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Tesla’s Quarterly Sales Rise on Expiring U.S. Tax Credit, but Global Struggles Remain

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Tesla’s quarterly sales increased for the first time this year, buoyed by a last-minute rush from U.S. consumers eager to claim a $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired on September 30.

The strong quarter has also helped drive Elon Musk’s personal fortune to a historic $500 billion, cementing his position as the richest man alive. But analysts caution that the real challenge lies in sustaining this momentum, given Tesla’s struggles in China and Europe, where the company faces mounting competitive and political headwinds.

Between July and September, Tesla produced 447,450 vehicles — 435,826 Model 3 and Model Y units and 11,624 “other vehicles” such as the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. That represented a 5 percent decline compared to the 469,796 vehicles produced in the third quarter of 2024. Deliveries, however, climbed 7.4 percent year-on-year to 497,099 vehicles, including 481,166 Model 3 and Model Y units and 15,933 other models, up from 462,890 last year.

For a direct-to-consumer automaker like Tesla, deliveries are the clearest measure of sales, and the spike was largely fueled by the deadline for the U.S. EV incentive. The company delivered nearly 50,000 more vehicles than it produced, cutting into excess inventory that had been building throughout the first half of the year.

However, beyond the U.S., Tesla’s position is less secure. In Europe, sales are down 37 percent year to date compared with 2024, a slump worsened by the company’s strained relationship with regulators and consumers amid Musk’s polarizing political views. Analysts say Tesla has yet to fully repair its brand image in the region, where buyers increasingly see alternatives from Volkswagen, BMW, Stellantis, and now, Chinese models, as safer choices.

In China, Tesla is also losing ground to domestic rivals BYD and Geely, whose aggressive pricing and rapid innovation cycles have allowed them to capture a growing share of the world’s largest EV market. Musk has acknowledged that the competition is “fierce,” with Tesla forced to cut prices several times this year to keep pace — a strategy that has pressured margins.

With the U.S. tax credit now expired, some analysts believe that sales could drop sharply in the coming quarters. Musk himself has admitted that Tesla faces “a few rough quarters” as it adjusts to life without incentives. Still, he insists the company’s future lies not in its current EV lineup but in its AI-driven ambitions, including robotaxis and humanoid robots. By the end of 2025, Musk has pledged that half of the U.S. population will have access to Tesla’s robotaxi network, though so far it operates only in Austin and San Francisco.

The latest sales figures arrive amid Tesla’s high-stakes governance drama. Its board has proposed an audacious $1 trillion pay package for Musk, tied to ambitious milestones including producing over a million robots, launching a million robotaxis, and creating $7.5 trillion in shareholder value. If approved at a November 6 shareholder meeting, the package could double Musk’s net worth and potentially make him the world’s first trillionaire.

Musk recently bought $1 billion in Tesla stock — his first open-market purchase in over five years — in what he described as a vote of confidence. Tesla also unveiled its latest “Master Plan,” pivoting from its day-to-day EV operations toward a long-term future centered on AI and robotics.

Still, that future is far from guaranteed. Analysts note that Tesla’s latest growth was tied almost entirely to the federal credit, rather than an organic rebound in global demand. Without significant progress in China and a repaired relationship with Europe, sustaining growth will be difficult. Meanwhile, Tesla’s current lineup is aging, and the company has yet to provide a firm timeline for a cheaper Model Y variant originally slated for volume production in the second half of 2025.

However, Tesla’s results have given Musk another historic milestone — a $500 billion personal net worth. But as the glow of the U.S. tax credit fades, the EV maker faces the bigger test to rebuild trust abroad and secure lasting demand for its next generation of products.

In a surprise turnaround from the first half of the year, Tesla’s global deliveries grew 7.4% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. The Elon Musk-owned carmaker delivered a record 497,099 Teslas during the three-month period, exceeding analyst expectations of 456,000. Tesla is one of several EV companies that benefited from a rush to purchase electric vehicles before a $7,500 federal tax credit expired Sept. 30. Rivian said Thursday that its deliveries jumped by a whopping 32% in the third quarter.

Samsung, SK Hynix Strike $70bn AI Chip Pact with OpenAI

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Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have signed letters of intent to supply memory chips for OpenAI’s data centers, a move that not only deepens their role in the U.S.-backed Stargate project but also redefines South Korea’s trade position in Asia’s increasingly competitive semiconductor race.

The agreements, announced Wednesday after a high-level meeting in Seoul between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, and the chairmen of Samsung and SK Hynix, position Seoul at the heart of what is set to become the world’s largest AI infrastructure project.

According to Reuters, OpenAI will also partner with the two chipmakers to build a “Korean-style Stargate,” including two new data centers in South Korea. The country, already home to the second-largest base of paying ChatGPT subscribers after the United States, is now anchoring itself as Asia’s AI hub.

South Korea’s top presidential adviser, Kim Yong-beom, said OpenAI plans to order 900,000 semiconductor wafers in 2029, with Samsung and SK Hynix jointly managing supply. Analysts estimate that the order could be worth more than 100 trillion won ($70 billion), though the final figure will fluctuate with global memory market cycles.

Initial data center capacity in Korea will begin at 20 megawatts, with Seoul signaling its willingness to co-finance if needed.

“The significant part of the Stargate project would be impossible without memory chips from the two companies,” Kim told reporters.

South Korea’s Leverage Against Taiwan and Japan

The agreement underscores South Korea’s comparative edge in the AI economy. While Taiwan’s TSMC dominates the global market for logic chips — the processors that power AI training models — its strength lies in advanced fabrication of CPUs and GPUs, not memory. By contrast, Samsung and SK Hynix command about 70% of the DRAM market and nearly 80% of the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market.

HBM has become critical in AI systems, allowing vast datasets to be processed efficiently while reducing energy consumption. With Nvidia pledging $100 billion to support OpenAI and relying heavily on HBM chips, Korea’s suppliers are becoming indispensable to AI infrastructure in ways even TSMC cannot replicate.

Japan, once a leader in the memory industry, has struggled to keep pace. Firms like Kioxia and Renesas remain important players but lack the scale and cutting-edge dominance of Samsung and SK Hynix. Analysts note that while Japan has leaned heavily on government subsidies to revive chip production, Seoul’s firms are cementing global leadership through billion-dollar AI partnerships.

“Korea has an industrial base like nowhere else in the world that is critical for the development of AI,” Altman said during his meeting with President Lee. “To get to work with such wonderful partners, Samsung and Hynix, really starting with memory, is essential to serving the world’s demand for AI.”

Beyond Chips: Korea as a Full-Spectrum AI Hub

Samsung Electronics’ affiliate Samsung SDS also signed a partnership with OpenAI to co-develop and operate AI data centers under Stargate. Meanwhile, Samsung Heavy Industries and Samsung C&T will build floating offshore data centers, designed to reduce cooling costs and carbon emissions.

These moves suggest South Korea is not just supplying chips but embedding itself across the AI infrastructure stack, from semiconductors to physical data centers, further strengthening its trade position compared to Taiwan and Japan.

The deal follows President Donald Trump’s unveiling of the $500 billion Stargate project in January, aimed at securing U.S. dominance in AI through global partnerships. Alongside South Korea, Stargate partners include SoftBank (9434.T), Oracle, and Nvidia.

Other tech giants are also circling the Korean market. Google is in talks with several South Korean companies for AI partnerships, while SK Group in June announced a 7 trillion won investment — including $4 billion from Amazon Web Services — to build a data center in the country.

Bubble Concerns Linger

Despite optimism, investors have raised concerns about the sheer scale of spending, warning of a potential AI bubble. The Stargate project has already been delayed by extended negotiations over financing and site selection, SoftBank’s CFO revealed in August.

Yet for South Korea, the risks are outweighed by the opportunity to cement itself as Asia’s indispensable AI partner. While Taiwan remains the logic chip powerhouse and Japan rebuilds its legacy industries, Seoul’s dominance in memory chips and new data infrastructure is expected to reshape the balance of trade across the region.

AWS Signs Multi-Year AI Partnership with NBA, Pushing Sports-Tech Rivalry with Microsoft

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Amazon’s cloud arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS), has signed a multi-year partnership with the National Basketball Association (NBA) to roll out artificial intelligence-powered features and game data insights, the two organizations announced on Wednesday.

The deal, which did not have a disclosed financial value, will debut “NBA Inside the Game,” a platform that converts live game data into interactive statistics and experiences for fans. It will appear across live broadcasts, the NBA App, the league’s website, and social channels. Teams themselves will gain access to the AI-driven data for performance reviews.

“Whenever we build a statistic, there is always input from our teams, because we want to make sure that these services we build not only are great for our fans, but also help our teams improve their strategy on court,” said Ken DeGennaro, the NBA’s head of media operations and technology.

Among the platform’s functions, the system will use player-tracking data to generate AI statistics, including defensive positioning, shot success probabilities, and real-time strategic insights.

The tie-up marks another high-profile sports partnership for AWS, which has already aligned with Formula 1 and the NFL. The NBA deal underscores its push to expand into basketball, a sport with a global following of billions and a rapidly growing digital fan base.

The announcement also highlights a deepening cloud rivalry. Earlier this year, Microsoft signed a five-year agreement with the English Premier League to embed its Copilot AI into the league’s digital platforms. For both AWS and Microsoft, sports leagues offer powerful visibility and a chance to showcase consumer-facing use cases for their enterprise-grade AI systems.

Cloud providers are seen as using marquee sports leagues to showcase their AI strengths. Basketball offers AWS global reach, especially in emerging digital markets like Asia, where the NBA has a massive following. Microsoft’s Premier League partnership, meanwhile, taps into Europe’s most popular sport, giving the company a foothold in one of the most lucrative sports media markets in the world.

For investors, while the NBA deal may not materially shift Amazon’s top line — AWS generated $25 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter — the visibility and branding associated with the NBA tie-up could bolster the perception of AWS’s AI moat at a time when Wall Street is scrutinizing how cloud providers plan to monetize AI at scale. Amazon shares often trade on expectations of AWS’s growth trajectory, given the division’s status as the company’s primary profit engine.

Analysts note that these partnerships can function less as direct revenue drivers and more as strategic proof points, signaling long-term demand for AI services that reinforce AWS’s premium valuation. Arm’s-length agreements with globally recognized leagues like the NBA may also set precedents for similar deals in other sports, extending AWS’s reach into adjacent markets.

Sports firms, for their part, are racing to adopt AI to keep fans engaged and provide coaching staff with competitive insights. That demand positions cloud providers as critical partners, further validating investor theses that AI will drive a new cycle of cloud spending.

In that context, the AWS–NBA agreement is being watched as much on Wall Street as on the court: not for its immediate financial impact, but for the valuation narrative it feeds into Amazon’s broader AI and cloud growth story.

Analysts say both partnerships are strategic proof points, representing more than just sports branding. Each deal signals to Wall Street that generative AI is moving beyond niche enterprise use cases into global consumer-facing platforms, strengthening the argument that AI could unlock a fresh cycle of cloud spending.

Qualcomm Embraces Arm’s v9 Architecture in Flagship Chips, Signaling Truce in Bitter Legal Clash

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Qualcomm has shifted its flagship chips to the latest generation of Arm Holdings’ computing architecture, with new features aimed at better AI performance, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters — a decision that could not only help Qualcomm compete more effectively with MediaTek and Apple but also give a revenue lift to Arm.

The move addresses lingering questions about whether and how Qualcomm will continue working with Arm following last year’s acrimonious legal dispute, during which Arm had at one point threatened to revoke a critical license. Qualcomm is signaling that it sees value in continuing the partnership by adopting the ninth version of Arm’s computing architecture — known in the industry as “v9” — even as legal tensions remain unresolved.

Shares of Arm jumped 5% during the regular session after news of Qualcomm’s adoption was published. Investors viewed the development as a sign that Arm, now publicly traded, can still rely on major chipmakers to integrate its designs despite growing competition from alternatives like RISC-V.

San Diego-based Qualcomm last week unveiled a new generation of PC and phone chips, and unlike previous iterations, its new processors will be built on the v9 instruction set. The update is designed to help chips handle more complex workloads such as generative AI, image generation, and chatbots — areas seen as central to the next wave of semiconductor demand.

Qualcomm rivals have already staked their positions. Taiwan’s MediaTek, which has at times surpassed Qualcomm’s market share in mobile processors, has publicly confirmed its use of v9. Analysts widely believe Apple is already deploying the architecture in its own chip designs. Qualcomm’s decision, therefore, aligns it with competitors already leveraging v9, avoiding the risk of being perceived as lagging behind in next-gen AI performance.

Asked about its choice of technology, Qualcomm declined to confirm specifics, saying instead in a statement: “We chose the instructions that make sense for our customers. That’s the beauty of having our own CPU design team — we can pick and choose the instructions that add value.”

For investors, the shift highlights an important divergence in strategies across the semiconductor industry. While RISC-V has gained attention as a free, open-source chip standard, it lacks the maturity and developer ecosystem of Arm’s architecture. Qualcomm could have chosen to extend use of its prior Arm generation, as it did with its chips announced last year, or leaned more aggressively toward open standards. Qualcomm appears to be balancing the need for cutting-edge AI performance with the relative stability of Arm’s established ecosystem by opting for v9.

Jay Goldberg, senior analyst for semiconductors and electronics at Seaport Research Partners, said the financial impact for Arm is difficult to quantify since Qualcomm licenses Arm’s computing architecture but designs much of its chip in-house. Still, he said the decision is strategically significant given the recent disputes.

“That’s very positive for Arm,” Goldberg said. “These are companies that were fighting each other. Qualcomm could have gone a very different path here.”

The adoption is believed to underline Qualcomm’s determination to keep pace in the AI-driven semiconductor race, where Apple and MediaTek have already made headway. For Arm, the win strengthens its case to shareholders that even amid legal frictions and emerging rivals, its core technology remains indispensable to industry leaders.

A foray Into The 2025 US Government Partial Shutdown

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The US federal government has entered a partial shutdown at 12:01 a.m. EDT after Congress failed to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year’s end on September 30.

This marks the 15th shutdown since 1981, triggered by deep partisan divides over spending priorities, including health care protections, border security, and infrastructure funding.

The impasse pits Republicans, who control the White House, House, and Senate under President Trump, against Democrats demanding extensions for Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits and opposition to cuts in social programs.

The House passed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund operations through November 21 at current levels, but it stalled in the Senate, where Democrats blocked it via filibuster, citing insufficient protections against rising health costs and other “partisan riders.”

President Trump and GOP leaders blame Senate Democrats, particularly Leader Chuck Schumer, for the “Schumer Shutdown,” while Democrats counter that Republicans are using the crisis to slash entitlements.

In retaliation, the Trump administration has frozen $18 billion in federal funds for New York City rail and subway projects, targeting Schumer’s home state.

A White House meeting on September 29 yielded no breakthrough, with Trump threatening “mass layoffs” for non-essential programs to force negotiations.

No resolution timeline is clear, but past shutdowns have lasted from days to over a month. The shutdown halts non-essential operations, furloughs ~800,000 federal workers without pay, though backpay is eventual, and disrupts services.

Essential functions like national security, air traffic control, and law enforcement continue, but with reduced staffing ~800,000 furloughed (e.g., IRS, EPA staff); ~1.4 million “essential” workers unpaid but on duty like Border Patrol, TSA. Daily losses: $400M in wages.

Military personnel continue duties; backpay guaranteed post-shutdown. September jobs report (Oct 3) delayed; other BLS stats halted. Wall Street unease amid volatility.

Stock markets open as usual, but investors watch for prolonged effects. Airport security lines lengthen fewer TSA; flight delays possible; national parks close no rangers, visitor centers. Flights operate; FAA air traffic control continues pilots union warns of strain.

FDA halts new drug approvals, food inspections; USDA stops loan guarantees, animal feed monitoring risk to meat/milk safety. Medicare/Medicaid payments continue; ACA subsidies at risk if unresolved by year-end.

NIH/NSF halt grants, scientific work; HUD pauses new loans/mortgages. Smithsonian museums open until ~Oct 6 using reserves. IRS stops processing refunds, audits; DOJ curtails civil cases.

Criminal prosecutions, border security proceed. Tax filing deadline Oct 15 for extensions unchanged. Smithsonian, Capitol/White House tours canceled; WIC nutrition aid for low-income families at risk.

Social Security checks issued; veterans’ benefits continue. Estimated weekly cost: $1B+ to travel alone, plus broader economic drag. Prolonged shutdown could lead to permanent layoffs in discretionary programs, per OMB guidance.

This shutdown echoes 2018-2019’s border wall fight but ties into 2025’s battles over ACA credits expiring December 31 and Trump’s push for spending cuts federal outlays up 58% since 2019.

VP JD Vance called Democrats “hostage takers” on CBS, while Speaker Mike Johnson framed it as a “downsize opportunity.” Former VP Kamala Harris blamed Republicans for prioritizing “health care cost hikes.”

The partial shutdown, now in its first day as of October 1, 2025, extends beyond immediate service disruptions into broader ripple effects on the economy, public health, political dynamics, and daily life.

While historical shutdowns have often been short-lived with retroactive pay for workers, this one—fueled by clashes over ACA extensions, spending cuts, and partisan riders—carries unique risks due to the Trump administration’s threats of mass layoffs and program reductions.

Experts like those at the Milken Institute warn of amplified economic drag in a fragile recovery environment, with potential GDP hits of 0.1-0.5% per week if prolonged. Below, I break down the key implications across categories, drawing on contingency plans, expert analyses, and real-time reactions.

Shutdowns typically shave off minimal growth, but this could differ amid high debt— debt-to-GDP at 130% and volatility from tariffs or inflation. Key effects include delayed data releases, furlough-induced spending drops ($400M daily wage loss), and investor unease—S&P futures dipped overnight, while Bitcoin held steady above $113K, echoing past rallies during uncertainty.

Health risks climb with FDA/USDA inspection halts like meat safety lapses, and NIH trials pause, delaying research. Social Security/Medicare payments flow mandatory spending, but VA services strain—veterans’ hospitals stay open, but non-urgent care waits.

Airports operational but strained TSA lines up 20-30%; national parks close visitor centers, canceling hikes and tours—impacting 400+ sites and $500M+ monthly tourism. Smithsonian museums shutter after Oct 6.

Disproportionate harm to women/minorities via WIC/SNAP cuts; urban areas like NYC face amplified transit woes from frozen funds. Prolonged effects could mirror 2013’s sanitation crises in parks, fostering public health hazards.

This “Schumer Shutdown” (GOP label) vs. “GOP austerity ploy” (Dem framing) deepens divides, with Trump eyeing it for entitlement reforms and Democrats filibustering over ACA credits expiring Dec 31.

White House broadcasts mock Dem “devastating impacts” rhetoric, while polls show 59% of independents oppose shutdowns. Senate votes failed 55-45 (GOP CR) and 47-53 (Dem alternative); next attempts Wednesday, but brinkmanship persists.

Scope Ratings flags U.S. ‘AA’ downgrade risk from fiscal chaos, eroding trust amid rising deficits. Allies watch warily; adversaries may exploit delays in aid/diplomacy. Could force OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) tweaks, but Vought’s letter blames Dem “insane demands,” signaling escalation.

Overall, a brief shutdown under 2 weeks likely limits damage to inconvenience, but extension invites recessionary echoes, per Nomura economists.