Global corporations have flagged more than $35 billion in costs linked to U.S. tariffs heading into third-quarter earnings, according to a new Reuters analysis, but a growing number of firms are paring back their initial projections as new trade deals brokered by President Donald Trump begin to reduce exposure to his sweeping import levies.
Trump’s trade war, which has pushed U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, initially triggered widespread uncertainty across supply chains. But executives say that a clearer framework is emerging following the president’s bilateral agreements with major economies such as the European Union and Japan. The resulting stability has allowed many companies to recalibrate their forecasts, adjust pricing, and revive stalled investment plans.
Between July 16 and September 30, global companies reported a combined financial hit of between $21 billion and $22.9 billion for 2025, with an additional $15 billion expected for 2026. The total, which exceeds $35 billion, represents a modest increase from the $34 billion tallied in May, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs jolted global trade.
However, the rise in aggregate figures masks a trend toward downward revisions. Much of the increase stems from Toyota’s updated $9.5 billion estimate, while several other multinationals — particularly in Europe and Japan — have cut their earlier, more dire forecasts after Trump’s recent lower-rate trade agreements reduced their tariff exposure.
French spirits producers Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard, for instance, trimmed their expected losses following the EU deal, while Sony revised its August forecast downward. Trump has also carved out exemptions for certain countries; only about one-third of Brazil’s exports, for example, are now subject to the steep 50 percent tariff rate initially announced.
“Tariffs are getting clearer and clearer,” Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa told Reuters in mid-October. “We believe that tariffs will be just another variable of our business equation that we need to be ready to manage — and we will.”
Filosa spoke as Stellantis rolled out details of a new $13 billion, four-year investment plan for U.S. manufacturing, signaling that auto giants are adapting to the shifting trade landscape.
The International Chamber of Commerce’s Deputy Secretary General, Andrew Wilson, said the flurry of bilateral deals has provided a “landing point” for many companies previously paralyzed by uncertainty.
“There will continue to be much greater complexity and this massive uncertainty,” Wilson said, adding that while some stability has returned, Trump’s unpredictable trade posture still looms large over boardroom planning.
Indeed, earlier this month, Trump floated the possibility of new 100 percent tariffs on China — a move that rattled markets before he later conceded that such rates “would not be sustainable.”
Corporate Earnings Reflect Mixed Impact
S&P 500 firms are projected to report 9.3 percent earnings growth for the July–September period, down from 13.8 percent in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. Analysts attribute the slowdown partly to tariff-driven costs and inflationary pass-throughs to consumers.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is expected to post just 0.5 percent earnings growth, compared to 4 percent in the prior quarter, further reflecting the trade-related drag on multinational profits.
The hardest-hit sectors remain consumer goods and manufacturing — particularly companies that rely heavily on suppliers in nations lacking trade agreements with Washington.
Nike, which sources much of its apparel and footwear from Vietnam and other Asian countries, raised its tariff impact estimate to $1.5 billion from $1 billion late last month. In Europe, French appliance maker SEB cut its profit outlook, citing weaker consumer demand and delayed purchases “partly due to tariffs.” Meanwhile, Swedish fashion giant H&M warned that U.S. import tariffs would weigh on profit margins through November.
“We are cautious about the U.S. heading into the fourth quarter,” said H&M CEO Daniel Erver. “Tariffs are affecting our gross margin, but equally, they are impacting consumer sentiment. We can see the price increases.”
Price hikes are indeed the most common response companies have cited in the Reuters tracker, as firms attempt to pass part of the tariff burden to consumers.
Auto and Pharma Sectors Adjust Strategies
Carmakers remain among the largest victims of Trump’s trade war, with Ford, Stellantis, Volkswagen, and Toyota collectively reporting billions in added costs. Ford alone expects a cumulative $3 billion impact, though optimism is building that forthcoming tariff relief for U.S. auto production could offset many of those losses.
Drugmakers, too, are adapting by negotiating exemptions tied to pricing and domestic manufacturing. Pfizer and AstraZeneca have both struck new arrangements to mitigate tariff exposure, paving the way for similar deals across the sector.
Then and Now
The $35 billion in tariff-related costs reported by global firms today recalls the financial turbulence of the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade conflict, when corporate losses peaked above $40 billion amid tit-for-tat tariffs that hit agriculture, autos, and technology sectors. But unlike that earlier period — marked by deep supply chain paralysis and investor flight — the current phase has been tempered by targeted bilateral deals and selective exemptions.
Analysts say the difference is that companies now have clearer mechanisms to forecast exposure, even under aggressive tariff regimes, allowing them to adapt rather than freeze operations. Still, the underlying risk of escalation remains, as Trump continues to use tariffs as a primary tool of trade negotiation.
The shifting dynamics suggest that global businesses are beginning to operate with greater predictability under Trump’s aggressive trade policy — though the relief remains uneven. Companies benefiting from bilateral agreements are stabilizing, while those outside the trade pacts continue to struggle with elevated costs and logistical disruption.
Currently, the $35 billion figure captures both the lingering pain and the early signs of recalibration in a trade environment that has tested corporate agility more than any in recent memory.
