In a move that has taken the Nigerian financial sector by storm, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) reported a staggering pre-tax profit of N494.5 billion in its audited second-quarter financial statements for 2024.

This marks a near-doubling of its pre-tax profits compared to the same period last year, making it the most significant second-quarter result ever achieved by any Nigerian bank or financial holding company.

The second quarter’s success comes on the heels of an equally explosive first quarter, where the bank reported a pre-tax profit of N509.3 billion. This back-to-back performance has propelled GTCO to an unprecedented total of N1 trillion in profits for the first half of 2024, setting a new standard in the banking industry and reinforcing its position as a financial powerhouse.

Key Financial Highlights – Q2 2024

• Interest Income: N336.2 billion, a massive +176% increase.
• Net Interest Income: N264.2 billion, up +177%.
• Loan Impairments: N33.9 billion, down -79%.
• Net Commission and Fees: N48.8 billion, a jump of +126%.
• Other Income: N305.2 billion, a -15% dip.
• Total Operating Expenses: N102.7 billion, up by +48%.
• Pre-tax Profit: N494.4 billion, an impressive +95%.
• Loans & Advances: N3.1 trillion, a +34% increase.
• Total Deposits: N10.2 trillion, up +62%.
• Net Assets: N2.3 trillion, nearly doubling with a +96% growth.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): N16.

The Drivers of The Growth

At the core of GTCO’s phenomenal second-quarter performance is the bank’s outstanding growth in net interest income, which surged by 177% to N264.2 billion. Notably, this is the highest net interest income ever recorded by the bank in a single quarter, and it’s a clear reflection of the robust performance of its risk assets.

To illustrate this monumental achievement, GTCO’s total net interest income for the entirety of 2022 was N259.3 billion. In just the first half of 2024, the bank has already surpassed that figure, generating N491.5 billion in net interest income. This growth has been largely fueled by loans to customers, with the bank earning N361.9 billion from its Nigerian operations and another N255.9 billion from its international branches.

Despite global economic headwinds, Nigeria contributed a hefty N843.1 billion to GTCO’s pre-tax profits, further underscoring the bank’s strong presence and dominance in its home market.

Unrealized Gains

A deep dive into GTCO’s income statement reveals that a significant chunk of the bank’s profits—over N520 billion—is tied to unrealized gains. Specifically, the bank reported N493 billion in unrealized fair value gains on financial instruments and N130.2 billion in unrealized gains from forward transactions, both of which are related to forex revaluation. This suggests that while GTCO’s results are undeniably impressive, a substantial portion of its income is yet to be fully realized, raising questions about the sustainability of these figures in future quarters.

Fee-Based Income and Commissions

GTCO’s foray into e-business has proven lucrative, with the bank earning N32.5 billion from its e-business services and N16.3 billion from commissions on foreign exchange deals. Additionally, account maintenance charges brought in another N15.6 billion. In total, the bank recorded gross commission and fees of N113.9 billion for the first half of 2024.

Corporate Banking and Retail Banking Contributions

The bank’s Corporate Banking Group continues to be its cornerstone, contributing a staggering N521 billion to pre-tax profits. However, the bank’s retail division has also been a formidable player, generating N298.6 billion in pre-tax profits, a notable increase from N63.2 billion in the first half of 2023.

To reward its shareholders, GTCO declared an interim dividend of N1 per share, double the 50 kobo per share paid out during the same period in 2023. This bold move not only showcases the bank’s financial strength but also reinforces its commitment to delivering value to its investors.

The Stock Market Reaction

Interestingly, despite the groundbreaking financial results, GTCO’s share price took a minor hit, closing at N45.45 per share, down by 0.11%. This may indicate that the market is cautiously optimistic, possibly due to concerns about the unrealized gains in the bank’s financial statements or the broader economic challenges facing the country.

To put GTCO’s performance into perspective, the bank’s total deposits now stand at N10.2 trillion, representing a 62% increase from the previous year. This level of deposit growth signals increased customer confidence in the bank’s operations and a robust liquidity position that sets the stage for even greater profitability in the coming quarters.

While GTCO’s stellar performance is undoubtedly a triumph, there are still challenges on the horizon. Analysts believe the heavy reliance on unrealized gains in GTCO’s income statement suggests that the bank’s long-term profitability could face pressures if these gains fail to materialize.

The Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar V.G. Edwin, has voiced his frustration over a boycott of Dangote Refinery’s products by local petroleum marketers, despite the refinery’s capacity to supply affordable petroleum products.

Speaking during a Twitter space hosted by Nairametrics on Wednesday, Edwin revealed that despite the refinery’s efforts to provide cheaper products, local traders continue to favor importing refined products from abroad rather than supporting local refining.

Edwin explained that the core vision behind the Dangote Refinery was to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude oil for the local market. However, this goal has been hampered by the reluctance of local marketers to engage with the refinery.

According to him, only about 3% of the refinery’s output is currently sold locally, while the remaining 97%, including diesel and jet fuel, is exported.

“The whole purpose of doing this refinery in Nigeria was to utilize our local crude instead of exporting raw materials and importing finished products,” Edwin stated. “We should be able to refine and use the finished products within Nigeria and produce more to export the surplus.”

Edwin indicated that there may be deliberate attempts by some local marketers to block the Dangote Refinery’s products even though the refinery has reduced prices twice to encourage sales. He noted that marketers continue to resist, even going as far as writing to President Bola Tinubu to complain about the refinery’s pricing strategy, accusing Dangote of undercutting the market.

“They wrote to His Excellency, the president, claiming that we are disturbing the market by dropping our prices,” Edwin said. “We reduced prices to meet market dynamics, but instead of cooperation, they pushed back.”

This resistance has forced the Dangote Refinery to export most of its production, a significant deviation from the refinery’s original goal of supplying the domestic market. Edwin highlighted that the refinery, with a production capacity of up to 54 million liters of refined petroleum products per day, could easily meet Nigeria’s demand, yet local marketers remain hesitant to engage.

Dependence on Imported Crude Oil

One of the other challenges faced by the refinery is inconsistent crude oil supply from local sources. This has forced Dangote Refinery to import crude from countries like the U.S. and Brazil. International oil companies (IOCs), which typically prioritize foreign markets, often sell crude oil at higher prices to local buyers.

Aliko Dangote, Chairman of Dangote Industries, previously announced that the refinery’s operations had already led to a 60% reduction in the local price of diesel. Prior to the refinery’s commencement, diesel sold for approximately N1,700 per liter, but the refinery was able to lower this to around N1,000. Despite the significant depreciation of the Naira, with exchange rates soaring to about N1,500 per dollar, Dangote Refinery has kept diesel prices below N1,200.

Edwin explained that 44% of the refinery’s production capacity could supply 100% of Nigeria’s demand for refined products. Yet the lack of consistent local crude supply, coupled with local marketers’ reluctance to patronize the refinery, means the refinery has had to look internationally for both crude inputs and product exports.

NNPC Wants A Direct Role

Amid these challenges, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has requested a more direct involvement in Dangote Refinery’s operations. According to Edwin, NNPC has asked to permanently station a team of six to ten people at the refinery to oversee crude supply and production processes. The arrangement is part of a crude supply agreement where Dangote Refinery would purchase crude oil from the NNPC in Naira, process it, and sell the refined products back in Naira.

Edwin noted that discussions with the NNPC are still ongoing, with key issues such as crude pricing and the exchange rate for the Naira yet to be finalized. The potential shift from transacting in dollars to conducting business in Naira marks a significant departure from the refinery’s original model, which was designed as a free zone company.

“We are still in talks with the government about receiving crude in Naira,” Edwin said. “Some unresolved issues include the pricing of crude, the pricing mechanism, and determining the appropriate exchange rate for the Naira.”

Impact of Boycott on Nigeria’s Energy Security

The importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) continues to soar, with Nigeria spending N3.22 trillion on petrol imports in the second quarter of 2024 alone, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This import bill represents a 100% increase compared to the same period in 2023, signaling the ongoing reliance on foreign products despite Dangote Refinery’s ability to meet local demand.

Energy experts have raised concerns over the reluctance of local marketers to support Dangote Refinery, viewing the situation as a deliberate pushback by those benefiting from importing substandard petroleum products into the country. Kelvin Emmanuel, an energy expert, highlighted that some state actors are involved in the conspiracy to block local refining efforts while continuing the importation of lower-quality fuel.

“You see the conspiracy I speak of? These are the people working with state actors to ensure Nigeria doesn’t achieve energy security, while they keep importing ‘dirty’ substandard petrol and diesel that can only be accepted in Nigeria,” Emmanuel stated.

The ongoing importation of substandard products, and a potential boycott of locally refined goods, are a threat to Nigeria’s efforts to achieve energy security and backward integration. Emmanuel explained that international blending plants are under a “take or pay” contract, meaning that the transshipment of substandard fuel into Nigeria will continue until at least the end of 2024.