German exports showed a positive turn in late 2025, with a surprising surge at the end of the year helping the country achieve overall annual growth after two years of declines.

According to data released by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) exports in December 2025 rose by 4.0% month-on-month compared to November, reaching €133.3 billion. This significantly exceeded expectations of a 1% increase and marked a rebound from a 2.5% drop the prior month.

The boost came from stronger shipments to both EU and non-EU countries, including notable gains to the US (+8.9% from November) and China (+10.7%).For the full year of 2025, total exports reached approximately €1.57 trillion around $1.84 trillion, up 1.0% from 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This ended a streak of contractions and came as a surprise given ongoing challenges. European demand played a major role in supporting the annual growth, with exports to other EU countries rising around 4%. US trade faced headwinds from tariffs including a 15% baseline levy on many EU goods, leading to a 9.3% drop in exports to the US for the full year, shrinking the bilateral trade surplus to a four-year low of about €52.2 billion.

China overtook the US as Germany’s top trading partner in 2025, with overall trade volume growing about 2.7% year-on-year. Imports in December rose more modestly +1.4% month-on-month, widening the monthly trade surplus to €17.1 billion.

However, the picture was mixed: Industrial production fell more than expected in December down 1.9% month-on-month, particularly in autos and machinery, highlighting that the export rebound doesn’t fully signal a broad industrial recovery amid global uncertainties like tariffs and economic pressures.

This data reflects resilience in German trade despite external headwinds, with intra-European strength and a late-year push providing the key lift. US tariffs, primarily imposed under President Donald Trump’s second term starting in 2025, have had a significant negative impact on German exports, particularly to the United States, though the broader German economy has shown some resilience through diversification.

The key development was a July 2025 trade deal between the EU and the US that set a baseline tariff of 15% on most EU exports to the US (higher than pre-Trump levels, with even steeper rates on specific sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos in some cases).

This followed earlier announcements of tariffs on global imports, including targeted measures on automobiles and parts. In 2025, German exports to the US fell by 9.3% year-on-year, according to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) data released in early February 2026.

This reduced the bilateral trade surplus to a four-year low of about €52.2 billion from nearly €70 billion the prior year. Total German goods exports to the US amounted to roughly €147 billion ($173 billion) for the year. Sector-specific hits were severe: Automobiles and parts dropped sharply around 17.5% from January-November 2025 data, with some reports citing nearly 19% declines in motor vehicles/parts over parts of the year.

Machinery fell by about 9-9.5%. Chemicals and other products also saw notable declines. These reductions stemmed directly from the tariffs making German goods less competitive in the US market, with some front-loading of exports early in 2025 before full effects kicked in.

Despite the US hit, overall German exports rose by about 1.0% in 2025, ending two years of contraction. Stronger demand from other EU countries up around 4% largely offset losses to the US and a slight dip to China. China overtook the US as Germany’s top trading partner in 2025, with overall trade volume growing modestly.

The tariffs contributed to ongoing challenges in Germany’s export-oriented industries, exacerbating weak industrial production like a 1.9% monthly drop in December 2025 and contributing to subdued GDP growth of just 0.2% in 2025. Uncertainty from tariffs and threats of escalation weighed on investment and business sentiment, though some surveys showed economic confidence rebounding to multi-year highs by early 2026 despite ongoing risks.

Broader forecasts from Oxford Economics and others suggest that escalated tariffs, a hypothetical 25-30% blanket on Europe with retaliation could shave around 1% off eurozone GDP at peak, with prolonged effects on export-heavy Germany. Tensions flared in January 2026 with threats of additional 10-25% tariffs on Germany and other European nations tied to unrelated geopolitical issues, but these were later withdrawn or de-escalated.

German officials and industry groups via warnings from Chancellor Merz have criticized the measures as damaging, while noting that the US market remains important despite the hit. Some analyses indicate that US consumers and importers bear most of the tariff costs around 96% in one German study, rather than fully shifting the burden abroad.

While the tariffs delivered a clear blow to Germany’s US trade—particularly autos and machinery—they did not derail a modest export recovery, thanks to intra-European strength. However, persistent trade policy uncertainty continues to pose risks for 2026 and beyond, especially if further escalations occur.

German-Swiss Consortium Wins Contract for Danish Driverless Railway

A German-Swiss consortium consisting of Siemens Mobility (Germany) and Stadler Rail (Switzerland) has won a major contract from Danish State Railways (DSB) to supply and maintain a new fleet of fully automated, driverless trains for Copenhagen’s S-Bane (suburban rail network, also known as S-tog).

The framework agreement, announced in early 2026 with some reports referencing the award around January 2026 and formal signing/press releases on February 6, 2026, is valued at approximately €3 billion (around DKK 23 billion). It includes: Delivery of at least 226 four-car electric multiple units (EMUs), designed for fully driverless operation at Grade of Automation 4 (GoA4) — the highest level, meaning unattended train operation with no onboard driver.

An option for up to 100 additional trains. A 30-year maintenance agreement with options for extensions, including digital services via Siemens’ Railigent X platform. The trains will feature an iconic design, low-floor access for accessibility, modern passenger information systems, and a maximum speed of 120 km/h.

This contract is described as the world’s largest for driverless trains in an open (non-metro) railway system. It builds on earlier work: Siemens was awarded contracts worth about €270 million in 2024 to upgrade the network’s signaling and onboard systems for GoA4 automation.

Testing of the first driverless trains is expected to begin around 2028. Initial passenger service with the new trains starts in 2032. Full network automation across the 170 km S-Bane system is targeted by around 2040, enabling more frequent services potentially up to 35% increase, higher capacity, improved reliability, and closer headways.

The project is part of DSB’s “Future S-train” program to modernize the nearly 90-year-old Copenhagen suburban network, shifting from semi-automated (GoA2 with drivers) to fully unattended operations for better efficiency and passenger experience.

This deal highlights growing adoption of driverless technology in European commuter rail, with Siemens leading on electrical/digital systems (propulsion, braking, control, etc.) and Stadler handling carbodies, interiors, and assembly.

GoA4 (Grade of Automation 4) represents the highest level of automation in railway and urban guided transit systems, as defined by international standards like IEC 62290-1 from the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and aligned with definitions from the International Association of Public Transport (UITP).

The Grades of Automation (GoA) classify how much responsibility for train operation is handled automatically versus by humans. These levels apply primarily to urban rail systems (metros, subways, commuter trains) but are increasingly relevant to mainline and suburban networks like Copenhagen’s S-Bane.

Here are the standard five Grades of Automation (GoA0 to GoA4): GoA0 — Line-of-sight / manual operations with no automatic protection. The driver controls everything manually without automatic safeguards (rare in modern systems).

GoA1 — Non-automated train operation. The train is driven manually by a driver in the cab, but protected by automatic train protection (ATP) systems that prevent collisions, overspeed, etc. (common in traditional signaling).

GoA2 — Semi-automated train operation (STO — Semi-automatic Train Operation): The train automatically handles starting, acceleration, cruising, braking, and stopping. A driver remains in the cab to start the train (if required), operate doors (or supervise them), monitor the platform/track, handle emergencies, and intervene if needed. This is one of the most common levels today in many metro and commuter systems.

GoA3 — Driverless train operation (DTO — Driverless Train Operation). No driver is needed in the cab for normal operation — the system fully automates driving, starting, stopping, and often platform monitoring. However, onboard staff is present to open/close doors, assist passengers, handle customer service, and manage emergencies or degraded situations. The train can operate without a qualified driver, but humans are still onboard for safety and service roles.

GoA4 — Unattended train operation (UTO — Unattended Train Operation) or fully driverless/manless. This is the highest level: the train is fully automated and unattended, with no onboard staff required for safe operation. All core functions are handled automatically, including:Setting the train in motion

Onboard staff may optionally be present for non-safety roles like customer service, ticket checks, or cleaning, but they are not required for the train to operate safely. Manual fallback controls may exist for exceptional failures, but normal operation relies entirely on the automation system.

Key Advantages of GoA4

Enables very short headways; trains every 90–120 seconds for higher capacity. Reduces operational costs (no driver salaries, more efficient staffing). Improves reliability, energy efficiency, and punctuality through consistent automation. Supports 24/7 or high-frequency service.

Many modern driverless metro lines operate at GoA4, such as parts of the Singapore MRT, Vancouver SkyTrain, Delhi Metro (certain lines), Paris Métro Lines 1 and 14, and Sydney Metro. In the context of the Copenhagen S-Bane project, achieving GoA4 on an existing suburban rail network (not a closed metro) is ambitious and groundbreaking, as it extends full unattended automation to an open, mixed-traffic-style system.

GoA4 means complete transfer of operational responsibility to the system — no human is needed onboard to drive or ensure safety, marking true “driverless” or “unattended” rail operation.