Gold surged to a record high for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, breaking past $4,300 per ounce as investors poured into safe-haven assets amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, an ongoing government shutdown in Washington, and mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold climbed 2.6% to $4,316.99 per ounce by 4:07 p.m. ET (2007 GMT), having earlier hit an all-time high of $4,318.75. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.5% higher at $4,304.60 after briefly touching $4,335. The rally underscores the extent of investor anxiety gripping global markets, pushing bullion to heights once thought implausible.

The yellow metal has gained more than 60% so far this year, propelled by a combination of factors — from geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation efforts to renewed central bank accumulation and robust inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analysts say gold’s unstoppable momentum has now placed the $5,000-per-ounce mark within sight if current conditions persist.

Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, said the trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on two key elements: the path of U.S. interest rates heading into 2026 and the evolving dynamic between Washington and Beijing.

“If no deal is reached between the U.S. and China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5,000/oz barrier,” Vawda said.

The flight to safety intensified this week after the U.S. sharply criticized Beijing’s latest restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals, describing the move as a threat to global supply chains. China, which dominates the rare earths market, expanded its export controls last week in what many in Washington view as retaliation for recent U.S. trade measures.

Investors fear the dispute could reignite a broader trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies — a prospect that rattled global equities and strengthened demand for assets traditionally viewed as stable stores of value.

The surge in gold also coincides with growing uncertainty in Washington, where a prolonged government shutdown has forced federal agencies to halt scheduled data releases. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the standoff could shave as much as $15 billion a week from U.S. economic output, compounding worries about fiscal instability.

Trump’s Diplomatic Moves Add to Market Crosscurrents

Amid these developments, President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit aimed at negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. The announcement came just a day before Trump was scheduled to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, signaling renewed U.S. diplomatic efforts even as global markets remain on edge.

While geopolitical optimism could normally cool safe-haven demand, investors appear unconvinced that any immediate breakthroughs are likely, keeping gold’s appeal intact.

Rate Cut Bets Reinforce Bullish Momentum

The rally in bullion is being further supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume monetary easing. Traders are now pricing in near-certainty of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, followed by another in December, with market-implied probabilities at 98% and 95% respectively.

Gold, which offers no yield, tends to perform strongly in low-interest-rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding the metal diminishes.

“Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary,” Vawda added. “Bullish investors are simply waiting for dips to re-enter positions.”

The dovish rate outlook comes amid persistent inflationary pressures and weakening U.S. growth indicators. However, with official data releases frozen by the government shutdown, traders have little clarity on near-term economic conditions — further enhancing gold’s allure as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Analysts Raise Forecasts as Gold’s Rally Reshapes Markets

HSBC on Wednesday raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce, citing a trifecta of safe-haven demand, global economic uncertainty, and a weaker U.S. dollar. The bank said sustained central bank buying — particularly from emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from the greenback — has added a long-term structural tailwind for gold prices.

Several central banks, including those of China, India, and Turkey, have steadily increased gold holdings over the past year as part of what analysts describe as a global trend toward “de-dollarisation.” The move reflects growing caution among emerging economies toward U.S. fiscal policy, sanctions risk, and mounting debt levels.

Silver and Other Precious Metals Follow the Surge

Silver, often seen as gold’s smaller sibling, also joined the rally. Spot silver rose 1.8% to $54.04 per ounce after reaching a record high of $54.15 earlier in the session. Analysts attribute the gains to both gold’s momentum and tightening supply conditions in the spot market.

Platinum climbed 3.2% to $1,706.65, while palladium rose 4.6% to $1,606.00, extending gains driven by investor rotation into hard assets amid fears of a broader economic slowdown.

The surge across the precious metals complex highlights a renewed investor preference for tangible assets in uncertain times. With equities under pressure and bond yields slipping, analysts say the move into gold and its peers is part of a wider realignment of portfolios toward inflation-resistant stores of value.

Outlook: $5,000 in Sight?

While analysts warn that profit-taking could trigger short-term volatility, the consensus remains that gold’s longer-term trajectory points higher. The convergence of geopolitical instability, fiscal strains in the United States, and dovish monetary policy has created what some describe as a “perfect storm” for gold.

With investor sentiment increasingly defensive and the global economy facing fresh fractures, gold’s unprecedented run may be far from over.

The European Union is exploring the introduction of new preconditions for Chinese companies seeking to invest in Europe, including mandatory technology and know-how transfers, in a move that signals a major shift in the bloc’s economic security posture.

The proposal, still under discussion, is part of a broader debate on how the EU should respond to Beijing’s expanding footprint in critical industries and technology supply chains.

At a meeting of EU trade ministers in Denmark on Tuesday, senior officials, including European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen, indicated that the bloc could no longer afford to remain passive in an era where economic power increasingly dictates geopolitical leverage. The talks, held under Denmark’s rotating presidency of the EU Council, come as the European Commission prepares to publish a comprehensive paper by year’s end outlining new principles for managing economic security and foreign investment risks.

Rasmussen, addressing a news conference after the meeting, said the EU had long operated under the assumption that open markets and adherence to international trade rules would deliver mutual benefit. However, he said the experience of recent years — particularly Europe’s growing dependence on Chinese inputs for green technologies, telecommunications, and critical minerals — had prompted a rethinking of that approach.

“If we invite Chinese investments to Europe, it must come with the precondition that we also have some kind of technology transfer. I don’t think we have completed that discussion, but we find ourselves in new circumstances,” Rasmussen said.

His comments echo growing sentiment across the bloc that Europe should take cues from both Washington and Beijing in balancing openness with strategic caution. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has pushed allies to adopt stronger measures against China’s industrial expansion, while Beijing itself has long made technology transfer a prerequisite for foreign companies operating in China.

The European Commission’s forthcoming economic security strategy is expected to recommend stricter scrutiny of inbound investments, especially in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, and renewable energy — industries viewed as strategic for Europe’s technological sovereignty.

For years, European businesses entering the Chinese market have been required to share proprietary technology or establish joint ventures with local firms as a condition for market access. While these practices helped China leapfrog in several high-tech sectors, European policymakers have increasingly viewed them as a form of coerced transfer that undermines the bloc’s competitiveness.

Commissioner Sefcovic told reporters that the EU continues to welcome foreign investment, including from China, but that these investments must be “real investments.” By this, he meant, the EU meant ventures that not only inject capital but also create jobs, transfer intellectual property, and strengthen Europe’s innovation capacity — “as European companies have been doing when they’ve been investing in China.”

Sefcovic confirmed that many ministers had raised the issue of reciprocity during the meeting, emphasizing the need for equal treatment.

The shift in tone from Brussels underscores how the bloc’s approach to economic relations with China is hardening, even as it stops short of adopting the confrontational stance seen in Washington. Over the past year, the European Commission has launched a series of investigations targeting Chinese subsidies in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar equipment, arguing that such state support distorts competition and threatens Europe’s industrial base.

In Beijing, the proposed move drew swift criticism. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Wednesday that China “opposes forced technology transfer and protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness.” He added that Beijing expected the EU to adhere to the principles of free trade and create a “non-discriminatory environment” for Chinese companies.

Analysts say the exchange reflects an emerging fault line between Europe’s economic openness and its growing security concerns. For much of the past two decades, the EU viewed China as both a vital trade partner and a competitor. That relationship has now evolved into what Brussels calls a “systemic rivalry,” particularly in the race for control over clean energy technologies, rare earths, and next-generation manufacturing.

The timing of the EU’s renewed scrutiny is notable. As the bloc races to accelerate its green and digital transitions, it remains heavily reliant on Chinese imports for key components such as batteries, solar panels, and electric vehicle parts. Policymakers fear that without safeguards, Europe could replicate the vulnerabilities exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, when supply chain disruptions left many industries paralyzed.

Rasmussen hinted that the EU’s evolving policy might take inspiration from the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, which ties subsidies for clean technologies to local content and domestic production.

Still, the proposed measures are likely to stir debate within the EU, where opinions diverge sharply over how to handle China. Germany and France, the bloc’s two largest economies, have both signaled support for stronger investment screening but are cautious about imposing blanket requirements that could deter capital inflows. Smaller states, including Denmark and the Netherlands, have argued for a more assertive approach to reduce strategic dependencies.

Sefcovic said the European Commission would now consolidate the ministers’ input and work toward translating the discussion into “concrete principles and proposals.” These would later be debated by member states before potential adoption in 2026.

While details remain sparse, the emerging framework could mark a turning point in Europe’s economic relationship with China. If implemented, it would represent the first time the EU explicitly ties foreign investment approvals to technology-sharing requirements — a reversal of decades of liberal trade orthodoxy.