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Tinubu: Three Years of Renewed Hope or Sustained Progress?

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As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks the third anniversary of his administration, Nigeria stands at a definitive crossroads between the “foundational sacrifice” of his early tenure and the “visible recovery” he now proclaims. Since assuming office in May 2023, the administration has moved through a narrative arc that transitioned from urgent, painful reforms to a claim of undeniable progress. Yet, the central question remains: is the “Renewed Hope” agenda a burgeoning reality or a collection of sustained, albeit difficult, structural adjustments? To assess these three years, one must look beyond the rhetoric to the performative nature of the administration’s governance and the tangible shifts in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape.

The Foundation of Reform: Choosing Reform over Ruin

The administration began in 2023 with a “thunderbolt” announcement that “subsidy is gone,” a decision aimed at ending a regime that drained ?18.4 billion daily from the national treasury. This “courageous action” was presented as the only alternative to a fiscal breakdown that would have led to a plunging Naira and an economy in free-fall. While the unification of exchange rates and the removal of subsidies created “enormous pressure” on families and job seekers, the President maintains these were necessary to stop the economy from “bleeding”. This first year was defined by a call for “foundational sacrifice,” asking Nigerians to endure a temporary period of pain for long-term national recovery.

Macroeconomic Stabilisation: The Narrative of Progress

By the second anniversary in 2025, the administration shifted its tone to “Undeniable Progress,” reporting that the fiscal deficit had narrowed sharply from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024. Strategic indicators began to show a turnaround; net external reserves grew by almost 500%, surging from $4 billion to over $23 billion by the end of 2024. Furthermore, bold tax reforms saw the tax-to-GDP ratio rise from 10% to 13.5% in just one year, aimed at making the system fairer and more growth-oriented. Supporters argue these metrics signal a more competitive economy, evidenced by a stock market where market capitalisation surged from ?30 trillion in 2023 to a record ?160 trillion by 2026.

Youth and Infrastructure: The Engine of the Future

Perhaps the most significant pillar of the administration’s third-year outlook is the repositioning of Nigerian youth as the primary “engine of Nigeria’s future”. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) has emerged as a landmark intervention, providing over 1.5 million students with access to higher education and disbursing more than ?282 billion to remove financial barriers. This focus on human capital is matched by a massive infrastructure drive, with over 2,700 kilometres of highways—including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway—under construction to boost trade and create thousands of jobs. Additionally, the Renewed Hope Housing Programme has delivered over 10,000 units across 14 states, directly generating over 300,000 jobs for young artisans and professionals.

The Paradox of Resilience: Hardship vs. Recovery

Despite these institutional gains, a stark counter-narrative persists among the populace and opposition figures. Critics highlight that the reforms have triggered hyperinflation, which climbed to 33.69% by 2024, with food inflation exceeding 40%. The “rising cost of living” has led some civil society groups to describe the last three years as a period of “hunger, hardship, and pain,” arguing that the benefits of foreign investment have yet to reach the average household. While the administration points to “ease-of-doing-business” successes, businesses continue to struggle with high interest rates and a weakened currency. This creates a “paradox” where macroeconomic indicators improve while widespread economic inequality and poverty remain at an all-time high.

A Marathon of Renewal

President Tinubu’s third-year address serves as a “call to national purpose,” asserting that history tests nations before it elevates them. The administration has successfully moved from “laying the foundation” to implementing high-impact programmes like the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) initiative and the Presidential CNG scheme to reduce transport costs. However, the durability of this democracy hinges on bridging the gap between “reform rhetoric” and the “lived realities” of Nigerians.

Whether the last three years represent “Renewed Hope” or merely “Sustained Progress” depends on one’s perspective: the investor seeing a booming stock market or the worker facing rising food prices. The foundation for recovery has undoubtedly been laid through difficult and often unpopular decisions. The task for the remaining tenure is to ensure that the “signs of recovery” currently visible in economic data become a tangible reality in the daily lives of all Nigerians. The administration’s legacy will ultimately be defined by its ability to translate these structural gains into shared prosperity and lasting social stability.

Tinubu: Assessing Three Years of Youth-Centric Reform

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On the third anniversary of his administration, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presented a vision of a nation in recovery, positioning Nigerian youth not as a demographic to be managed, but as the primary “engine of Nigeria’s future”. Since May 2023, the administration has navigated a landscape of profound economic and structural difficulties, implementing reforms that, while requiring significant sacrifice, are now yielding tangible progress for the younger generation.

Before 2023, Nigerian youth faced a “perfect storm” of economic instability. The administration identified “mounting fiscal pressures,” “exchange-rate distortions,” and “unsustainable fuel subsidies” as systemic failures that pushed the nation toward “fiscal breakdown”. These structural issues led to a “rising cost of living,” leaving many young job seekers feeling “discouraged”.

The Foundation of Reform and Sacrifice

The journey toward “Renewed Hope” began with what the President describes as “urgent and courageous action”. Upon assuming office in 2023, the nation was bleeding ?18.4 billion daily to sustain petrol subsidies—a staggering ?4 trillion annually that could have been directed toward education and healthcare. By choosing “reform over ruin,” the administration unified exchange rates and ended the subsidy regime, despite the resulting “enormous pressure” on families and job-seeking youth. These difficult decisions were taken to prevent a total fiscal breakdown and lay a foundation for long-term national recovery.

Education: Democratising Access through NELFUND

One of the most significant pillars of hope for Nigerian students has been the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND). Since its inception, NELFUND has become a vital tool for social mobility, providing over 1.5 million students with access to higher education. By disbursing more than ?282 billion, the administration has sought to ensure that financial hardship is no longer a barrier to those willing to learn, effectively securing the academic future of a generation.

Job Creation Through Massive Infrastructure

The administration’s commitment to youth employment is visible in its massive infrastructure drive. Over 2,700 kilometres of highways, including landmark projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, are currently under construction or rehabilitation. These projects are not merely roads; they are job creators that have already generated thousands of opportunities for young Nigerians in construction and logistics.

Furthermore, the Renewed Hope Housing Programme, alongside the Federal Housing Authority, is delivering over 10,000 housing units across 14 states. This initiative has directly created over 300,000 jobs, providing immediate livelihoods for young artisans and professionals while addressing the nation’s housing deficit.

Digital Innovation and Economic Resilience Recognising the youth’s prowess in technology, the government has taken decisive action to stabilise the telecommunications sector, a key driver of modern growth. Telecom operators are now expanding their networks and actively “recruiting Nigerian talent”. The administration is backing this with investments in digital skills, technical education, and innovation, ensuring that the future economy is driven by Nigerian creativity and productivity.

This focus on competitiveness is reflected in the Nigerian stock market. Since 2023, the All Share Index has surged from 53,000 to a record 250,000, with market capitalisation rising from ?30 trillion to ?160 trillion. This “booming” market signals a more fertile environment for young entrepreneurs and investors to succeed.

The Path Forward: Inclusion and Unity

As the administration enters its fourth year, the President has emphasised that the task is to ensure the benefits of reform are felt more directly. Plans are underway to reduce transportation costs through the conversion to CNG and electric vehicles, and agricultural corridors are being opened to support young farmers and lower food prices.

President Tinubu’s message to the youth remains “This nation believes in you”. By choosing “hope over despair” and “nation-building over narrow interests,” the administration asserts that the sacrifices of the last three years have set the stage for a stronger, fairer, and more prosperous Nigeria. For the Nigerian youth, the “Renewed Hope” agenda is no longer just a slogan, but a developing reality built on the pillars of education, infrastructure, and digital empowerment.

How Professor Ojebuyi’s Communication Research Humanises Technology, Strengthens Digital Society

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Technology often receives praise for its ability to transform economies, improve healthcare, expand education, and deepen democratic engagement. Yet, across many societies, particularly in Africa, a persistent challenge is that technology does not automatically improve lives simply because it exists. The real determinant of success lies in whether people trust, understand, adopt, and meaningfully benefit from it.

Professor Ojebuyi’s communication research addresses this critical reality. His scholarship does not focus on inventing new technologies. Instead, it examines a deeper and more consequential question: how communication can bridge the gap between innovation and human experience. Through evidence-based research, Professor Ojebuyi consistently demonstrates that technology succeeds when people are prepared, informed, and empowered to engage with it responsibly.

Digital Citizenship Communication Framework

Rapid digital expansion across Africa has unlocked enormous opportunities for participation, learning, and access to information. However, it has also introduced risks such as misinformation, harmful online behaviour, and digital exclusion. Professor Ojebuyi’s research establishes that digital citizenship depends on media literacy, ethical online participation, communication competence, and informed civic engagement.

Importantly, the findings reveal that access alone is insufficient. Simply placing people online does not guarantee responsible participation. Citizens require the skills to navigate digital environments critically and ethically. As a result, the research advocates digital literacy education, responsible online engagement frameworks, and policies that encourage ethical digital participation. This work directly benefits students, youth, educational institutions, governments, and civil society organisations seeking healthier digital ecosystems.

Human-Centred Technology Adoption Model

One recurring failure in technology implementation stems from excessive focus on infrastructure while neglecting human adaptation. Many institutions invest heavily in ICT systems without preparing users to engage effectively with them.

Professor Ojebuyi’s research shows that successful ICT integration depends on communication competence, user preparedness, organisational adaptation, and training systems. Technology adoption frequently fails when institutions overlook behavioural barriers and communication challenges.

The implication is that digital transformation cannot be achieved through hardware alone. Institutions must prioritise user-centred implementation, communication-sensitive planning, and sustained training systems. Educational institutions, businesses, government agencies, and employees stand to benefit significantly from this practical model of adoption.

Technology-Enhanced Communication Learning Model

Educational systems across the world face increasing pressure to improve communication competence in rapidly evolving digital environments. Professor Ojebuyi’s research demonstrates that technology-mediated learning can strengthen communication skills, improve learning outcomes, support language acquisition, and increase educational accessibility.

However, the evidence also suggests that educational technologies only improve engagement when thoughtfully implemented. Technology itself is not the teacher. Rather, it becomes an enabler when integrated with effective communication strategies and educator preparedness.

This research recommends wider ICT integration in communication education, stronger teacher training, and investment in accessible learning technologies. Students, teachers, policymakers, and educational institutions emerge as key beneficiaries of this communication-driven approach to digital learning.

Digital Participation and Civic Mobilisation Model

Digital spaces increasingly shape democratic participation, yet institutions often misunderstand online engagement. Professor Ojebuyi’s work highlights how social media platforms can mobilise participation, amplify civic voices, and influence governance debates.

His findings reveal that digital communication has become a powerful tool for democratic resistance, accountability, and public engagement. Citizens no longer function merely as observers. Instead, they actively participate in governance conversations.

Consequently, the research encourages governments to recognise digital civic participation as legitimate democratic engagement. Responsive governance and constructive government-citizen communication online are essential to strengthening trust and democratic accountability. Policymakers, advocacy organisations, civil society groups, and citizens all benefit from this framework.

Digital Information Engagement Model

In moments of crisis, information can save lives or fuel panic. Professor Ojebuyi’s research demonstrates that online audiences actively shape information circulation rather than passively consume news. People share information because of emotional reactions, perceived usefulness, trust, and urgency.

This insight is particularly important in an age of information overload, where misinformation spreads rapidly during emergencies. Effective crisis communication, therefore, requires more than fact dissemination. It demands audience-sensitive messaging and strategic public communication that understands how people engage with digital information.

Media organisations, public health agencies, and citizens all benefit from stronger misinformation management strategies informed by communication science.

Digital Transformation Readiness Model

Digitisation offers enormous opportunities for media institutions, particularly broadcasters. Yet, transitions often expose challenges related to infrastructure, skills gaps, and organisational readiness. Professor Ojebuyi’s findings show that digital transformation succeeds when institutions invest in professional training, digital capacity building, and adaptation systems that support human transition alongside technological change.

Broadcasters, journalism schools, and media organisations can particularly benefit from this communication-centred transition model.

AI-Assisted Information Governance Framework

As misinformation grows faster than traditional fact-checking systems can respond, artificial intelligence increasingly offers scalable solutions. Professor Ojebuyi’s research identifies the benefits of AI in misinformation detection, including faster verification and greater scalability.

However, the research also cautions against ethical risks such as manipulation, bias, and misuse. Rather than replacing human judgement, the recommended approach emphasises human-AI collaboration, ethical standards, and public digital literacy.

Governments, media organisations, technology companies, and citizens all stand to benefit from safer information ecosystems grounded in ethical communication principles.

Technology Acceptance Communication Model

Emerging medical technologies often face resistance because of misunderstanding, ethical concerns, and poor communication. Professor Ojebuyi’s research finds that healthcare technologies perform better when communication is culturally grounded, trust mechanisms exist, and users understand the benefits involved.

The studies further establish that communication significantly increases willingness to engage with complex health technologies. This underscores the importance of participatory communication, public education, transparency, and community engagement.

For patients, hospitals, researchers, and healthcare institutions, trust-building communication becomes essential to successful innovation adoption.

Our analyst notes that when communication humanises technology, societies become more inclusive, informed, ethical, and resilient. In this sense, Professor Ojebuyi’s work offers a compelling blueprint for strengthening digital society through the power of human understanding.

Michael Saylor Urges Investors to “HODL” as Bitcoin Faces Renewed Selling Pressure

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As Bitcoin faces renewed selling pressure trading below the $73,000 price level, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor delivered one of his most striking messages yet, simply the word “HODL”.

This comes at a relevant time when Bitcoin pulled back from highs above $80,000 earlier in the month, testing the $73K–$75K zone amid profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and leveraged liquidations.

In the early Asian trading session on Thursday, Bitcoin traded as low as $72,600, which saw liquidation of leveraged positions across the crypto market.

According to reports the crypto markets have shed around $80 billion in value over the past 24 hours, with losses accelerating after the US reportedly carried out a new wave of military strikes on Iran.

The US military carried out new strikes late on Wednesday targeting ?an Iranian military site and shooting down four Iranian attack drones, which a US official told Reuters posed a threat around the Strait of Hormuz.

The strikes came during negotiations to end the war that began on Feb. 28 with US and Israeli attacks. US President Donald Trump said at a White House cabinet meeting on Wednesday that he was “not satisfied” with a deal with Iran and alluded to further military action.

This geopolitical tension has sent the crypto markets tumbling to their lowest level since mid-April, after the market had climbed earlier this week following Trump’s disclosure that a peace deal would soon be finalized.

The dip has triggered the usual fear, uncertainty, and doubt, with short-term traders and analysts calling for further downside toward $68K–$70K.

In a post on X, Tim Warren Trades wrote,

“As Bitcoin price continues to whip around, I’d encourage people not to jump to any financial conclusions just yet. Don’t be too bullish, don’t be too bearish. Next 2 months could literally send us in either direction explosively”.

Also, MN Fund founder and investment chief Michael van de Poppe, says Bitcoin recent price action is just an end-of-the-month correction, noting that a “cooldown is underway. “Bitcoin showing weakness isn’t a recipe for a new low, as of yet,” he wrote in a post on X.

Amidst all these, Saylor’s “HODL” post serves as a calm as Bitcoin bearish pressure continues to linger.

The Strategy CEO is reminding investors  that the trajectory will change and their job is not to react to it. Bitcoin is widely regarded as one of the most volatile financial assets in modern markets, with price movements that can shift dramatically within hours or even minutes.

While daily charts create panic and noise, true Bitcoin ownership is about holding through volatility.

Strategy continues to embody this at scale, maintaining its massive Bitcoin treasury and repeatedly buying dips even as prices fluctuate.

Bitcoin has endured far deeper corrections in the past, including 50%+ drawdowns, only to reach new all-time highs. Those who stayed centered through the brutal 2022 bear market were handsomely rewarded.

The current dip below $73K, while uncomfortable for recent buyers, remains relatively mild in Bitcoin’s long-term history.

Bitcoin’s value is not defined by its price on any single day. The transformation from bear to bull always comes for those who maintain discipline and patience.Sit. Breathe. HODL.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin remains tightly tied to macroeconomic conditions, liquidity flows, and geopolitical developments.

In the short run, volatility is likely to persist as markets continue to react to shifts in risk sentiment, particularly around global tensions, interest rate expectations, and institutional positioning.

While the immediate environment points to continued turbulence and uncertainty, the longer-term narrative for Bitcoin remains one of structural adoption, cyclical recovery, and gradual maturation as a global digital asset.

Treasury Yields Rebound, Gold Sinks to Two-Month Low as Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears

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U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Thursday while gold tumbled deeper into a sharp correction, as renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran reignited fears of persistent inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.

The move across global markets highlights how rapidly investor sentiment has shifted from optimism about slowing inflation to growing concern that the Middle East conflict could trigger another energy-driven price shock similar to previous geopolitical crises.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.49%, while the more policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose above 4.05%. The 30-year bond yield hovered above the psychologically important 5% threshold, reflecting mounting concern about inflation, fiscal pressures, and long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. economy.

The latest jump in yields followed Iranian strikes on a U.S. military base earlier in the session, a retaliation that sharply reduced hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution. Oil traders responded by pushing Brent crude higher after fears intensified over potential disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping corridors.

The market reaction shows that global financial conditions remain closely tied to energy markets. Rising crude prices are feeding directly into inflation expectations because higher transportation and fuel costs eventually ripple through food, manufacturing, and consumer goods prices.

That dynamic is becoming increasingly problematic for the Federal Reserve.

Investors are now closely watching the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, amid growing concern that inflationary pressures are becoming more entrenched. Economists expect the monthly reading to remain at 0.3%, a pace still inconsistent with the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Analysts note that if inflation remains stubborn while oil prices continue climbing, the Fed could face pressure not only to delay rate cuts but potentially to resume tightening later this year or in early 2027.

That prospect has already begun reshaping market expectations. Interest-rate futures now reflect rising odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase, a dramatic reversal from earlier expectations that policymakers would soon begin easing monetary conditions. The combination of war-driven energy inflation, strong labor markets, and heavy AI-related investment spending has complicated the Fed’s path.

Kevin Warsh, who recently assumed leadership of the central bank, is confronting what analysts describe as one of the most difficult policy environments in years.

Richard Portes, professor at the London Business School, said Warsh had been “dealt a very bad hand,” noting that although President Donald Trump continues pressing for lower borrowing costs, economic conditions may instead force the Fed toward a more hawkish stance.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reinforced that message on Wednesday, saying policymakers are prepared to raise rates if inflationary pressures intensify further because of tariffs, the Iran conflict, and surging AI-driven investment activity.

The renewed rise in Treasury yields delivered another blow to gold prices.

Spot gold fell to around $4,390 per ounce, its lowest level in roughly two months, while U.S. futures also slid sharply. The decline is significant because gold had previously benefited from geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand earlier in the year.

Now, however, rising yields and a stronger U.S. dollar are overwhelming gold’s traditional appeal as an inflation hedge.

When interest rates rise, non-yielding assets such as bullion become less attractive relative to government bonds and other income-generating investments. The stronger dollar also increases the cost of gold for international buyers, further weighing on demand.

Analysts say the market is now treating the Middle East conflict primarily as an inflationary shock rather than a conventional safe-haven event.

“Gold drops to a two-month low and into bear market territory as fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities douse hopes of a deal,” said Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu.com.

He noted that higher oil prices are intensifying fears of prolonged inflation and reinforcing “higher-for-longer” interest-rate expectations.

The selloff extended across precious metals markets. Silver, platinum, and palladium all declined sharply, with platinum and silver touching near one-month lows.

Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting a series of additional U.S. economic releases, including quarterly GDP figures, personal income and spending data, and durable goods orders. Together, the data could provide a clearer picture of whether the economy remains resilient enough to withstand tighter monetary conditions and rising geopolitical stress.

The broader concern for markets is that the world economy may be entering a stagflationary environment, where slower growth collides with persistent inflation. Elevated oil prices, disrupted trade routes, and rising borrowing costs are creating conditions that could pressure both consumers and corporate earnings simultaneously.

Currently, financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle is far from over, and that the Iran conflict may have reopened a new and dangerous inflation front for the global economy.