In 2015, when Muhammadu Buhari won the presidential election, actualizing his long-term dream to lead Nigeria for the second time – after his dictatorial spell as a military head of state, a large section of the country was filled with hope of a better future.
The hope, which was evident in the Sai Baba mantra and its emotionalism – buoyed by overwhelming clamor for leadership change, eclipsed the scanty voices calling out his antecedents.
During his campaign pre-2015, Buhari, in the All Progressive Congress (APC) policy document and manifesto, made nearly 100 promises to Nigerians. He promised among many things to: Make Nigeria one of the fastest-growing, emerging economies in the world with a real GDP growth averaging 10% annually; eradicate state of origin, replacing that with state of residence to ensure Nigerians are Nigerians first, before anything else; creation of 720,000 jobs by the 36 states (20,000 per state) in the federation per annum; generate, transmit and distribute at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years and increasing to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving 24-7 uninterrupted power supply within 10 years.
Buhari also promised to ban all government officials from seeking medical care abroad; preserve the independence of the central bank and strengthen INEC to reduce, if possible, eliminate electoral malpractices in Nigerian’s political life.
These promises kept the bubbles of Sai Baba emotionalism afloat, as they were largely anchored on the perception of Buhari as Mr. Integrity, who is incorruptible, and who has, based on his military background, the will to execute his promises.
But on the eve of the inauguration of Buhari’s successor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose election is being challenged in the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT), Nigerians, looking back at the past eight years – rued the time, decisions, events and memories that characterized Buhari’s presidency.
“He led the country without any economic direction. He presided over a Government that failed to secure the lives of Nigerians; 63k dead, 3m IDPs & 366k refugees in neighboring countries. He failed to restructure as he promised. He granted waivers to the rich & impoverished the poor,” Senator Shehu Sani wrote.
The Nigerian economy started on a downward trend soon after Buhari assumed office, erasing the progress made under the preceding government. One of his most impactful economic policies was the closure of land borders and the ban on some food importation, especially rice, which experts believe to have contributed immensely to food inflation hitting its highest level in years at more than 24%.
In its November 2022 ‘Nigeria Poverty Assessment’, report, the World Bank noted that the economic progress recorded by Nigeria between 2001 and 2014, stagnated from 2015, owing to poor economic policies that ensued after Buhari became president.
“Nigeria’s development progress has stagnated. Between 2001 and 2014, Nigeria was a rising star in West Africa, with an average growth rate of seven percent per year, and it ranked among the top 15 fastest-growing economies in the world.
“However, this trend ended abruptly in 2015, as oil prices fell, the security situation deteriorated, macroeconomic reforms were reversed, and economic policies became increasingly unpredictable,” it said.
Buhari was also accused of nepotism, which resulted in the appointments of unqualified men into key positions of leadership. “He appointed & retained failures and rewarded them with extensions,” Sani added.
The abysmal economic performance, which Buhari’s critics said could only be compared to the nation’s economic performance during his time as the military Head of State, became the star of all his other failed promises.
Against this backdrop, the naira took a nosedive – falling to its lowest level in history at more than N800/$1 at the parallel market – following repeated devaluations.
With the economy in shambles, Buhari’s promises to make Nigeria one of the fastest-growing economies in the world with a real GDP growth averaging 10% annually, and to facilitate the creation of 720,000 jobs by the 36 states in the federation per annum, gradually became wishful thinking. It was exacerbated by his failure to increase power generation to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving 24-7 uninterrupted power supply within 10 years.
In July 2015, during his official state visit to the United States, Buhari in his address at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), made the infamous 97% – 5% speech while answering a question on how he plans to protect the interest of Niger-Deltans.
“I hope you have a copy of the election results. The constituents, for example, who gave me 97% [of the vote] cannot in all honesty be treated on some issues with constituencies that gave me 5%,” Buhari said to Dr. Pauline Baker, the President Emeritus of The Fund for Peace.
His response riled up a national concern about his promise to “eradicate state of origin, replacing that with state of residence to ensure Nigerians are Nigerians first, before anything else.” Months later, Buhari would show his commitment to the above statement by carrying out what is believed to be lopsided appointments that sidelined the South-south and Southeast regions of the country.
Buhari went further, in a rare interview with ChannelsTV, to describe the Southeast region as “a dot in a circle,” lending credence to the belief that he’s indignant toward the Igbos. The former president is believed to be the most divisive leader that Nigeria has ever had, with many saying that since the civil war, Nigeria has never been divided like it was under his leadership.
On February 5, 2016, eight months after assuming office, Buhari went on his first medical trip to London, the United Kingdom; a trip which eventually culminated in more than seven months of medical tourism, breaching again his campaign promise, this time – in the most hypocritical way.
As Nigeria’s economic situation bites harder, following the plunge in oil revenue, the Buhari-led administration took to borrowing. In eight years, the federal government had moved Nigeria’s public debt profile from N12.6 trillion in 2015 to over N46 trillion in 2023. The staggering debt includes N23 trillion the federal government illegally borrowed from the Central Bank of Nigeria through Ways and Means advancement. The Ways and Means allows the CBN to lend to the federal government. But under the CBN Act, the central bank is not allowed to lend more than 5% of the total revenue generated by the federal government the previous year.
That blatant disregard for the CBN Act, flagrantly opposed Buhari’s promise to preserve the independence of the central bank.
Toward the end of his second term, Buhari signed the Electoral Bill into law. The Electoral Act was seen as a recipe for credible election in line with the former president’s promise to strengthen the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to reduce, or if possible, eliminate electoral malpractices in Nigerian’s political life.
This was seen as a parting gift from the president. With the changes in electoral laws, which allow for the use of technology such as Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, and the IREV to be used for accreditation and transmission of results from polling units to the INEC portal in real time, Nigerians were hopeful of free and fair election.
But as it turned out, the election was marred by allegations of irregularities that significantly compromised the credibility of the results and questioned the integrity of the electoral umpire.
“Public confidence and trust in INEC were severely damaged on 25 February due to lack of transparency and operational failures in the conduct of the federal level polls,” the European Union Election Observation Mission noted about the election.
Based on the conduct of the election which failed to follow electoral laws, many believe that the Electoral Act was after all, a Greek gift from Buhari. To a large section of Nigerians, Buhari’s promise of credible election is prominent among his failed promises.
Besides his promises
Besides Buhari’s failure to keep many of his promises, other events born of his decisions left indelible dark marks on his leadership and dented what’s left of his image before most Nigerians, especially the youths.
In 2020, Nigerian youths took to the streets to protest incessant harassment, extortion and killings by the Special Anti Robbery Squad, SARS, a rogue police unit. The protest eventually turned into a global movement. It was described as the most successful protest that has ever happened in Nigeria.
Startled by the relentless determination of the youths to stay in the streets until their demands, which included the disbandment of SARS and the improvement of police welfare – are met, the Lagos State government, in collaboration with the federal government, unleashed soldiers on the protesting youths, killing and injuring many.
A panel of inquiry set up by the Lagos State government a year later, found that officers of the Nigerian Army “provocatively and unjustifiably” shot live bullets and killed several protesters at the Lekki Tollgate, and then took their corpses away.
The incident, which is widely known as Lekki Massacre, drew worldwide condemnation.
But prior to that, there were mass killings of members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) also known as Shiites and members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) by the Nigerian security agents under Buhari’s watch.
As Buhari handed the baton to Tinubu on the 29th of May, many Nigerians are happy that they will never have to live under his leadership again. But his footprints, notable in the 133 million Nigerians that fell under multidimensional poverty, more than 18 million jobs lost, 33.3% unemployment rate, booming corruption, 63,000 deaths and grossly divided nation; will remain a lifetime in the minds of many.
The World Bank said that “it would take roughly a decade for Nigeria to return to the level of GDP per capita seen in 2014.”
