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Uranium Falls 15% – Gold and Silver Continue Massive Rally

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Uranium (U3O8) prices surged in late January 2026, briefly exceeding $100–$101.50 per pound (hitting levels not seen since early 2024), driven by strong buying from entities like the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, expectations of rising nuclear demand and structural supply constraints.

However, prices have pulled back sharply in the first days of February: Futures fell around 5% overnight to $86 per pound in some reports, putting them 15% below last week’s peak. Recent quotes show levels around $85.70–$87.55 per pound like Trading Economics at $87.55 on Feb 4, down ~4.6% that day; other sources ~$85–$92 range.

This correction stems from factors like higher-than-expected supply announcements from Uzbekistan/Kazatomprom, profit-taking after the rapid run-up, and broader market dynamics including links to softer AI/tech sentiment impacting nuclear power demand expectations.

This has triggered heavy selling in uranium-related stocks, particularly on the ASX, contributing to declines in materials sectors. Meanwhile, gold and silver have experienced their own dramatic volatility around the same period: Both metals hit record highs recently (gold above $5,500–$5,600/oz, silver above $120/oz in some reports).

They then plunged sharply in a major sell-off; one of the worst in decades for precious metals, with gold dropping 9–21% from peaks to ~$4,400–$4,900/oz range in corrections, and silver falling even more steeply (15–40% from highs, to ~$70–$80/oz in lows).

Drivers included a stronger US dollar, shifts in monetary policy expectations; Fed chair nomination influencing leverage and risk sentiment, margin hikes on futures exchanges, and profit-taking after explosive gains.

The uranium drop appears more isolated to supply surprises and post-rally consolidation, while gold/silver’s moves tie into broader macro/commodity rotations.

Uranium remains in a longer-term bullish structural setup (supply deficits, nuclear renaissance), with forecasts pointing back toward $100+ later in 2026 or beyond, despite near-term weakness.

The surge in AI data centers is dramatically increasing global electricity demand, positioning nuclear power—including traditional reactors and emerging small modular reactors (SMRs)—as a key solution for reliable, clean, 24/7 baseload energy.

Explosive Demand Growth from AI Data Centers

AI workloads, particularly training and inference on large models, require massive, constant power. Data centers already consume significant electricity, and AI is accelerating this.

Global data center electricity demand rose sharply, with projections showing it could exceed 1,000 TWh by 2030 from ~460 TWh in 2024, potentially accounting for over 20% of electricity-demand growth in advanced economies.

In the US, data centers used ~183 TWh in 2024 about 4% of total electricity, expected to more than double to ~426 TWh by 2030. AI-specific demand could drive even steeper growth: Some forecasts suggest AI data center power needs surging dramatically, with global AI-related demand potentially reaching 68 GW by 2027 and much higher by 2030.

A single large AI-focused data center can consume as much power as 100,000 households, with hyperscale facilities under construction needing 20x that amount. Power shortages are already a top barrier, with analysts predicting constraints halting growth for many facilities by 2026–2027, forcing strategic shifts; building in power-rich regions or pursuing dedicated sources.

This has strained grids, leading tech giants to seek alternatives beyond intermittent renewables like solar/wind, which can’t guarantee constant supply. Nuclear provides high-capacity-factor ~92–93%, carbon-free power ideal for AI’s non-stop needs. Major deals in 2025–2026 reflect this pivot: Microsoft restarted Three Mile Island (Pennsylvania) via a long-term deal with Constellation Energy ~835 MW targeted for 2028.

Google partnered with Kairos Power for up to 500 MW of SMRs (first online ~2030) and NextEra for reopening Duane Arnold (Iowa, ~2029). Amazon invested in X-energy SMRs and deals like Talen Energy’s Susquehanna plant ~1.9 GW through 2042.

Meta announced agreements with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower for up to 6.6 GW by 2035, including existing plants and new SMRs—positioning it as one of the largest corporate nuclear buyers. These commitments often 10–20+ GW combined across hyperscalers support SMR development and plant extensions/revivals.

Governments and pledges to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 align with this. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as the Game-Changer; SMRs typically <300 MW per unit, factory-built, scalable suit data centers perfectly: Compact footprints allow on-site or near-site deployment, reducing transmission needs.

Enhanced safety, flexibility, and faster build times compared to traditional reactors. Ideal for concentrated, gigawatt-scale loads from hyperscale campuses. Tech firms back SMR startups with pilots and regulatory progress aiming for 2026–2030 deployments.

Forecasts see SMRs playing a growing role post-2030, potentially meeting significant US data center demand. Regulatory hurdles, high upfront costs, long timelines (first commercial SMRs likely 2030+), and supply chain issues. Near-term, natural gas and renewables bridge gaps, but nuclear’s reliability makes it central long-term.

This nuclear renaissance underpins uranium demand. AI-driven power needs contribute to structural supply deficits (underinvestment in mines), pushing prices higher in early 2026 (spot ~$94–$100+/lb peaks). Even with recent corrections, the outlook remains bullish for uranium as nuclear capacity expands to fuel AI growth.

AI is catalyzing nuclear’s revival—potentially a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity—while addressing energy security, climate goals, and compute demands. If regulations evolve favorably, SMRs could transform data center power by the early 2030s.

Tekedia Capital Congratulates TradeGrid for Great 2025 Numbers: 10X Year-on-Year Growth

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Truly proud to commend the TradeGrid team, Africa’s fastest-growing downstream oil trader, for delivering one of the region’s standout growth performances: 10x year-on-year growth, alongside strong profitability.

This achievement reflects disciplined execution, deep industry insight, and technology purpose-built for African energy markets. The results speak clearly, not only in Nigeria, but also with a strong showing in Kenya.

This is scaling, not just growth: durable, compounding progress built on fundamentals. Well done, team. Let us win 2026.

Hello, Market: here, we welcome another strong IPO candidate for Africa, joining our breakout Ghana-based portfolio biotech company, Revna Biosciences, which has scaled precision medicine across the continent.

At Tekedia Capital, we celebrate our founders who are executing the mission, building critical capabilities that advance the wealth of nations and the prosperity of our communities. Big salute to Tekedia Capital builders, find more markets and win.

 

Ndubuisi Ekekwe, PhD

  • Member of Board, TradeGrid, USA & Africa
  • Member of Board, Revna Biosciences, USA & Africa
  • Chairman, Tekedia Capital

BYD Bets on Deep Localization in Brazil as It Chases Market Leadership and Regional Exports

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On the grounds of a former Ford stronghold in Brazil’s Bahia state, Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD is attempting something few foreign automakers have managed in recent years: rebuilding large-scale car manufacturing in the country while fending off political, labor, and industry backlash.

BYD is targeting 50% local production and sourcing of vehicle components at its new Camaçari factory by the end of 2026, a move the company says is essential to its ambition of becoming Brazil’s top-selling automaker by 2030. The push toward localization comes as critics accuse the EV maker of undercutting domestic manufacturers through heavy reliance on imports and temporary tariff exemptions.

“We got here at a very fast speed — the pace that we need to maintain to reach this goal,” Alexandre Baldy, BYD’s senior vice president in Brazil, told Reuters during a visit to the sprawling industrial complex.

The internal deadline for meeting the 50% local-content threshold is January 1, 2027, he said, covering both components produced in-house and parts supplied by Brazilian firms, including tires and other key inputs.

The factory, located near Salvador, has already produced about 25,000 electric and hybrid vehicles since operations began in October, making Brazil BYD’s largest market outside China. The site spans more than 4 million square meters and occupies land vacated by Ford Motor Co when the U.S. automaker shut its Brazilian manufacturing operations in 2021, a decision that sent shockwaves through the local economy.

The symbolism of BYD’s arrival has been underscored by the city of Camaçari renaming a nearby avenue from Henry Ford to BYD, marking a sharp transition from American to Chinese industrial influence. For Brazilian policymakers eager to revive manufacturing and attract foreign investment, the project represents both opportunity and risk.

At present, BYD assembles vehicles using semi-knocked-down (SKD) kits imported from abroad, a model that benefited from an import tax exemption that recently expired. Baldy said the company will seek an additional quota to extend the exemption through the middle of this year, but stressed that SKD assembly is only a bridge to full-scale local production.

“Cars must be produced with local components to be economically and financially viable,” he said, adding that stamping, welding, and painting facilities at the plant are nearing completion.

Those upgrades are part of BYD’s first investment phase in Brazil, valued at 5.5 billion reais ($1.1 billion). The company plans to lift annual capacity to 300,000 vehicles, up from an estimated 150,000 units by the end of 2026. Meeting local-content requirements will also unlock a new strategic goal: exporting vehicles from Brazil to neighboring Mercosur countries, potentially as soon as this year.

That prospect has heightened concerns among regional automakers and labor unions, who argue that BYD’s rapid expansion, aided by lower-cost Chinese imports and favorable tariff treatment, threatens domestic producers. Brazil has already begun phasing tariffs back in on imported electric vehicles, a move widely seen as an attempt to force companies like BYD to invest more deeply in local manufacturing.

Baldy said BYD is responding by accelerating production lines that will eventually generate up to 20,000 jobs in Brazil. The Camaçari complex currently employs about 5,000 workers, including roughly 2,300 BYD staff and around 2,500 contractors and service providers.

For some employees, the return of car production to the site carries emotional weight. Adson Santana, a BYD assembly manager, said he was overcome when he returned to the same factory grounds where he once worked for Ford before its closure. The American automaker’s exit left thousands unemployed and symbolized the decline of Brazil’s auto manufacturing base.

BYD’s expansion has also faced scrutiny beyond trade and industrial policy. Last year, prosecutors launched a labor investigation into conditions during the construction of the plant. The case was settled late in the year, with contractors agreeing to pay 40 million reais in damages. Baldy said the compliance agreement was signed by the contractors, not BYD, though the episode highlighted the reputational and regulatory risks surrounding the project.

As BYD presses ahead, its Brazilian strategy is increasingly viewed as a test case for how Chinese manufacturers can adapt to political and economic realities outside their home market. Success in Camaçari would give BYD not just a dominant foothold in Brazil, but a regional export hub and a powerful counter to claims that its global rise is built solely on imports.

Now, Brazil must weigh the benefits of jobs, investment, and cheaper electric vehicles against the long-term health of its domestic auto industry.

Balaji Srinivasan is More Bullish on Crypto Than Ever Before

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Balaji Srinivasan former Coinbase CTO, author of The Network State, and a prominent crypto advocate He wrote on X: I have never been more bullish on crypto.

Because the rules-based order is collapsing and the code-based order is rising. So the short term price doesn’t matter. As international law breaks down, we will need not just onchain currencies, but onchain companies. As the post-war order breaks down, we’ll similarly need the post-internet order. States will fail, and the network will take their place.

We need internet capitalism, we need internet democracy, and we need internet privacy. So we need cryptocurrency. This came in response to a post suggesting that smart people might flee crypto amid short-term volatility or exits from projects.

The statement has gained significant traction (thousands of likes, reposts, and views within hours) and is being covered in crypto media outlet like CoinDesk especially as Bitcoin has recently dipped below $70,000, sparking broader market panic among some traders.

Balaji’s view frames the current dip as irrelevant noise compared to a larger macro shift: declining trust in traditional geopolitical/institutional systems (“rules-based order”) and the rise of decentralized, code-enforced alternatives (“code-based order”).

He ties this to the need for blockchain-based economies, privacy tools, and new forms of governance as states potentially weaken. This aligns with his long-standing themes around network states, crypto as a foundation for internet-native systems, and skepticism toward legacy institutions.

It’s a strongly optimistic long-term take amid short-term bearish sentiment in parts of the market. The network state is a concept popularized and largely originated by Balaji Srinivasan, former Coinbase CTO, investor, and author of the 2022 book The Network State: How To Start a New Country.

It’s a vision for the successor to the traditional nation-state in a digital, internet-connected world. In its simplest, one-sentence form (as Balaji often summarizes it): A network state is a highly aligned online community with a capacity for collective action that crowdfunds territory around the world and eventually gains diplomatic recognition from pre-existing states.

A more detailed version from his writings includes additional elements: A social network with moral innovation (a shared purpose, proposition, or “national consciousness”). A recognized founder or leader. An integrated cryptocurrency for economic coordination and sovereignty.

A consensual government limited by a social smart contract. The ability to crowdfund and acquire physical territory not necessarily contiguous—think distributed enclaves or an “archipelago”. It’s essentially a startup society that scales from an online community ? a digitally coordinated group with real economic power ? a physical presence ? something recognized as a sovereign entity.

Based on coercive citizenship you’re born into it or naturalize under monopoly rules. Governed by centralized institutions with monopoly on violence. Often inherited rather than chosen. Network states flip this: Start cloud-first (digital, opt-in, global recruitment like a startup or social network).

Voluntary and exit-oriented (you can leave/fork easily; “exit over voice”). Non-contiguous territory (scattered properties linked digitally, like remote company offices or Bitcoin nodes). Built on code (cryptography, smart contracts, on-chain governance) rather than just laws.

Recruit like startups via memes, ideology, crypto incentives rather than birthright. Prioritize decentralized consent (100% opt-in democracy vs. 51% majority rule). Balaji describes it poetically as: A country you can start from your computer. A DAO that materializes in patches of earth.

A nation built from the internet rather than disrupted by it. An archipelago of digitally-linked enclaves. Balaji outlines a reproducible, peaceful process (the “quickstart” in his book and site):Network Society — Build a highly aligned online community around a shared moral innovation or proposition (e.g., health-focused, crypto-native, environmentalist).

Network Union — Organize for collective action (coordination tools, crypto treasury, on-chain metrics). Network Archipelago — Crowdfund and acquire distributed physical properties worldwide (houses, buildings, land via crypto). Scale population/income/territory ? gain diplomatic recognition (negotiate with existing states, perhaps through economic leverage or treaties).

The idea draws from historical precedents like charter cities, special economic zones, seasteading, crypto projects, and even religious diasporas like the Catholic Church as a pre-digital analog with moral mission, global coordination, and land holdings). Balaji ties network states to the “code-based order” rising as the “rules-based order” (traditional geopolitics/international law) collapses.

Internet-native capitalism, democracy, and privacy. Alternatives to failing states via decentralized networks. It’s not about replacing every nation-state overnight but creating parallel, opt-in systems that outperform legacy ones in trust, efficiency, and resilience—especially as digital tools (blockchain, AI, remote coordination) make geography less relevant.

Alphabet’s Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Massive AI Spending Push, Raising Questions Over Returns and Risk

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Alphabet’s latest earnings once again underscored the company’s financial strength, but the market reaction showed that strong topline growth is no longer enough to reassure investors in an era defined by an escalating artificial intelligence arms race.

Shares of the Google parent slid in premarket trading despite beating expectations on both revenue and earnings, as attention quickly shifted to the sheer scale of its planned increase in AI-related capital expenditure.

Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion, comfortably ahead of the $111.43 billion expected by analysts, according to LSEG data. The results confirmed that the company continues to grow at scale, even as advertising markets remain uneven globally. Google Cloud stood out as the clear growth engine, posting revenue of $17.66 billion versus forecasts of $16.18 billion, reinforcing its rising importance within Alphabet’s broader business model.

Cloud’s performance is increasingly tied to Alphabet’s AI ambitions. Enterprise customers are adopting Google’s Gemini models for data analytics, application development, and generative AI use cases, driving higher usage of compute-intensive services. Management has repeatedly framed Cloud as the primary commercial outlet for DeepMind’s research breakthroughs, turning advanced models into recurring revenue streams. That narrative found some support in the numbers, with analysts pointing to strong backlog growth and rising demand for AI-related workloads.

Advertising, however, delivered a more nuanced picture. YouTube advertising revenue came in at $11.38 billion, missing expectations of $11.84 billion. While still growing year-on-year, the miss highlights lingering pressure in the digital advertising market, where competition from platforms such as TikTok and shifting brand budgets continue to cap upside. Search advertising, long Alphabet’s profit engine, showed signs of acceleration, but investors appear increasingly focused on how AI-driven changes to search could reshape monetization over time.

The dominant theme from the earnings call was Alphabet’s guidance on spending. The company said it plans to lift capital expenditure to between $175 billion and $185 billion in 2026, more than double its 2025 outlay. A substantial portion of that spending will be directed toward AI compute capacity, including data centers, custom chips, and infrastructure to support Google DeepMind’s expanding model portfolio.

This level of investment places Alphabet at the center of an industry-wide spending surge. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have all signaled aggressive AI buildouts, but Alphabet’s projected capex stands out for its scale. The spending reflects a strategic calculation that leadership in foundational AI models and infrastructure will define competitive advantage for the next decade, even if it weighs on margins in the near term.

Analysts remain split on the implications. Barclays said costs tied to Infrastructure, DeepMind, and Waymo have already weighed on profitability and are likely to continue doing so. Still, the bank argued that Cloud’s growth trajectory and DeepMind’s progress help justify the aggressive spending, describing the combination of accelerating Search and improving AI economics as central to Alphabet’s long-term thesis.

Deutsche Bank took a more cautious stance, noting that Alphabet’s capex plan has “stunned the world” at a time when the technology sector is in flux. The bank questioned whether such an outsized investment would translate into durable returns or simply intensify competitive pressure across the industry.

Investor concerns are also shaped by broader market dynamics. Big tech valuations are increasingly sensitive to free cash flow and capital discipline, particularly as interest rates remain elevated. Heavy AI spending raises the risk that returns could take longer to materialize, especially if pricing power in cloud and AI services becomes constrained by competition.

Alphabet’s Management, in a clear strategy, is signaling that it is willing to absorb near-term margin pressure to secure long-term dominance in AI infrastructure, models, and applications. The gamble is that Gemini, DeepMind, and Google Cloud together can generate enough high-margin revenue over time to justify today’s unprecedented investment.

The immediate market reaction suggests skepticism rather than outright rejection. Investors appear to be weighing Alphabet’s proven ability to execute against the uncertainty surrounding the economics of AI at scale. As the industry moves deeper into a capital-intensive phase, Alphabet’s results show that beating earnings expectations may no longer be the decisive metric. Instead, confidence is expected to hinge on the company’s ability to convincingly demonstrate that its AI spending spree will translate into sustainable growth, defensible margins, and lasting competitive advantage.