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Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics’ 4.1% Unemployment Rate Doesn’t Make Sense – Yemi Kale

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Dr. Yemi Kale, who previously served as the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has expressed his concerns about the methodology employed to calculate Nigeria’s weekly unemployment rate.

His concern follows an avalanche of criticism on the new methodology applied by the NBS in its latest unemployment rate report, which reduced the employment time from 20 hours to just one hour.

The bureau released its report last week, reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent from 33.1%. The drastic reduction, which comes after about three years of no unemployment report from the NBS, has generated a lot of controversy. The 33.1% unemployment rate was recorded in 2020 under Kale.

In its latest report, the NBS said that “unemployment stood at 5.3 percent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 percent in Q1 2023.” The bureau explained that the methodology that yielded those figures has been applicable in other developing countries – “where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.”

But like several other experts who have voiced their concern about the methodology adopted by the NBS, Kale said it would deceive policymakers. Kale, who now serves as Chief Economist at KPMG Nigeria, said he resisted the urge to change the country’s unemployment data-gathering methodology during his time as head of the NBS.

The KPMG chief, who during his time as the NBS head, revealed that was under pressure from the government to publish incorrect figures, spoke on Monday during an interview on Arise Television’s Global Business Report.

He stated that the committee responsible for reassessing the minimum count of work hours for classification as employed believed that attributing just one hour per week did not hold merit, as the income earned during such a short duration might not be sufficient for sustenance.

“I resisted (to change the model for unemployment methodology) for 10 years because it did not make any sense in terms of providing the information that our policymakers need.

“So the 20 hours was set because the committee that was set up, which included the ILO, presented their findings and they decided that one hour did not make sense because the income you will generate on an average from one hour’s work was not going to work.

“The 20 hours was decided on because it was agreed that if you work for that duration, you might be able to generate enough income that might sort of equate to what working one hour in the US is. Then you have a bit more comparison.

“If the policy and data are to match, policymakers need to come out to say that all they are promising Nigerians is one hour of employment, then the methodology works. But if the methodology is focused on one hour and policymakers are trying to look for full-time employment, the data won’t help them. And is only there for textbooks, researchers, and international comparison, and there is nothing wrong with that.

“But policymakers can’t use it, and I must repeat that the most important use of data is to provide information for policy not for international comparison,” he said.

Going by Nigeria’s monthly minimum wage of N30,000, an hourly wage will yield less than N100. This, experts believe, makes the 4.1% unemployment rate figure published by the NBS unrealistic, as the value of the earning doesn’t cover any household need.

Which is Better: Hiring a web Designer or Using a Website Builder?

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In today’s world, the internet is an inseparable part of our life, that is a fact and there is no denying it. Now, in light of this statement, it is obvious that having your website, be it a commercial website or a personal blog, is of paramount importance Internet can be considered analogous to a marketplace and a website a store, so the need of a website need not be stated more.

You can acquire a website in two ways:

1) Build it Yourself, 2) Hire someone to build it for you.

For non-design Professionals, a web builder kit is a very effective and necessary tool in creating a website. A web builder kit is a very versatile tool that has multiple modules and templates that have “drag and paste” features enabling you to create your website without having to learn to code.

A website designer is an IT professional that creates a visually appealing, creative, and fully functional website. Their many skills include the creation and maintenance of a website, interface design, search engine optimization, and designing an intuitive user experience. They just don’t make a website, what a good web designer does can be considered modern art.

Remember having an outstanding website is not the central objective. It certainly helps in achieving it but is still a secondary or tertiary priority. A compelling product or service is needed irrespective of if it is hosted by a dazzling custom-made website or on a simplistic self-made website.

So, you have decided that you need a website. As stated above, you can either make your websites or hire Professional web Designers. Each of these options has its advantages and disadvantages that can make that particular option non-viable to you.

So, what to choose? Well, here is how it works:

Hiring a web designer is the premium option for acquiring a website. They will understand your vision and bring it to life.

Web designers have a human element that is absent in Web building tools and thus is more versatile and malleable to your needs.

The attention to detail, consistent updates and improvements, and a customized website that stands above and beyond your competitions are a few advantages of hiring a web designer.

Now, in comparison to hiring a web designer that will cost thousands of dollars and will take months to be made, using web building tools is an inexpensive and relatively time-saving option.

A new and upcoming business with a new and yet unproven concept is suited more for web building tools rather than a custom website.

For a hobbyist or a blogger, a web-building tool is an optimal solution for creating a website. If your blog catches on or your audience grows, you can always make a custom website later.

At the end of the day, it comes down to costs and expenses. Ask yourself, is a custom website worth your time and investment? Do you lose money not having a custom website while your competitors do? Do you even need a custom website? Can you make a suitable website on your own? Can a self-made website fulfill your needs?

Your answer to these questions will determine whether you should go for a custom website or make one yourself. More so, there are many digital services where you can pick some great templates to improve your design.  We are in the digital age and having a solid online presence is very strategic and catalytic for any mission.

Beyond TAX, VAT and Fees in Nigeria, Governments Must Create TRUST In the Nation

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Nigeria has a great playbook on taxation innovation. Where we have issues are in growth innovation. Yet, this VAT is not a bad: “The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has said that a 7.5 percent value added tax (VAT) will be charged on radio and television masts, transmission lines, cell towers, mobile homes, caravans, and trailers, from September 1, 2023.

But for all, this my #1 rule: people willingly pay tax because tax is working in their lives just as people willingly pay insurance because insurance saves their future. Nigeria needs to return to the age of TRUST.  Yes, in the past, men and women willingly contributed money, and sent it to the government, to advance society, because they trusted governments.

Then, Chief Sam Mbakwe (former governor of Imo State) would appear on IBC (Imo Broadcasting Corporation) Owerri with a piece of paper, explaining the state’s liabilities and why he needed more funds. The next day, Peoples Club, etc would call emergency meetings, to raise funds to close the loopholes.

My grandmother was a big fan of Mbakwe because the man came to build a power plant in Isuikwuato. When the governor asked for some help, she gave me 25 kobo to give to my headmaster. If you studied during Mbakwe time, it was common in old Imo State. People donated to the state government, willingly. That used to be Nigeria!

Peoples Club: do you still send money to any modern governor in Nigeria? People, Nigeria’s problem is that the citizens do not TRUST governments at all levels and that is why people hate these new taxes, fees, VAT, etc. We MUST reverse that trajectory to advance the nation.

TAX and Tech

In the US, they’re deploying AI to help improve tax collection.

The Internal Revenue Service is planning to use artificial intelligence to investigate possible tax evasion by large hedge funds, real estate investors and private equity groups. The initiative taps part of an $80 billion allocation from last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel says AI will help the agency identify previously unseen patterns and trends suggesting potential tax evasion schemes and be used to help audit 75 of the largest partnerships in the U.S. by the end of the month. The partnerships each have more than $10 billion in assets. The IRS will send notifications to 500 other large partnerships in October warning of possible audits.

Nigerians to Pay VAT on Radio/TV Masts, Cell Towers, Mobile Homes & Trailers from Sept. 1

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has said that a 7.5 percent value added tax (VAT) will be charged on radio and television masts, transmission lines, cell towers, mobile homes, caravans, and trailers, from September 1, 2023.

The revenue agency announced the development in a public notice released on Friday and signed by Muhammad Nami, its executive chairman. Nami explained that the items were previously excluded from building.

According to the FIRS, the provision allowing for the expansion of building is contained in the Finance Act 2023 which had a commencement date of May 1 but was later deferred to September 1.

“The definition of “building” was amended in Section 46 of the VAT Act to exclude any fixture or structure that can be easily removed from the land,” the notice reads.

“As such, all the items removed from the definition of land have become chargeable to VAT. Companies letting, trading in or providing services with such items must charge VAT at the prevailing rate with effect from 1st of September, 2023.”

The tax agency further said that Section 14(3) of the VAT Act was amended to the effect that persons appointed to withhold or collect VAT shall remit the VAT withheld or collected on or before the 14th day of the month following the month in which the VAT was withheld or collected.

“Consequently, all VAT withheld or collected in August 2023 shall be remitted to FIRS on or before the 14th of September 2023,” the notice reads.

“Similarly, VAT withheld or collected in subsequent months shall be remitted to FIRS not later than the 14th day of the month following that in which the VAT was withheld or collected.”

It added that the rate of tertiary education tax (TET) was changed to three percent of assessable profits.

“The new TET rate of 3% shall take effect for TET becoming due in respect of the accounting period ending on or after 1st September, 2023,” the FIRS said.

On investment allowances and convertible currencies, the FIRS said sections 32, 34, and 37 of the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) grant allowances in respect of capital expenditure incurred in certain circumstances, and tax exemption on income earned in convertible currencies from tourists by hotels have been repealed.

This, the agency said, means that the said allowances and tax exemption are no longer available for tax returns becoming due in respect of the accounting period ending on or after September 1, 2023.

However, the announcement has triggered a critical reaction from business leaders and analysts, who say that it is not time yet for the government to expand the tax net – considering Nigeria’s current poor economic situation.

There is concern that the move to include radio and television masts, transmission lines, cell towers, mobile homes, caravans, and trailers, in building will further squeeze the transport and telecom sectors.

Experts say that further increase in transportation costs will see the inflation rate, currently at 24.08%, accelerates – compounding the soaring cost of living.

Yemi Kale, Economist at KPMG Nigeria and former Chief of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in June, warned the government about raising taxes on household expenditure and private business. He said such a move would impact the Nigerian business ecosystem negatively.

“In terms of public finance, I am one of the few people that do not believe in increasing taxes. I’m not one of the people that is a fan of pushing up taxes, particularly in a recession and when the economy is struggling with fragile growth,” he said.

President Bola Tinubu, though desperately seeking to increase the government’s revenue, acknowledged that heavy taxation in times of economic crisis is “counterproductive.”

He said: “During times of economic weaknesses, increasing taxation is counterproductive, high taxes invite possible economic contradiction and higher unemployment.”

AI Insights That Will Lead Retail to Progress

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Imagine the retail of the future. “Smart” cameras and robots make sure that the store shelves are regularly replenished with goods, control deliveries, analyze which product is most popular with customers and at what time. They use Artificial Intelligence. This is a technique already used in various companies. Casinos are among them. Get your Bizzo Casino login to see the amazing games that the online casino has to offer.

No loss in sales, no more situations when the product is in the warehouse of the store. But it is not on the shelf and no one knows about it, the last mile problem is solved.

This is not a utopia. But the competent use of artificial intelligence (AI) in retail, opportunities that are available to businesses right now. For example, in 2017, the American company Walmart announced that it would use special robots to scan shelves in 500 stores across the states. The introduction of robots does not lead to job losses. IT saves employees from performing repetitive and boring tasks, such as inventory, price checking, and the presence of unknown items.

Fortunately, AI-based solutions are appearing more and more on the IT market. They can prevent these problems and help reduce losses.

AI Insights for Retail

Artificial intelligence, machine learning, Big Data, video analytics and digitalization give retail insights. They help businesses create more accurate forecasts and improve services.

Computer Vision

Computer vision is more than just a mobile app or a ceiling-mounted camera that monitors store shelves. Modern cameras attached to a shelf opposite can monitor everything in front of them. While robots drive around stores, monitor shelves and take pictures with a 360-degree camera. Regardless of how it is implemented, the function of computer vision is to take pictures of the shelves and their contents. To check whether the goods are in place and whether they correspond to the retailer’s planogram.

In addition, the functionality of computer vision provides for the possibility of monitoring price tags in the store. For example, you can track whether the value indicated on the price tag corresponds to the promotional one.

Besides advantages, the computer vision system has disadvantages.

The need to purchase a system and a large number of cameras. For example, purchasing video recording services for a large chain of stores can be expensive.

Recognition of each photo. This process requires a significant amount of computing power and remains a significant part of the costs.

The view of the cameras depends on the location. For example, cameras located on the opposite shelf demonstrate a fairly good result. But devices mounted on the ceiling have a limited viewing angle and cannot fully fix the lower shelves.

The chambers do not take into account the depth of the shelves. For example, the first three boxes of juice were taken from the shelf. Ten more boxes remained in a row, but the location of the camera does not allow it to fix the goods deep in the shelf.

The equipment requires regular maintenance and repair.

If all these points are taken into account, then disadvantages can be turned into advantages. And used proactively. For example, to increase the amount of computing power, it is better to use hybrid clouds. This is the best option for scaling infrastructure in the future and performing analysis and calculations in the present.

Analytical Solutions and the Formation of Clear Tasks

The analytics solution is a service that receives information from the retailer and analyzes data about such parameters. From price, sales, stock, promotions and product list. During the analysis, the system detects anomalies.

For example, if during the analysis of checks and the balance of goods in the warehouse, the service revealed a discrepancy between the sales plan and the fact. Then, the analytical solution initiates verification of the information.

Such tasks are generated automatically. Store managers do not need to spend employee resources on photographing and analyzing shelves and racks. Store personnel are connected only after the inspection has been initiated. Automation of part of the processes in retail has a number of advantages. Saving staff time, saving money, no need to pay extra for the work of employees, elimination of errors due to the human factor, control of the actions of the “field” employees of the store.

In addition, analytical services provide the ability to track lost sales. Receipt monitoring gives an idea of the purchases that could be made. Based on this information, the service builds a sales plan, and by monitoring the activities of employees, it determines when sales resume. Thanks to this service, you can evaluate the impact of its work on reducing lost sales.

Machine Learning in Retail

This is a method of quickly marking and analyzing large amounts of information that is beyond the power of a person. Large retailers are already using artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies to increase sales. For example, to create personalized product recommendations in mailing lists. Or to analyze customer data: purchase frequency and amount, lifestyle, preferred price level and favorite product categories.

The algorithms learn from historical data such as transactions, customer interaction history, information from online sources, revenue data, etc. The quality and volume of data, as well as the length of the period over which they are collected, determine the accuracy of the model, which will be obtained in the end.

Automation and Algorithms

Algorithms help to build a system of priority tasks for staff. This is a kind of accent that signals to employees that they need to pay attention to the problem.

For example, the task of promoting new products in retail is to ensure that a new product is brought to the store shelves and receives due attention from buyers. This can be hindered by two things.

First, the human factor. For example, retailers may forget to take out a product or not find a place for it on the shelf.

Second, the technical issues related to updating the store planogram and related processes.

Both problems can be overcome with the help of business algorithms and technical solutions.

Innovation plays an important role in business. To promote them, store employees need at least: not to forget them in the warehouse, take them to the trading floor, find a place on the shelf and put them up. If there is no shelf space, this is an additional trigger for the back office to check if the planogram is correct. with issues that are not major but still very important.

Big Data and Forecasts

Thanks to the development of a culture of collecting and storing information in retail, huge amounts of data are accumulating. They provide a huge number of opportunities for obtaining valuable insights. Some scenarios are already actively used in retail. For example, forecasting sales or the effectiveness of promotions. But only a small part of entrepreneurs knows how to work with this data.

Digitalization in retail is facilitated by four elements.

  • The information about the equipment used.
  • The installation of sensors to determine the location and condition of the goods at the stages of the supply chain.
  • The complete product information.
  • The information about cameras that are responsible for the security and recognition of buyers.

The process of full digitalization of retail is now under development and may take the next decade. This is a very simple logic: the more data each company digitizes, the more the total amount of useful information in retail increases.

AI solves Two Main Business Problems: Revenue Growth and Cost Reduction

In the future, the integration of AI solutions in retail not only eliminates human error, but is also cheaper. Equipment purchased once is more profitable than regular remuneration of additional employees, and artificial intelligence contributes to the generation of additional time, which in turn leads to “sales rescue” in retail.

Thus, artificial intelligence not only solves applied problems, but also solves two main business problems: revenue growth and cost reduction.