Goldman Sachs entered the third quarter of 2025 with the kind of energy it hasn’t seen since before the pandemic. The world’s most storied investment bank, often seen as a barometer for global dealmaking, not only beat Wall Street’s profit expectations but also signaled a renewed confidence in the resilience of corporate America and the broader global economy.

The bank’s third-quarter profit surged to $4.1 billion, or $12.25 per share, well above analyst forecasts of $11, according to LSEG data. The rebound was powered by a remarkable 42% jump in investment banking fees to $2.66 billion, alongside steady growth in its wealth management arm and disciplined risk management across volatile markets.

Goldman’s Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon, summed it up in a statement that struck a tone of both caution and confidence.

“This quarter’s results reflect the strength of our client franchise and focus on executing our strategic priorities in an improved market environment,” he said. “We know that conditions can change quickly, and so we remain focused on strong risk management.”

Even so, the market’s initial response was subdued. According to Reuters, Goldman shares fell 4.7% in early trading, reflecting analyst concern that its trading segment underperformed expectations despite solid gains elsewhere. Still, the bank’s stock has surged 37% this year, buoyed by optimism that dealmaking — the lifeblood of Wall Street — is firmly back.

Dealmaking Resurgence and Billion-Dollar Mandates

At the heart of Goldman’s strong quarter was the revival of corporate dealmaking. After two sluggish years defined by high borrowing costs and inflation worries, chief executives have returned to the negotiating table. Global mergers and acquisitions volumes hit $3.43 trillion in the first nine months of the year, with nearly half originating in the United States, Dealogic data showed. That marks the most active period for M&A since 2015.

Goldman, true to form, dominated the league tables. The bank advised on more than $1 trillion in announced deals year-to-date, beating its next closest rival by $220 billion.

Among the standout transactions: Electronic Arts’ $55 billion sale to a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and major private equity groups; Holcim’s $26 billion spinoff of its North American business, Amrize; and Fifth Third Bancorp’s $10.9 billion acquisition of regional lender Comerica, which will form the ninth-largest U.S. bank.

Goldman’s CFO Denis Coleman confirmed that the firm’s deals backlog now sits at its highest level in three years, a clear sign that pipeline strength will carry through into 2026.

The bank also took center stage in the year’s biggest stock offerings, co-leading IPOs for design software firm Figma, Swedish fintech Klarna, and space technology company Firefly Aerospace. For a firm that built its reputation on advising blue-chip companies through complex transactions, this momentum marks a powerful return to form.

The AI Pivot: Goldman’s “OneGS 3.0” Overhaul

Beyond dealmaking, Goldman Sachs is betting heavily on artificial intelligence to redefine how it operates internally and serves clients externally.

In an internal memo titled “OneGS 3.0”, CEO David Solomon, President John Waldron, and CFO Denis Coleman outlined a plan to integrate AI across operations — from trading to compliance — while streamlining its workforce. The firm will limit hiring and conduct selective job cuts through the end of the year, focusing instead on using AI to boost productivity and reduce redundancy.

“The rapidly accelerating advancements in AI can unlock significant productivity gains for us,” the executives wrote, adding that Goldman intends to reinvest those savings into innovation and client service.

A spokesperson confirmed that despite the restructuring, the firm expects a net increase in headcount by year-end, underscoring that the AI push is about scaling smarter, not shrinking.

Asset and Wealth Management: The Stability Engine

While investment banking delivered flashier numbers, Goldman’s asset and wealth management division quietly posted one of its strongest quarters in years, with revenue up 17% to $4.4 billion.

The unit — a core part of Solomon’s strategy to create more stable, fee-based revenue — benefited from record-high management fees and strong private banking performance. Assets under supervision climbed to $3.45 trillion, up sharply as institutional clients and high-net-worth investors poured more money into Goldman’s funds and alternative investments.

Last month, the firm announced plans to acquire up to a $1 billion stake in T. Rowe Price, aiming to access its vast retirement fund ecosystem to channel more capital into private market opportunities.

By contrast, its provisions for credit losses fell slightly to $339 million, down from $397 million a year ago, mainly linked to its credit card portfolio. Goldman has been steadily exiting consumer lending after winding down its Marcus retail banking experiment.

Goldman’s trading business, historically one of its biggest profit engines, delivered mixed results in a quieter market.

Equities trading revenue rose 7% to $3.74 billion, lifted by strong financing activity but dampened by weaker returns in cash equities. Fixed income, currency, and commodities (FICC) trading performed better, climbing 17% to $3.47 billion as clients adjusted portfolios in response to shifts in U.S. trade and fiscal policies under President Donald Trump.

Traders, however, faced a new challenge: calm markets. The third quarter was one of Wall Street’s least volatile in six years, even as AI-fueled optimism and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut pushed stock indexes to record highs.

For the first time in years, Goldman executives are sounding upbeat about regulation. Solomon told analysts the Basel III “endgame” — the final iteration of global capital rules — is shaping up to be far more favorable to U.S. banks than once feared.

“We’re going to see a much more constructive Basel III endgame,” he said, predicting relief in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio by next summer, alongside more transparency in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) process.

An easier capital framework would free up billions of dollars, allowing Goldman and its peers to expand lending and buybacks without diluting capital cushions.

“The capital markets machine has clearly shifted into a higher gear,” said Stephen Biggar, a banking analyst at Argus Research. “With robust stock prices, a reduced regulatory burden, and the prospect of lower interest rates, the momentum looks sustainable.”

Goldman’s Return to Dominance

After several years of strategic rebalancing — winding down consumer banking, refocusing on institutional clients, and doubling down on asset management — Goldman Sachs appears to have found its footing again.

It has done so by returning to its roots: advising on the world’s biggest transactions, thriving in the capital markets, and positioning itself at the forefront of technology-driven change.

CEO Solomon, often criticized early in his tenure for spreading the bank too thin, now presides over an institution that has regained its Wall Street swagger — but one tempered by discipline and digital ambition.

Goldman’s third-quarter report, rich with signals of renewal, underscores the transformation. The bank has managed to capture the post-pandemic deal boom, harness AI for operational leverage, and navigate one of the most uncertain global economies in decades — all while keeping its identity intact.

For an institution once accused of losing its edge, Goldman Sachs now looks once again like the smartest bank on the Street — and one ready to prove it can dominate not only the next wave of deals but the next era of finance.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2 percent, an upward revision from its July projection of 3.2 percent.

The Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), released this week, attributes the improvement to stronger oil output, rising investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance expected to take hold over the next two years.

The updated projection places Nigeria ahead of South Africa, whose outlook remains subdued, but slightly below the broader Sub-Saharan African regional average. For 2025, Nigeria’s growth is projected to remain steady at 3.4 percent, consistent with the IMF’s July update, before accelerating to 4.2 percent in 2026.

According to the report, South Africa’s growth forecast was raised marginally from 1.0 to 1.1 percent for 2025 but revised downward from 1.3 to 1.2 percent for 2026. Meanwhile, the Sub-Saharan African region’s growth outlook improved slightly from 4.0 to 4.1 percent for 2025 and from 4.3 to 4.4 percent for 2026.

Domestic Factors Driving Nigeria’s Outlook

In explaining the basis for Nigeria’s stronger growth forecast, the IMF said the revision was driven by “supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance in 2026.” The Fund also noted that Nigeria remains relatively insulated from the impact of rising U.S. tariffs that are expected to dampen trade across other emerging economies.

The report stated: “Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape.”

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has recently seen modest gains in output following a series of interventions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and improved security in the Niger Delta region. The recovery in crude production — which rose above 1.5 million barrels per day in mid-2025, compared to about 1.2 million earlier in the year — has played a crucial role in strengthening fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows.

Economists say this rebound, combined with efforts to unify the exchange rate and attract foreign direct investment, is beginning to reflect renewed confidence in the economy. The IMF’s acknowledgment of these developments underscores optimism that Nigeria’s medium-term growth trajectory could stabilize, provided the government sustains its current reforms.

Global Economic Context

Globally, the IMF projects that growth will moderate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. While this marks a slight improvement from the July 2025 update, it remains 0.2 percentage points below forecasts made before the latest round of global trade and policy shifts. The Fund said the slowdown reflects persistent headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, although the impact of recent tariff measures was smaller than initially expected.

“This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update—but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, even though the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced,” the IMF explained.

Advanced economies are expected to expand by around 1.5 percent over 2025–2026, with the United States slowing to 2.0 percent. By contrast, emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4.0 percent during the same period.

Inflation and Trade Outlook

On inflation, the IMF forecasts a continued decline in global consumer prices to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.7 percent in 2026, compared to 5.8 percent in 2024. The Fund attributes the moderation to easing energy prices, improved food supply chains, and tighter monetary policies across major economies.

World trade volume, however, is expected to expand more slowly, at an average of 2.9 percent during 2025–2026 — below the 3.5 percent recorded in 2024 — as trade fragmentation and new tariff barriers continue to weigh on global commerce.

Nigeria’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy

The IMF’s upward revision comes months after its Executive Board concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria, projecting a 3.4 percent expansion in the country’s real GDP for 2025. The consultation report commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for maintaining a tight monetary policy stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the naira.

The Fund described the CBN’s policies as “critical tools in managing inflation and safeguarding macroeconomic stability,” but it also urged the government to complement monetary tightening with fiscal discipline and targeted social support programs to cushion the impact of reforms on vulnerable populations.

Nigeria’s inflation rate, which peaked at over 33 percent in early 2025, has since slowed on a month-on-month basis, although food and transportation costs remain high. The IMF noted that consistent fiscal and monetary coordination will be crucial to sustain the momentum of economic stabilization into 2026.

Economic analysts interpret the IMF’s upward revision as a sign that the country’s macroeconomic reforms are gradually restoring investor confidence, particularly in the oil and energy sectors. The IMF’s latest projection, nonetheless, signals a shift in perception — from caution to cautious optimism — as Nigeria continues to implement structural reforms.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that a wave of corporate bankruptcies emerging in the U.S. auto sector may be an early warning sign of broader credit excesses built up over the past decade.

Speaking after the collapse of two high-profile companies — auto parts maker First Brands and subprime car lender Tricolor Holdings — Dimon said the failures highlight how lenient lending practices since 2010 have left parts of the financial system exposed.

“We’ve had a credit bull market now for the better part of what, since 2010 or 2012? That’s like 14 years,” Dimon said during a call with CNBC on Tuesday. “These are early signs there might be some excess out there because of it. If we ever have a downturn, you’re going to see quite a bit more credit issues.”

His comments came as JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by assets, reported another quarter of strong earnings driven by its institutional trading business. Yet, despite topping Wall Street expectations, the bank’s results were overshadowed by growing concern among analysts and investors over credit quality and the potential ripple effects of recent corporate failures.

The twin bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor have reignited debate about risk appetite in the leveraged finance and private credit markets, particularly in sectors like automotive lending that expanded aggressively during the years of ultralow interest rates. Both companies had taken on significant debt before defaulting amid rising borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions that have plagued the global auto industry since the pandemic.

Dimon didn’t mince words in describing the significance of the failures. “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” he told veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo on the bank’s earnings conference call. “Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”

The remark underscored his long-standing reputation for caution regarding excessive credit creation — a concern that has intensified as U.S. consumer and corporate borrowing costs climb under the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance.

JPMorgan’s Exposure and Losses

While JPMorgan managed to avoid direct losses from First Brands, it was exposed to Tricolor Holdings, which filed for bankruptcy amid allegations of accounting irregularities and fraudulent loan practices. Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the bank took $170 million in charge-offs during the quarter linked to its Tricolor exposure. Charge-offs represent loans that the bank no longer expects to be repaid.

“It is not our finest moment,” Dimon admitted. “When something like that happens, you could assume that we scour every issue. You can never completely avoid these things, but the discipline is to look at it in cold light and go through every single little thing.”

Barnum added that the bank’s key credit metrics — including early-stage delinquencies — remain stable and, in some areas, better than expected. He emphasized that JPMorgan is closely monitoring the labor market, noting that any weakness there could eventually spill into consumer credit. So far, however, he said that deterioration has not materialized.

Ripple Effects Across Wall Street

The fallout from the two bankruptcies extends beyond JPMorgan. Several large financial institutions, including Jefferies, UBS, and Fifth Third Bank, have disclosed varying degrees of exposure to the failed companies.

Earlier this month, Jefferies revealed that funds it manages are owed $715 million by firms linked to First Brands’ inventory operations. UBS separately disclosed that its funds had approximately $500 million in exposure to similar entities. Meanwhile, regional lender Fifth Third Bank announced in September that it expects up to $200 million in impairments from alleged fraudulent activity at a borrower later identified as Tricolor Holdings, according to Bloomberg.

The combination of these losses has renewed concerns that many banks and private credit funds may have underestimated the risks tied to mid-market companies that thrived on cheap financing during the long post-2010 credit boom.

Tariffs and Supply Chain Strain Add Pressure

The situation has been further complicated by renewed trade frictions under President Donald Trump’s tariff escalation policies, which have increased costs across global supply chains. The automotive sector — dependent on complex international manufacturing networks — has been particularly affected. Parts shortages, shipping delays, and higher input costs have squeezed margins for both producers and lenders, many of whom relied on optimistic sales forecasts to justify high leverage.

The bankruptcy of First Brands, in particular, reflects how fragile these networks have become. The company, once a key supplier to several U.S. automakers, struggled with a combination of reduced demand, higher import costs, and tightening credit conditions. Analysts say that as tariffs push input prices higher, firms that were already operating on thin margins are likely to come under increasing strain.

Dimon’s warning carries added weight given JPMorgan’s central role in the global financial system and his reputation as one of Wall Street’s most experienced crisis-era executives. The bank chief has repeatedly cautioned against complacency amid strong profits and low default rates, arguing that the U.S. economy’s resilience has masked deeper structural risks.

The failures of First Brands and Tricolor, he suggested, are reminders that years of cheap money have allowed weaker companies to survive far longer than they might have otherwise. With interest rates now higher and refinancing more expensive, those vulnerabilities are starting to surface.