The Republic of Angola’s abrupt departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) marks a decisive turn in the group’s unity, raising concerns and signaling a growing rift within the coalition of oil-producing nations.

The move announced following a cabinet meeting on Thursday, lays bare a deepening conflict between Angola and OPEC, exposing underlying tensions over output limits that failed to accommodate Angola’s diminishing oil production capacities.

Minister of Mineral Resources, Diamantino Azevedo, voiced Angola’s disillusionment with OPEC, stating, “Our role in the organization was not deemed relevant… it no longer makes sense for us to remain in the organization.”

This rupture evolved from a deal in June, which allocated a higher production target to the United Arab Emirates, compelling Angola to accept a reduced output limit for 2024, per Bloomberg.

Angola’s oil capacity has plummeted by nearly 40% over eight years to approximately 1.14 million barrels a day, accentuated by insufficient investments in aging, deepwater oil fields, according to data from Bloomberg. However, the quota debacle intensified when OPEC, following a delayed ministerial meeting, imposed an even more stringent production cap of 1.1 million barrels a day, exacerbating the already strained relations between Angola and the organization, Bloomberg reported.

This situation significantly reduced the country’s production below the target agreed with its OPEC counterparts, contributing largely to the dispute.

While Angola’s decision to exceed the imposed quota may be symbolic due to its dwindling output, it underscores the breakdown in relations between the country and OPEC. Industry analysts speculate that this move might not significantly impact global oil supplies since Angola was already operating near full capacity, disregarding OPEC+ quotas.

There’s “no impact on supply forecasts as Angola is already producing at full capacity rather than limiting output due to OPEC+ quotas,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. It “doesn’t directly impact quotas or production plans for other OPEC+ countries.”

This dissent, previously expressed in private by other members, indicates a growing discord within the cartel’s leadership, potentially posing future challenges.

However, Javier Blas, a Bloomberg analyst said while Angola’s exit mirrors the limited impact of previous departures – Indonesia, Qatar, and Ecuador, it signals some troubling developments for OPEC.

“The announcement, with the government in Luanda openly expressing its frustration with the cartel, sheds some light on an open secret: Lots of OPEC member countries are less than happy about the direction the group has taken over the last few years under the leadership of Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Blas noted that the bone of contention, which has been expressed always in private by other members of the oil cartel, is that Riyadh is trying to keep oil prices too high, close to $100-a-barrel, which is propping up rivals, notably the US shale industry.

If OPEC continues doing so, he said, sooner or later it would have to cut production even more, ceding more market share. Other OPEC members would be happy with oil prices lower, in the $60-to-$70 range, he added.

This complaint is accompanied by another one: Riyadh, under its Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, appears unresponsive to the concerns raised by others and is seemingly attempting to coerce dissenting views into submission.

“The departure of Angola makes it more likely that Riyadh will have to let the UAE to produce, over time, even more oil. The risks for OPEC start in Luanda — but ultimately end more dangerously in Abu Dhabi,” Blas noted.

As tensions escalate, Angola’s departure could foreshadow a more tumultuous path ahead for OPEC, triggering uncertainties in the global oil market.

In a decisive ruling, the Supreme Court on Friday affirmed the election victory of Governor Peter Mbah in Enugu State, dismissing the appeal filed by the Labour Party (LP) and its candidate, Chijioke Edeoga.

The apex court upheld the unanimous decision by a five-man panel of Justices led by Justice Mohammed Garba, affirming the validity of Governor Mbah’s election.

The LP and Edeoga’s appeal sought to challenge the outcome of the gubernatorial election that took place on March 18. However, the Supreme Court found no grounds to overturn the concurrent verdicts of the Enugu State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal and the Court of Appeal in Lagos, which had dismissed all allegations against Governor Mbah of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Addressing the issues raised in the appeal, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Governor Mbah and the PDP, further reinforcing the earlier decisions made by lower courts.

Justice Garba held that the three witnesses presented by the appellants regarding their matter were identified as petitioners’ witnesses (PWs) one, two, and three. These individuals were among those whose written statements, given under oath, were deemed inadmissible as they had not been submitted alongside the initial petition.

“The evidence of PW 1, 2, and 3 is where the issue of non-qualification was based. The evidence having been expunged for being legally inadmissible, there is no evidence to support that allegation of forgery of certificate

“The allegation, as contained in paragraphs 24 and 25 of the petition is not supported by valid evidence. There is no merit in this issue,” he said

The Court of Appeal in Lagos had previously upheld Governor Mbah’s election, dismissing three critical issues raised by the LP and Edeoga. Specifically, the court stated that the appellants failed to substantiate their claim that Governor Mbah was unqualified to contest the election. Despite alleging over-voting in Mbah’s strongholds, the appellants failed to provide the voters’ register as evidence.

In the appellate court’s unanimous judgment, it was concluded that the LP and its candidate did not present sufficient grounds to nullify the Enugu State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal’s initial ruling, which had dismissed their case. Consequently, the appeal was deemed lacking in merit, affirming Governor Mbah’s victory.

Following their dissatisfaction with the appellate court’s judgment, Edeoga and the LP escalated the matter to the Supreme Court, where they faced another defeat on Friday.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had previously declared Mbah of the PDP as the winner of the gubernatorial contest after securing 160,895 votes. Edeoga of the LP trailed with 157,552 votes, while Frank Nweke of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) secured 17,983 votes, coming in third.

The LP and its candidate contested the election results, claiming they had secured the highest number of valid votes. They also alleged that Governor Mbah submitted a forged National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) Certificate to INEC, challenging his eligibility.

In addition to other observations, the court noted that the appellants, initially petitioners at the tribunal, presented eyewitnesses purportedly serving as polling unit and collation agents. However, during cross-examination, these witnesses confessed that they were not lawfully appointed to hold those roles as stipulated by relevant legal provisions.

Furthermore, the judge highlighted that the statements provided by these witnesses were nearly identical, differing only in names. Consequently, such evidence was deemed inadmissible and held no substantial value in the case.

“PW26 was the appellant state collation agent, he gave hearsay evidence because he was not at the ward collation centers for him to give admissible evidence of all that happened at all the ward collation centers.

“The tribunal was right to have held that the petitioner failed to prove with evidence that the second respondent (Mbah) was not elected with a majority of valid votes cast in the election.

“I have no reason to interfere with the concurrent findings of the two lower courts on the issue,” he said.

Based on these, the Enugu State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal dismissed these allegations on September 9, affirming that Governor Mbah met the necessary qualifications for the election, including possessing a valid school certificate or its equivalent. The tribunal also highlighted the need for criminal allegations like forgery to be proven beyond reasonable doubt, rejecting certain witness testimonies for not being filed with the petition.

Mba welcomed the judgment, describing it as “a nudge to continue to provide water in every nook and cranny of Enugu State; to build smart schools in all the wards of our state; to sustain the provision of security; to provide massive infrastructure and roads development; to build a new set of leaders of tomorrow who will face the global challenges headlong.”

My dear people of Enugu State. A while ago, the Supreme Court, the highest court in the land, delivered the final judgement on the last tranche of appeals against the mandate you freely gave us on March 18, 2023.

We thank God that the learned justices affirmed your sacred will.… pic.twitter.com/rEqlK4Hjk5

— Peter Ndubuisi Mbah (@PNMbah) December 22, 2023