The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised a fresh alarm over Nigeria’s persistently high inflation and widening poverty, urging the Federal Government to double down on its reform efforts to stabilize the economy and unlock long-term growth.
In a country-focused article titled “How Nigeria Can Unleash Its Economic Potential” released Monday, the global lender acknowledged the steps taken by President Bola Tinubu’s administration but stressed that inflation, still above 20%, and widespread food insecurity remain major threats to Nigeria’s recovery.
“The country needs stronger and more sustained growth to lift millions of people out of poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF said. It noted that efforts to improve the economy must include a comprehensive overhaul of the fiscal framework, improved infrastructure, and transparent implementation of the budget to enhance public trust.
The Bretton Wood Institute was notably in support of Tinubu’s reforms, marking a shift in its view of the government policies.
The Fund advised that the savings from the fuel subsidy removal should be efficiently channeled into “priority spending,” especially in sectors that improve people’s welfare and drive long-term growth. It added that once cash transfer systems are operational and the cost-of-living crisis eases, tax rates could be adjusted to align with regional averages.
“Monetary policy should continue to decisively tackle inflation and reduce economic uncertainty,” it stated, while also highlighting poor electricity infrastructure and the lack of a strong social safety net as key roadblocks.
The IMF said Nigeria’s enormous funding needs in sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and climate adaptation required a stronger domestic revenue base and a more effective tax structure.
Nigeria Fires Back
The presidency swiftly rejected the IMF’s assessment, accusing the Washington-based institution of issuing unreasonably harsh and destabilizing statements that ignore Nigeria’s recent progress and structural challenges.
Speaking on Tuesday on Channels Television’s “The Morning Brief,” President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Economic Affairs, Tope Fasua, said the IMF’s tone amounted to “heckling” and failed to appreciate the scale of reforms already underway.
“This administration under President Tinubu has done some of the deepest reforms we have seen in a while,” Fasua said. “We haven’t even allowed those measures to settle, yet we’re hearing all sorts of fatalistic statements.”
He cited the recent passage of tax reform bills, which include provisions that ease burdens on small businesses and low-income earners, as evidence of the administration’s commitment to inclusive development.
Fasua said the IMF’s criticisms, often delivered at a rapid frequency, risked confusing the public and undermining confidence in the reform process.
“Almost every two to three days, there’s a statement on Nigeria. At the end of the day, it leaves everyone in a state of confusion,” he said.
The presidency also reminded the IMF that Nigeria had fully repaid its $3 billion COVID-19-era debt to the Fund, something many other countries have yet to do.
“We’re not asking for a pat on the back,” Fasua added, “We’re just saying, give us a breather. Let us be able to implement the policies we’ve started.”
On inflation, Fasua acknowledged that it remained high but said it was already on a downward trend, noting that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had successfully begun stabilizing interest rates after months of tightening.
“They [IMF] expect inflation to drop to single digits in a quarter? That’s unrealistic,” he said. “Inflation has reduced over the last three months and will likely fall further.”
He also challenged the logic of the IMF’s advisory-lending duality, implying the institution often issues conflicting guidance.
“The IMF has both an advisory and a lending arm, and sometimes it looks like their advice clashes with their lending stance,” he said. “We’ve done the right things. They say they want more — but the government also has a right to say, ‘Let us see how what we’ve done turns out.’”
Fasua warned that the IMF’s constant pressure could erode public support for reforms and deepen frustration among Nigerians already grappling with inflation and high living costs.
“Give us a break,” he urged, “It’s like a house that is completely dilapidated. And we’re being asked to provide full comfort in two years after removing the roof and working on the foundation. That’s not realistic.”
The sharp pushback reflects growing fatigue in Abuja over what many officials see as external prescriptions that lack local context. However, a large section of Nigerians agree with the IMF, with many arguing that the elapsed time is sufficient for the reforms to begin to yield positive results.