating transaction cost has since dropped from $36 per every $200, to now $5 per every $200. Some ecosystems have even removed transaction costs focusing on currency arbitrage which goes well below 2%. 

But that 2% will go by 2027 as local stablecoins evolve to sync with current global ones like USDT, USDC and BUSD.  When that happens, your typical remittance companies will fade as most will be disintermediated. The distribution cost is a non-factor these days since you can pay from anywhere into local bank accounts, distorting the old fees paid to gatekeepers in the banking sector.

The future posits an era where frictions will disappear in remittance, and the winners of this sector in Africa will be pioneers of stablecoins. If you are looking for a startup idea, I just shared one.  Of course you need to have liquidity and reserves to ensure your stablecoin is in sync with fiat all the time, and that means, you need big pockets to execute this.

Nigeria Naira’s Stablecoin and Urgency for Global Integration with Fintech and Remittance Firms

TikTok has announced its readiness to shut down for U.S. users on January 19, but there may be a last-minute reprieve for the embattled app. A Biden administration official told ABC News that it does not plan to enforce the law that would require TikTok to cease operations one day before President Joe Biden leaves office.

TikTok could still choose to shut down voluntarily on Sunday, a move aimed at highlighting the potentially wide-ranging impact of the ban on its 170 million U.S. monthly users. However, Biden’s team is signaling that the issue will likely be passed on to the incoming Trump administration to address.

“Our position on this has been clear: TikTok should continue to operate under American ownership. Given the timing of when [the ban] goes into effect over a holiday weekend a day before inauguration, it will be up to the next administration to implement,” a White House official said in a statement.

The law does not explicitly mandate TikTok to go dark on January 19. Instead, app stores and internet hosting services providing support to TikTok could face fines of up to $5,000 per user. With the app’s massive user base, this could amount to billions of dollars in liability for companies like Apple, Google, and Oracle.

So far, these tech giants have either declined to comment or remained silent on how they plan to handle the looming deadline.

Even if the president-elect or outgoing president wanted to delay the ban, their options are limited. The law allows for a one-time, 90-day extension under stringent conditions: TikTok must demonstrate it is on a clear path toward divesting from ByteDance, there must be evidence of significant progress, and legally binding agreements must seal that progress. There is no indication that these conditions have been met.

Congress Divided Over Extension

Efforts to delay the ban through legislative action have stalled. A group of Senate Democrats introduced a bill this week to give TikTok’s parent company ByteDance an additional 270 days to divest, but it was blocked by Republican Senator Tom Cotton, who cited national security concerns.

“It’s clear that more time is needed,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor. He emphasized the need for a solution that protects TikTok’s users and safeguards against potential Chinese surveillance. Schumer also revealed that he had directly appealed to Biden to grant an extension.

Despite bipartisan calls for a delay, the path forward remains murky. Cotton’s opposition underscores a growing divide between lawmakers, with some prioritizing national security over the app’s cultural and economic impact.

Reprieve From Trump’s Soft Stance?

As the deadline approaches, President-elect Donald Trump has softened his position on TikTok, raising the possibility of a reprieve. Once a staunch advocate of banning the app during his first term, Trump has shifted his tone, crediting TikTok for helping him connect with younger voters during the 2024 presidential campaign.

In a December news conference, Trump acknowledged having a “warm spot” for TikTok and hinted at a negotiated resolution to keep the app operational. He even met with TikTok CEO Shou Chew at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last month to explore potential solutions.

Florida Representative Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, revealed in a Fox News interview that the president-elect is considering options to preserve the app while addressing security concerns. These options reportedly include an executive order to delay enforcement of the ban, allowing time for negotiations with ByteDance.

“President Trump has been very clear: Number one, TikTok is a great platform that many Americans use and has been great for his campaign and getting his message out. But number two, he’s going to protect their data,” Waltz said.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court appears poised to uphold the law that targets TikTok. During oral arguments last week, justices expressed concerns over national security threats posed by ByteDance’s alleged ties to the Chinese government.

Chief Justice John Roberts questioned TikTok’s legal team, asking, “Are we supposed to ignore the fact that the ultimate parent of TikTok is doing intelligence work?” While some justices raised concerns about free speech, the potential risks of the app seemed to take precedence.

If Biden chooses to defer enforcement of the ban, TikTok’s fate will rest in Trump’s hands. Given Trump’s recent softened stance and efforts to explore options for preserving the app, there is a chance the incoming administration could seek a solution to keep TikTok operational.

On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had a “very good” phone call with China’s President Xi Jinping, which included discussion of TikTok. In addition, the president-elect said that he would make a decision on TikTok in the “not too distant” future, but did not say what he would do.

“We discussed balancing trade, fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects,” Trump wrote on his social platform. “President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe!”