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JP Morgan Predicts Price of Bitcoin to Drop After Halving Event

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Leading global financial institution that offers solutions in investment and commercial banking, JP Morgan, has predicted that the price of Bitcoin will drop after the halving event.

The bank analysis of open interest in Bitcoin futures shows that the cryptocurrency is still considered overbought.

JP Morgan wrote via a research report,

“The price of Bitcoin is likely to weaken after the reward halving, a quadrennial event that slows the rate of growth in Bitcoin supply and looks set to occur around April 19-20”.

Furthermore, the price of Bitcoin is about $64,000, which is still above the bank’s volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, which sets it at $45,000, and its projected production cost of $42,000 after the halving. The bitcoin production cost has historically acted as a lower boundary for BTC prices.

JP Morgan also notes that venture capital funding remains subdued despite the recent crypto market resurgence. In line with JP Morgan’s prediction, investment banking company Goldman Sachs has also cautioned its clients from reading too much into the past halving cycles.

According to Goldman, BTC’s halving is a “psychological reminder to investors of BTC’s capped supply,” and the medium-term outlook depends on the uptake of the ETFs.

The bank said,

“Historically, the previous three halvings have been accompanied by BTC price appreciation after the halving, although the time it took to reach all-time highs differs significantly. Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,”

In contrast to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Bitcoin prediction, BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that the price of Bitcoin will go above the $100k Mark and even grow to the $750,000 value by 2026. Hayes had predicted in 2023 that the price of Bitcoin would trade around $25 – 30k, and in 2024 would surge to a new all-time high.

With the Bitcoin Halving event around the corner, the rewards for miners will be cut to create a new Bitcoin in half, from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin. Halving is an integral part of the Bitcoin blockchain system, which creates a monetary system that controls inflation. Halving happens every four years.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has started to retrace upward, moving towards the $70k price. With the price of Bitcoin trading at $63,893 as of the time of writing the report, the price of the crypto asset has continued to gain momentum.

According to CoinMarketCap the positive sentiment spread across the crypto sphere, lifting the global crypto market cap to $2.35 trillion, 4% higher than the previous day. The crypto community is currently watching closely as the halving event is only a few hours away.

As Kenya’s Marketforce Shuts Down RejaReja, Do Not Waste Efforts Starting Ecommerce Startups in Africa

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Kenya’s Marketforce shuts down the ecommerce unit, RejaReja. This business has raised more than $103 million. It follows old Konga, OLX, Kalahari, Mocality, and other big funded ecommerce companies which have folded in Africa: “YCombinator-backed Kenyan retail startup Marketforce has announced the shutdown of its e-commerce arm RejaReja. The company’s co-founder, Tesh Mbaabu, via a blog post, disclosed that the shutdown was due to struggles with profitability.”

In a seminal article in Harvard Business Review, I quoted Kalahari CEO as he closed the business: ‘In closing some of their e-commerce properties, Naspers, a media and internet empire, noted that it was a “sad day for e-commerce” in Africa and cited “unprofitability” as a reason.’ Yes, the same thing the Marketforce team is citing.

Structurally and without a postal service, it is a waste of time to start an ecommerce business in sub-Saharan Africa unless you have shops for pick ups. Companies like the new Konga will be fine (they have many pick up locations via sister companies under Leo Stan Ekeh empire), but others which do not have those physical networks will struggle to make money. 

From Kalahari to Mocality, OLX to old Konga and Jumia, the result will be the same: B2C ecommerce is a waste of time.

Jumia is going on because it has resources even though it continues to lose state-level budget as a loss: “African online retailer Jumia reported a loss of $98.6 million before tax from continuing operations in 2023, which is a 52% decrease from 2022.“ The “decrease” is partly because of currency “loss-gain” and exit from some markets.

The challenge is marginal cost paralysis which destroys value as you scale the business. In other words, you cannot compound and leverage anything because your unit economics does not improve as you expand the operations. When a company operates in that type of market, your success will simply destroy you, as an inflection point will NEVER arrive, for a positive marginal cost positioning.

I refer you back to secondary school on marginal revenue, marginal price, marginal profit and marginal cost. In ecommerce in Africa, you will expect to see marginal loss! Simply, it is hopeless without a postal system!

Kenyan Retail Startup Marketforce Shuts Down e-Commerce Arm RejaReja Over Profitability Struggles

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Y Combinator-backed Kenyan retail startup Marketforce has announced the shutdown of its e-commerce arm RejaReja.

The company’s co-founder, Tesh Mbaabu, via a blog post, disclosed that the shutdown was due to struggles with profitability.

He cited that before the shutdown of RejaReja,  the B2B distribution business became unsustainable for a few reasons such as funding challenges, the retail FMCG market having razor-thin margins, and being highly price elastic which was ravaged by consistent price wars.

He wrote,

“The B2B distribution business that was RejaReja became unsustainable for a few reasons. Firstly, the retail FMCG market has razor-thin margins, which means that at a unit level, we struggled with profitability. The segment is also highly price elastic, which means the price wars are consistent. That’s always a race to the bottom.

“After immense efforts to make our business model sustainable, including downsizing the business to extend the runway for as long as possible, we have concluded that it is no longer feasible to keep RejaReja operational.”

MarketForce’s deceleration started last year when some Venture Capitalist reneged on their Series A funding commitments, forcing the company to scale down operations and conduct multiple rounds of layoffs. The cash crunch came amidst the global venture capital downtime that has made raising funding hard.

This forced the company in October 2023, to discontinue the operations of its e-commerce platform RejaReja in four markets which include Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Tanzania, before its final shutdown this year.

Launched in 2020, RejaReja was built to empower one million merchants to harness the power and scale of the technology and realize their maximum potential by 2030. The company was trying to solve challenges that retailers face like stockouts, earnings instability, and lack of financing to scale their trade.

Moving ahead, rather than starting from scratch, the company has decided to join forces with founders that had built a business focused on a different kind of merchant, an online merchant selling a lot via social platforms.

The company is pivoting to “Chpter”, a social commerce startup that provides an AI-driven conversational platform tailored for business owners on WhatsApp and Instagram.

Chpter empowers businesses to unlock more revenue through the fastest-growing commerce channel, social media. It provides an AI-powered conversational commerce platform that enables merchants to sell more on social platforms like WhatsApp and Instagram by automating conversations, marketing, and payments all in one place.

MarketForce disclosed that they are building a product for merchants who want to grow their businesses and make money even while asleep and believe they can do that through the power of automation and artificial intelligence. 

Notably, Chpter is already live in Kenya and South Africa, powering hundreds of merchants and assisting them in seeing up to 5x revenue growth across their social channels due to the power of conversational commerce. 

Nigerian Government moves to overhaul the education sector

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President Bola Tinubu has taken a significant step towards revitalizing the Nigerian education sector by approving a comprehensive set of policies aimed at improving learning outcomes, increasing enrolment rates, and ensuring academic security across the country. 

In a press release, Ajuri Ngelale, the President’s spokesperson, emphasized the importance of these reforms in addressing the pressing challenges faced by the Nigerian education system.

The newly approved policies, collectively referred to as the “DOTS” framework, target four key areas:

  1. Data Repository: President Tinubu has given the green light for an extensive census to be conducted across all educational institutions, from primary to tertiary levels, encompassing schools, teachers, and students nationwide. Under the Data Repository initiative, data are required from (a) All schools in Nigeria from Primary to Tertiary level, their conditions and live-in facilities, proximity to one another, educational infrastructure, etc.

(b) All teachers in Nigeria, their qualifications, training support received, etc.

(c) All pupils and students in Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary institutions, gender, exam grades, etc.

The comprehensive data collected will serve as a foundation for informed decision-making and policy formulation, enabling targeted interventions and real-time monitoring at both the federal and local levels.

2. Out-of-School Children’s Education and Training: Building on existing efforts, the Federal Ministry of Education is actively implementing initiatives to address the challenge of out-of-school children. 

With approximately two million beneficiaries already benefiting from these interventions, the government aims to further expand its reach and ensure that every child has access to quality education and opportunities for personal development.

3. Teachers’ Development and Support: Recognizing the pivotal role of teachers in shaping the learning experience, the government plans to prioritize their development and support. This includes providing training in digital skills to facilitate the integration of technology in classrooms, thereby enhancing the quality of education and preparing students for success in the digital age.

4. Skill Development and Acquisition: President Tinubu has approved the establishment of a National Skills Framework designed to equip individuals with relevant skills tailored to the demands of the 21st-century global economy. 

It is believed that by addressing skill gaps and providing students with both specialized skills and foundational knowledge, the framework aims to enhance employability, foster economic growth, and reduce unemployment rates.

The implementation of these policies is expected to have a transformative impact on the Nigerian education system, paving the way for improved learning outcomes, increased enrolment rates, and greater opportunities for personal and professional development. 

By connecting the “DOTS” – Data, Out-of-School Children’s Education, Teacher Training, and Skill Development – President Tinubu is said to be demonstrating his commitment to building a brighter future for the youth of Nigeria.

This move is coming weeks after the president assented to the reenacted Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) bill, which has been hailed by many as a game changer in Nigeria’s educational system. 

According to Mr. Akintunde Sawyerr, the Managing Director of NELFUND, accessing student loans under the revised act will require candidates to provide their Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) registration number, National Identification Number (NIN), and Bank Verification Number (BVN). These stringent requirements aim to ensure transparency and accountability in the loan disbursement process.

Speaking during an interactive session with members of the Education Writers Association of Nigeria (EWAN) in Lagos, Sawyerr revealed that approximately 1.2 million Nigerian students in tertiary institutions and government-recognized skill acquisition centers are slated to be among the first beneficiaries of the loan scheme. 

The funds allocated for the program, equivalent to one percent of the revenue generated annually by the Federal Inland Revenue Service, underscore the government’s commitment to investing in education and human capital development, according to Sawyerr. 

Elaborating on the loan disbursement process, Sawyerr outlined a two-step approach. Firstly, the allocated funds for school fees will be disbursed directly to the institution on behalf of the student, ensuring seamless payment and enrollment. Secondly, a stipend will be deposited directly into the student’s bank account, providing financial support to cover additional expenses related to their education.

Sawyerr explained that financially disadvantaged undergraduates seeking assistance for their education are encouraged to apply through the designated website, where they will be required to submit their matriculation details for verification. 

Importantly, beneficiaries will be expected to commence loan repayment upon securing employment or establishing businesses, ensuring sustainability and the continued circulation of funds within the education sector.

The implementation of these progressive education policies, coupled with the revamped NELFUND loan scheme, is seen as part of a concerted effort by the government to address the myriad challenges facing the education sector. 

These follow calls on the government to unlock the full potential of its youth and pave the way for a brighter future for all by prioritizing access to education and providing financial support to students in need. 

Very Commendable on Nigeria’s Move to Scrap or Merge Departments and Agencies

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If this was indeed DONE, not just announced, I want to commend the government for it. Yes, Nigeria is scrapping/merging many dead/weak agencies and departments, including NTA, FRCN, ICPC, NCDC, NCC, etc. This is the right move and the government should stay the course and conclude it.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has made a bold move to merge, relocate, and scrap several agencies, including FRCN, ICPC, NCDC, NCC, and NTA, among others, aiming to cut the cost of governance and streamline operations. Notable changes include the merging of FRCN and VON, NACA and NCDC, and the relocation of NALDA to FMARD. The Public Complaints Commission has been merged with the NHRC, while BCDA is now a department in NBC.

In Abia State, Governor Otti scrapped 10 ministries, saved enormous amounts of money, and without borrowing for pension debts,  paid 10 years of accumulated pensions. Yes, little efficiency here and there could make funds available for important things.

The US federal government has 15 executive departments, each led by a secretary: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, Justice, and Veterans Affairs. 

In other words, the US has only 15 ministers, and those 15 people run the world’s largest economy. They do not even have a sports ministry, science & tech ministry, and many of the usuals in our land. Those things fall under departments or agencies.

Finally, the government has to invest and retrain anyone who is made redundant as a result of this policy. Give them at least 6 months of professional development training, in partnership with some of the federal universities, and find new areas they could be needed. But if nothing is available, do not force it, as those new skills should help them find new opportunities outside government.