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Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023 – US Inflation Data

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The recent surge in US inflation has raised concerns about the future value of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% in November from a year ago, the highest annual increase since 1982. The CPI measures the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by consumers.

Bitcoin, which is often touted as a hedge against inflation, has not performed well in the face of rising prices. The digital currency has lost more than 30% of its value since reaching an all-time high of nearly $69K in November 2021. As of December 15, Bitcoin was trading at around $47K, according to CoinMarketCap.

One of the main reasons why Bitcoin is struggling to keep up with inflation is the lack of adoption by mainstream investors and institutions. Despite the growing interest and awareness of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin still faces significant barriers to entry, such as regulatory uncertainty, security risks, volatility and scalability issues. Moreover, Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million coins may not be enough to meet the growing demand for alternative assets in an inflationary environment.

According to a recent report by Bloomberg Intelligence, Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023 if the current trend of high inflation and low adoption continues. The report argues that Bitcoin’s value is mainly driven by speculation and sentiment, rather than fundamentals and utility. Therefore, Bitcoin could face a prolonged bear market if investors lose confidence and interest in the cryptocurrency.

However, not everyone is pessimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could benefit from the inflationary pressures in the long term, as more people seek to preserve their purchasing power and diversify their portfolios. For instance, Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm that holds over 120K bitcoins, said that Bitcoin is “the ultimate inflation hedge” and that he expects it to reach $1 million per coin in the future.

Ultimately, the value of Bitcoin depends on a number of factors, such as supply and demand, innovation, regulation and competition. While US inflation data may have a negative impact on Bitcoin’s price in the short term, it may also create new opportunities and challenges for the cryptocurrency industry in the long term.

Another factor that could influence Bitcoin’s value is how it compares to other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the oldest and most dominant cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization and network effects. However, it also faces competition from newer and more innovative projects that offer different features and advantages. For example, Ethereum is a platform that enables smart contracts and decentralized applications, while Cardano is a blockchain that aims to provide scalability and sustainability. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, Ripple and Dogecoin, have different use cases and target audiences.

The performance and popularity of these alternative cryptocurrencies could affect Bitcoin’s market share and price. If some of them manage to surpass Bitcoin in terms of adoption, innovation or regulation, they could pose a serious threat to Bitcoin’s dominance and value. On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to maintain its leadership and improve its technology and usability, it could benefit from the growth and development of the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Right Now, Another Decision is Coming: Trump vs Biden for US Presidency

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Obama invented one special thing during his presidency: allowing affordable homes in rich American neighbourhoods. To appreciate that policy, you need to understand that where you live determines the public school you attend, and that public school is largely funded from real estate tax in that community. So, naturally, affluent communities have better schools because they generate more tax money, to hire the best teachers and spend on school supplies.

That is the separation which comes after birth: if you are born in poor communities, your schools are likely going to be underperforming. Obama changed that by allowing apartments and all manners of affordable homes to be built in rich suburbs and communities. With that, a poor kid whose parents live on minimum wage, can live in the same zip code with millionaires, and those kids can attend the same school with millionaires’ kids (sure, most rich Americans send their kids to private schools). You get the idea nonetheless!

Trump liked that idea, but in the middle of his presidency, he flipped. Politico wrote,  “Trump is going to war on low-income housing in suburbs. He once embraced it.” The issue was alleged that “poor” families were making the suburbs “untidy”, “unsafe”, and President Trump wanted to save the “suburb women of America” from this paralysis. Politico again: “President Donald Trump is on a mission to save the suburbs, warning Americans that Joe Biden would bring chaos to their communities by promoting affordable housing.”

On that, and the issue of affirmative action, I decided to vote for Biden to preserve that ordinance (suburban women voted for Biden as  many Americans pushed for more opportunities for all). Ifeoma, my wife, did ask for voting Biden to be the best birthday gift from me, as I was ambivalent since irrespective who the president is, the institutions of America, will keep it going.

But right now, another decision is coming: Trump vs Biden for US Presidency. What should we look for as the campaign reason ramps up? 

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: Biden has been tested likewise Trump.

There’s no more blind choice here, during Trump the world knows peace and prosperity while during Biden the world is at war and in much disarray.

Children and our kids are endangered species, they are under attack and their innocence is being stolen from them.

For me I think the world needs healing and reformatting and Trump might be that button to commence the process.

Comment 2: Hi Prof. How did you vote in the last election in Nigeria? What was the main issue that swayed how you voted?

My Response: I did not vote because I was not registerred to vote. But largely, if I had been given the opportunity, any person that would enshrine a MERIT-based system in admission, employment, etc (I think is the #1 issue in Nigeria) gets it. Among the contenders, I would have voted Obi.

In 1999, I liked Obasanjo (a bridge to 2 worlds) . In 2007, I was for Yar’Adua (humility with empathy to Niger Delta during his campaign. He later won and voted for the largest budget in the history of ND which even GEJ reduced when he died). In 2011, I was for GEJ (I wanted him to continue the Yar’Adua policy which was superb, Nigeria had the highest GDP per capita on record). In 2015, I was for GEJ (I felt that Buhari did not have the intellectual capacity to run Nigeria). In 2019, I was for Atiku (anything but Buhari).

Comment 3: You made a brilliant point sir. But I think that is too little to make a choice of who is to be the president of the USA.

You are a very learned person because I follow you on both LinkedIn and Facebook.

I strongly disagree on this!

President Obama did brilliantly well in that policy but you and I know such policy did not and can not give automatic place to the poor in the suburbs. I believe even with that it is still going to be by merit.

Even with the policy I believe not all poor people can afford it except those who work themselves up.

I read most of your write up whenever I come across them.

I want to ask you a question,imagine Tinubu makes such policies for Nigeria willl he be your choice over Obi?

Allow the poor to access rich suburbs over economy policies? Over foreign policies ? For example, Trump have been saying if he was in office Ukraine war would not have started. He also said if in office he will end it in a short while.

We believe him because in his 4years in office no war. Obama’s govt Russia annexed kremia, Biden Russia at war with Ukraine again, also with Libya saga, leaving Afghanistan in an unprofessional way etc.

Both have ruled for 4years compare their foreign policies and the economy.

My Response: “I want to ask you a question,imagine Tinubu makes such policies for Nigeria willl he be your choice over Obi? ” Not relevant from my angle because that policy is not the most pressing factor in Nigeria. What is #1 issue for me in Nigeria is MERIT (i.e. who can enhrine a merit-based system in the nation on unemployment, admission, etc). If a lizard makes it, I will vote him/her/it over any human.

Comment 3R: Great! I believe your merit is going to be based primarily on economy, security and foreign policy beside others. If you use same parameters for USA you will discover Biden does not have a chance. I think this is very obvious sir.

My Response: As I noted, I am ambivalent to who runs America because they have institutions which cannot be broken by anyone. The Merit in my response is not who merits it, but who can reform Nigeria to be run on merits so that people can give their best at all times. The yardstick to determine who runs America is different for me for who runs Nigeria. Nigeria does not have a merit-based system, and until you fix that, nothing will work.

Network Yourself into a Productive System Because only Humans, NOT work, Recommend People.

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How many productive people have you connected with in the last 8 months of this year? Understand that to rise to the next level, you must deepen your capacity to connect with people closer to decision centers. Politicians keep recycling the usuals because those are the ones who are always around them. Yes, only the visible get rewarded most of the time. In the corporate world, it is the same thing: you need to be visible for someone to mention and recommend you in your absence!

In other words, your job performance cannot recommend you because jobs/performance do not talk. Only humans recommend people, and that means people need to know you, even as you do a great job.

Check carefully, from MTN to Zenith Bank to Dangote Cement, and beyond, most of the senior jobs are not advertised in any newspaper in Nigeria. But weekly and monthly, those positions are being filled. How? A networked system where the visible are tabulated, and seasonally checked, to see if they are open for opportunities, exist.

“Please who can run this new business for us”, the Chairman asked. Names will begin to fly. “Let’s call our recruitment consultant to check if s/he is available”, he responded.

Good People, #network yourself into a #productive system because only humans, NOT work, recommend people.

ARK Invest and 21Shares jointly Apply for Ethereum and Bitcoin Futures ETFs

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In a major development for the crypto industry, two leading investment firms have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that would track the performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin futures contracts.

ARK Invest, founded by Cathie Wood, and 21Shares, a Swiss-based crypto asset manager, have partnered to create the ARK 21Shares Ethereum Trust and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust, according to their filings on August 25.

The proposed ETFs would offer investors exposure to the price movements of ETH and BTC futures contracts traded on regulated exchanges, without the need to hold or store the underlying cryptocurrencies. The ETFs would also seek to minimize the tracking error between the market price of their shares and the net asset value (NAV) of their portfolios.

The filings come as the SEC is reviewing several applications for Bitcoin ETFs, which have been pending for years. The regulator has repeatedly delayed or rejected such proposals, citing concerns over market manipulation, custody, liquidity, and investor protection. However, some analysts believe that the SEC may be more receptive to futures-based ETFs than those that directly hold cryptocurrencies, as futures are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and trade on established platforms such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

The ARK Invest and 21Shares filings also indicate that they have secured the services of several reputable firms to support their ETFs. The Bank of New York Mellon would act as the administrator, transfer agent, and custodian of the trusts, while Coinbase Custody Trust Company would serve as the sub-custodian. Cboe BZX Exchange would be the listing exchange for the ETFs, while Jane Street Capital would be the authorized participant and market maker.

The partnership aims to address some of the regulatory hurdles that have prevented the SEC from approving a crypto ETF so far. By using futures contracts instead of holding physical cryptocurrencies, the ETFs would avoid the issues of custody, market manipulation, and liquidity that have been raised by the SEC in the past. Moreover, by collaborating with Cboe, a well-established exchange that has experience in listing Bitcoin futures products, the ETFs would benefit from a robust market infrastructure and surveillance.

Both ARK Invest and 21Shares have a track record of innovation and expertise in the crypto space. ARK Invest is known for its actively managed ETFs that focus on disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and blockchain. The firm has been an early and vocal supporter of Bitcoin, and holds a significant stake in Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange. 21Shares, formerly known as Amun, is a pioneer in issuing crypto ETPs (exchange-traded products) in Europe, with over $1.5 billion in assets under management across 14 products.

If approved by the SEC, the ARK 21Shares Ethereum Trust and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust would be among the first crypto ETFs to launch in the U.S., potentially opening up a new avenue for institutional and retail investors to access the burgeoning crypto market. The ETFs would also compete with similar products that are already available in other jurisdictions, such as Canada, Europe, and Asia. The success of these ETFs would depend on several factors, such as their fees, liquidity, tracking accuracy, and regulatory compliance.

The ARK Invest and 21Shares applications come at a time when the demand for crypto exposure is growing among investors, both retail and institutional. A crypto ETF would provide a convenient and cost-effective way for investors to access the crypto market without having to deal with the technicalities and risks of buying and storing cryptocurrencies directly. A crypto ETF would also boost the legitimacy and adoption of cryptocurrencies as a new asset class.

The SEC has yet to approve any crypto ETF in the US, despite receiving dozens of applications from various issuers. The regulator has repeatedly delayed its decisions on several proposals, citing concerns over investor protection and market integrity. However, there are signs that the SEC may be warming up to the idea of a crypto ETF, especially after its new chairman, Gary Gensler, indicated that he would be more open to a futures-based product than a spot-based one.

The joint venture between ARK Invest and 21Shares is a strategic move that leverages the expertise and reputation of both firms in the crypto space. ARK Invest is known for its bullish outlook on disruptive technologies, including cryptocurrencies, and has been one of the largest institutional investors in Coinbase, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and other crypto-related companies. 21Shares is a pioneer in issuing crypto ETPs in Europe, with over $1.5 billion in assets under management across 14 products.

Financial Service Company Affirm, Reports Strong Fiscal Fourth-Quarter 2023 Results

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Affirm, a payment network that allows users to shop online or in-store and pay overtime with flexible payments and low APR, reported strong fiscal fourth quarter 2023 results, exceeding its outlook across all key metrics.

The company delivered a strong quarter after it reported a revenue growth of 22% year-over-year to $446 million, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $406 million.

It reported a gross merchandise volume of $5.5 billion, an increase of 25% year over year, and higher than the $5.3 billion expected by analysts.

Affirm posted a net loss of $206 million, or 69 cents a share, compared to a net loss of $186.4 million, or 65 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

The company reported an operating income loss of $244 million, compared to $277 million in FQ4’222 operating Income loss as a percentage of revenue, or operating margin, was 55% in the period, compared to 76% during FQ4’22.

Buy now, pay later payment services such as Affirm, soared during the pandemic alongside a boost in online shopping. However, the company has been contending with a worsening economic environment, as well as rapidly rising interest rates.

Affirm’s finance Chief Michael Linford said in a statement,

“Despite significant changes in interest rates and consumer demand, we still delivered good credit results, unit economics, and GMV growth. We also demonstrated that the business can continue to expand profitably even in a high-interest rate environment.”

The primary drivers of the improvement in Operating Income Loss were a reduction in sales and Marketing and General and Administrative expenses, in part due to the restructuring that was announced in mid-February this year.

Affirm’s Active merchant count grew 8% year-over-year to 254,000 merchants, and merchants with $1,000 in trailing twelve-month GMV grew 16% year-over-year to 96,000. The company continued to see good traction onboarding long-tail merchants through certain platform partnerships, with its Stripe partnership being a notable highlight.

The active consumer count grew 18% year-over-year to 165 million. Transactions per active consumer grew 30% year-over-year, or 29%, to 3.9 compared to 30 during FQ4’22.

Affirm Marketplace, which is a subsidiary under the company’s Direct-to-consumer (D2C) businesses, generated approximately $5 billion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), in FY’23 and accounted for more than 95% of total D2C GMV during the period.

Overall, Affirm’s D2C business accounted for approximately 25% of its GMV in FY’23, with about 2 million of its consumers using one of its D2C products.

Speaking on the overall performance of Affirm Fiscal Fourth-Quarter 2023 Results, the company’s CEO and Founder Max Levchin said,

“FY”23 was quite a test, and I am very proud of how the team delivered for our shareholders, capital partners, merchants, and consumers. Macroeconomic headwinds persist and more challenges are certain to come, but I think we have proven that Affirm has the talent and the grit to take them on”.

Responsive to whatever the short term brings, CEO Levchin revealed that the company will remain focused on the long-term goals of the business which include;

  • Offer responsible access to credit for consumers, while maintaining excellent credit quality.
  • Deliver best-in-class value for merchants and platform partners.
  • Grow the Affirm network in both reach and frequency and do it profitably.
  • Continue to invent and scale new products.

Affirm has disclosed that the company is now focused on serving consumers wherever they transact. Its goal is accelerating transaction frequency while profitably expanding merchant and consumer reach.

The company disclosed that it expects to achieve a full-year profitability, on an Adjusted Operating Income basis, in FY’24.