Time to review those predictions on recent policies:

1. Nigeria floats its currency.

My response: “Nigeria’s floating of its currency, while progressive, will cause severe perturbations in the economy – and a stable state may not come as most experts have predicted” – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, June 2023.

Remark: my postulation remains correct as that policy continues to alter the equilibrium points on many things, at family, state and national levels. Net welfare status is LOSS for most citizens.

2. JP Morgan projects that Naira will settle at N600/$ post-float.

My response: ‘“My perspective: I think JP Morgan may need to review. Whether you float, swim or fly Naira, Naira can only survive if the economy is productive with capacity to produce things (digital, physical, service, etc) to reposition the nation’s balance of payment and trade.”’ – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, June 2023, in a piece titled “Why JP Morgan’s Call on High N600s per US$ Stable State for Naira May Not Happen”.

Remark: Against all the leading global banks and our central bank which projected a stable state of around N700/$1, I am correct since the Naira is about N1,500/$ now.

3. Removal of Fuel Subsidy

My Response: “Nigeria will either pause the full floating of its currency or return back to fuel subsidy” because running both at the same will impoverish millions of citizens – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, July 2023.

Remark: even though the official unemployment rate (5.3%) is better than the rates in Germany and Canada, the government agency also noted that more citizens have moved into poverty, making their analysis illogical.

What was your prediction and how is that playing with reality so far? We have enough data now to evaluate.

It all depends on what you understand as the meaning of “progressive”. Progressive is not a synonym of “positive”. In my context, it is simply gradually moving step by step which every government in Nigeria has been hoping to do. But even as I understand that it is…

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) September 29, 2024

Nigeria’s money supply (M2) hit a historic peak of N107.1 trillion in August 2024, reflecting a 0.75% month-on-month rise from July’s figure of N106.3 trillion and a more substantial 5.6% increase from N101.4 trillion in June.

The surge, reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has heightened concerns about liquidity and inflation management, as policymakers grapple with maintaining a delicate balance between fostering economic growth and controlling price hikes.

This jump represents a staggering 65% year-on-year increase, with M2 climbing from N64.8 trillion in August 2023. The surge is primarily driven by quasi-money (savings, term deposits) and demand deposits, which have seen significant rises of 77% and 43%, respectively. Both components are influenced by the devaluation of the naira against foreign currencies, underscoring the deep impact of Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange market on domestic money supply.

Components Driving the Surge

The money supply encompasses currency in circulation, demand deposits, and quasi-money, all of which signal the growing liquidity in Nigeria’s financial system. By August 2024, currency outside banks reached N3.8 trillion, demand deposits hit N31 trillion, and quasi-money ballooned to N72.2 trillion, all of which are symptomatic of the country’s mounting liquidity despite the CBN’s efforts to tighten monetary policy.

A significant driver behind this expansion has been the rise in forex-related components within quasi-money and demand deposits, particularly as individuals and corporations have sought to hedge against the naira’s devaluation by holding foreign currencies.

Defying Tighter Monetary Policy

In its September 2024 meeting, the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Olayemi Cardoso, raised alarm over the unchecked rise in money supply and its potential to stoke inflation. In response, the MPC made a significant move to curb excess liquidity, voting to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 27.25%. This marked a continuation of the CBN’s tightening stance, aimed at containing inflationary pressures.

The committee also adjusted the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks, raising it by 500 basis points to 50%, while the CRR for Merchant Banks was increased by 200 basis points to 16%. These measures are intended to limit the liquidity available for lending, in a bid to cool off demand-side pressures in the economy.

In addition, the MPC acknowledged the government’s fiscal deficit but praised its commitment to avoiding monetary financing through the Ways and Means channel, which could inject further liquidity into the economy and worsen inflation.

Despite the central bank’s efforts, inflationary pressures have continued to threaten economic growth. Headline inflation eased slightly to 32.15% in August, thanks to a moderation in food prices. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remains stubbornly high, driven largely by surging energy costs. This persistent inflation has created a dilemma for the CBN, as it seeks to balance inflation control with the need to support economic recovery.

The MPC made a fresh decision to hike rates to curtail the pace of inflation. However, the rising money supply complicates these efforts, as higher liquidity can spur demand in an economy where production remains constrained. Economists note that if the supply of goods and services does not keep pace with rising demand, prices could continue to climb, undermining the CBN’s efforts to stabilize inflation.

Implications of Rising Money Supply

The growing money supply has mixed implications for Nigeria’s economy. On one hand, increased liquidity can provide a short-term boost by making credit more accessible to businesses. This, in turn, can drive investment, job creation, and production, contributing to economic growth. On the other hand, excessive money supply growth, without a corresponding rise in productivity, risks fueling inflation, particularly in an economy already grappling with price instability.

Economic analysts have raised concerns about the risks posed by the rapid increase in money supply. According to financial analyst Kalu Aja, “The issue is not the N107 trillion; the problem is that nothing is being produced with that N107 trillion.”

He explained that wealthier individuals and businesses are converting naira earnings into foreign currency, while those less well-off are forced to buy increasingly expensive goods with a depreciating currency.

Aja’s analysis underlines a broader concern about Nigeria’s economic structure. “The solution,” he argued, “is to make manufacturing great again in Nigeria, reduce the cost of local production, and improve local productivity.”

If local production can be increased, Aja suggests, it could absorb the excess liquidity in the system and help stabilize prices.

It is believed that efforts to tackle rising inflation have failed because Nigeria’s policymakers face the challenge of managing an ever-growing money supply in a high-inflation environment. Experts have noted that while monetary tightening measures like interest rate hikes and increased CRR can help absorb some of the excess liquidity, these policies alone may not be enough to address the underlying structural issues in the economy.

In addition to boosting local production, economists have emphasized the need for significant reforms, including addressing infrastructure deficits, reducing the cost of doing business, and improving the overall investment climate. Without these reforms they said, the risk remains that the rising money supply will continue to outstrip production, leading to further inflationary pressures.

The church has historically held a unique position in African society, often serving as a trusted community that people remain dedicated to throughout their lives. For many, the church is a source of guidance, community, and spiritual support. Religion influences numerous aspects of daily life, particularly in Africa, where belonging to a Christian congregation is often seen as a moral and social expectation.

However, as African societies have evolved, questions have arisen about how effectively the church has adapted to the needs of modern communities, especially in terms of societal development, communal unity, and practical assistance. In this article, I explore how the church can better support the growth and development of our communities, drawing parallels to pre-colonial African religious systems and suggesting actionable steps for modern religious institutions.

The Role of Traditional African Religions in Community Growth

Before the advent of organized Christianity in Africa, traditional African religions played a critical role in shaping community structures. Religious practices were typically family-centered, with fathers leading daily rituals and offering blessings for their children. At the community level, priests acted as mediators, handling spiritual matters as well as resolving health and communal issues.

The traditional religious system emphasized sustainability, resource management, and communal prosperity. For example:

Family-led Spirituality: Fathers were responsible for guiding their families, instilling values such as hard work, respect for nature, and dedication to family trades.

Cultural Preservation: Religious practices, such as calculating menstrual cycles and understanding fertility, were passed down through generations, ensuring that family planning and health were well-regulated.

Sustainability: Communities thrived on farming, trade, and collective prosperity. Priests encouraged young people to improve agricultural techniques, explore new markets, and pass down these skills.

The traditional system’s greatest strength was its focus on practical, everyday needs, tying religion to sustainability and community welfare. It was not a business venture, and religious leaders didn’t require specialized degrees to guide their communities.

The Church and the Loss of Communal Bonding

When Christianity became widespread in Africa, it introduced a different system of religious organization. The church emphasized centralization, with ministers trained in theology and often unfamiliar with the communities they served. Unlike the traditional priests, many ministers lacked practical knowledge of farming, trade, or other skills that sustained the livelihoods of African communities. This shift had several impacts:

Erosion of Family Bonds: The church emphasized loyalty to the religious community over familial relationships. For example, people were discouraged from maintaining ties with family members who belonged to different congregations. This created divisions within families and communities.

Monetization of Religion: Tithes and offerings became central to the church’s financial structure, placing a heavy emphasis on monetary contributions. This replaced the family-centered, resource-sharing systems that existed in traditional religions.

Loss of Cultural Practices: As churches discouraged traditional African spiritual practices, many cultural and sustainable practices were lost. Farming, once a staple of community life, declined, and families no longer passed down crucial agricultural skills.

How the Church Can Do More for Community Development

The church remains a trusted institution in African society, and with its influence, it has the potential to play a pivotal role in community development. Here are some ways the church can better support societal growth:

1. Promote Agricultural Development: The church should encourage families and communities to engage in small-scale farming, reviving traditional agricultural practices that sustained African communities for generations. Churches could:

   – Organize farming cooperatives.

   – Teach modern and traditional farming techniques.

   – Encourage the cultivation of crops that are vital to local economies, such as yams, cassava, and palm oil.

2. Foster Family Unity: Instead of creating divisions based on religious differences, the church should emphasize the importance of family. Churches can organize family-oriented programs that:

   – Encourage weekly or monthly family meetings, either in person or online, where members can share experiences, advice, and prayers.

   – Set up family savings accounts where a portion of earnings goes toward supporting lower-income family members, fostering financial stability and unity.

   – Hold seminars on family trades, helping families pass down skills such as carpentry, farming, or craftsmanship from one generation to the next.

3. Encourage Community-Based Economic Projects: The church should support community-driven initiatives that promote economic growth. This can be done by:

   – Organizing community forums that bring together entrepreneurs, farmers, and business leaders to share ideas and collaborate on projects.

   – Encouraging members to invest in local businesses and create job opportunities within their communities.

   – Offering microfinance options to help community members start or grow small businesses.

4. Revive Traditional Skills and Knowledge: The church can play a role in preserving cultural heritage by:

   – Organizing workshops that teach traditional skills such as basket weaving, pottery, and farming.

   – Encouraging the use of indigenous crops and sustainable farming practices that are suited to local environments.

   – Promoting traditional family planning methods and health practices that align with cultural values.

5. Address Social Issues: The church should take a more active role in addressing social issues that affect communities, such as poverty, unemployment, and health challenges. Some initiatives could include:

   – Offering vocational training programs that equip young people with the skills they need to find employment or start their own businesses.

   – Setting up community health programs that provide basic medical care and education on issues such as nutrition, sanitation, and maternal health.

   – Working with local governments to advocate for policies that support community development, such as infrastructure improvements, access to clean water, and affordable healthcare.

Why Family-Centered Communities Work Better

One of the key lessons from traditional African religions is the importance of family-centered communities. In these systems, families met regularly, shared resources, and passed down knowledge from one generation to the next. This ensured that everyone had a role to play in the community and that no one was left behind.

If the church were to adopt a more family-centered approach, it could help rebuild some of the communal bonds that have been lost over time. For example:

– Regular Family Gatherings: Families should be encouraged to meet regularly, both in person and online, to discuss important issues, offer support, and celebrate achievements.

– Family Savings Plans: By pooling resources, families can create financial safety nets that support members during difficult times, such as illness or unemployment.

– Intergenerational Knowledge Sharing: Older family members should be encouraged to pass down valuable skills and knowledge to younger generations, ensuring that important traditions and practices are not lost.

The Power of Family Bonds

Trust me, there are people in my family that I haven’t spoken to in over a decade. Believe it or not, some of the greatest lessons come from those who can speak to you openly, like university lecturers. They have nothing to worry about as they teach and correct you in class. We spend only four or five years in university but come out with skills that can sustain us for a lifetime.

Yet, we spend years in churches, and some people never get the chance to do anything impactful because the teachings are often repetitive.

Now, imagine a family group where all your relatives meet once a week, either online or in person. Picture heartfelt talks from brothers and sisters, advice from parents who are treasure troves of wisdom about what works at the family level.

Our fathers would speak to us openly, bring out the best in us, say prayers, share life experiences, and keep us connected with our bloodline.

There wouldn’t be a bond as strong as this. Imagine contributing a percentage of your income to a family account where low-income relatives can benefit, emergencies can be handled, and family ties remain stronger than ever.

This could extend to the community, where children from the same area unite, learn from each other, and bring synergy from their shared heritage to enrich family growth.

The Church and Modern Society

As African societies become more urbanized and globalized, the church faces new challenges in supporting community development. However, by adopting some of the principles of traditional African religions—such as family unity, sustainability, and practical support—the church can play a crucial role in helping communities thrive in the modern world.

The church should:

– Embrace Technology: Use digital platforms to connect families, especially those separated by distance. Online family meetings, workshops, and prayer sessions can help maintain strong bonds even in urban settings.

– Promote Self-Sufficiency: Teach community members how to become self-sufficient through skills training, entrepreneurship, and sustainable living practices.

– Encourage Civic Engagement: The church should encourage its members to get involved in local governance, helping shape policies that benefit the community.

Conclusion

While the church has been a significant force in African society for generations, it must evolve to meet the changing needs of modern communities. By promoting family unity, supporting sustainable agricultural practices, and addressing social issues, the church can become a powerful agent of growth and development. Ultimately, the church should strive to be more than just a spiritual guide—it should be a partner in building stronger, more resilient communities.

The purpose behind the introduction of Christianity to Africa remains a mystery to me, especially given how it has divided our families along religious lines. Instead of dwelling on this, let’s shift our focus to family unification and rekindle the bonds that once held us together.

We need to come together again, celebrate our special seasons, and truly be our brothers’ keepers. Let’s put aside religious differences and embrace humanism as the core of our daily lives.

The church, unless it changes its approach, hasn’t been the best gift we’ve received from the West. It’s time we prioritize our family connections and community spirit, fostering unity and support for one another. Let’s make family the cornerstone of our lives once more, creating a future where we thrive together.