When an industry cannot attract some of the finest young people in a nation, that industry fades over time. In the 1960s and 1970s, the public sector in Nigeria attracted some of the brilliant young people in the country – and those minds architected a vision for the nation. By the 1990s, the banking and oil & gas sectors had taken over, sapping the public sector dry as they cornered the bests. In the 2010s, the telecom sector finished the game.
Today, you will struggle to see most top 5% graduating students from any major university in Nigeria working in the public sector. Check your graduating class and compare!
Our challenges are multifaceted. Do not think we can just overcome them with new policies. Nigeria has great policies but we struggle on implementation and execution. And the reason is clear: the government does not have the capacity to execute most of its policies because the government does not have A-teams.
Have you visited your local government headquarters? What of the state secretariats? Can those offices compete for top talent? If they cannot, the implication is that your roads, clinics, and everything they’re to supervise will underperform.
I maintain this position: until Nigeria can elect a leader who can inspire young people to see a future in working for the government, we will not reverse this fading trajectory. You do not abandon the bottom of the class for the government, and tomorrow complain that nothing is working (this is not to say that the government does not have brilliant minds; I am using statistics here: the bulk of the workers do not offer value).
Get the point: Nigeria needs a leader who will inspire the future and attract that future to execute the right policies.
Comment 1: Unfortunately, for me, it was the A team in the 70s that ruined this country. The system trained them to feel entitled to public resources, they wanted more and more until everyone was hustling for his/her own shares. Nigeria produces one of the worst educated people on earth.
The same A team started sending their children abroad to get education, seeing it cost more, and wanted more public funds to fund the fees. These children get educated and refuse to come back, except of course they see opportunity here to continue to milk the system.
The A team of the 60s and 70s killed the country and blamed the GenZ for not being successful.
Given, they were smart individuals but morally bankrupt. They ripped a system that was innocent. I know a bank that went bankrupt in this country because the executives stole it dry and started their own bank that still exists till today. I know this because my father worked in the bank that went bankrupt. He was without a job for years.
Same way this generation is also making victims of innocent Americans and will make it difficult for future ones to even relate easily with them. The difference was that Nigeria was green then with so much potential.
It was a generation that got education basically to survive and not to provide solutions, or impact their world positively.
They got into the public sector and crippled it.
Leadership, as you have opined, is desired now to manage the not so educated ones who at least can be manipulated to achieve desired results.
My Response: The 1970s did not destroy Nigeria. What destroyed Nigeria is that Nigeria is unable to attract its smartest people to the public sector. In a graduating class of electrical and mechanical engineering from Ife, UNN and ABU, the Nigerian Railways was sure of getting quality 80% ready to serve -and the corporation was sure of attracting the top 5%. From Nitel to Waterboard to NEPA, etc those guys delivered. And we ran rail systems which worked.
But later, those agencies could not attract the best and suddenly those systems could not be maintained and they collapsed. Without picking your comments one by one, statistically, less than 0.1% could afford to send their kids abroad because Nigerian universities were just good and the money required was not there (one director sending a son to the UK when 1,000 staff under him had kids studying in Nigeria). When I was in FUTO (1998), I had schoolmates who were Indians, Europeans, etc. So, while some sent their kids abroad, that was insignificant.
There is no doubt that coups distorted the equilibrium system. There is no doubt that the next generation could not maintain systems manned by the former (see railway, roads, etc). Over time, there was an inflection point: the best went into banking, oil & gas and telecom. The implication is that Nigeria still produces great people. The issue is that most have no interest in the public sector. In my class in FUTO, none of the top 5% is working for the public sector (check your own class); that is the issue. Yes, I am not saying we’re not producing smart guys, my point is that most are not working for the public!
Comment 2:You don’t need the best minds. You need the best systems.
Public sector need consistent and stable administration.
You don’t have to best accountant to teach in a universtiy.
But, the university must be the place where you can create good accountants.
If you focus your strategy on getting the best talent. Especially in Nigeria, you would lose out on the competition because the public sector is not designed for top performers.
That is like putting gifted children in a regular school, it’s a disservice to not only the student but to the school as a whole.
My Response: you point is convoluted. Your assumption is that the systems are static. Understand that every generation has to build its systems, including supporting already existing ones. The public sector cannot build great systems without talent. When the public sector was attracting the best, banking, etc struggled. But when the inflection happened, those minds went to build the banks, telcoms and oil & gas systems. And with the public sector left without A-teams, it folded. Nigerian Railways did not collapse because of lack of train cars; it collapsed because the best engineers left!
Check the top 5% of your class, check where they work today. It is unlikely that more than 50% of them work for the public. If that is the case, building the systems for today will become challenging for public.
Yes, I am not saying we’re not producing smart guys, my point is that most are not working for the public!
Comment 3: Prof Ndubuisi We’re yet to see your analysis on Nigeria election.
My Response: We decided not to make it public. So, I am not making it public. But those in our private client services have copies already to drive their business decisions and risk modeling. Largely, I have realized that sharing intellectual things here may not help many. Unlike in the past where people asked for clarifications on things they did not understand, Nigerians have changed: they just curse, abuse, etc.
Comment 3R: It is true. I remember you promised to make your prediction open and to be made opened around December. Is there any hint for us here that we can just run with as a guide? We will appreciate it. 
My Response: I stopped sharing deep intellectual things on Facebook because most of the users surprise! I deleted the post where I “apologized” to Buhari for my non-understanding of his political philosophy. I shared the same post on LinkedIn and there are close to 416 comments (close to 90,000 impressions) and largely 100% are constructive even though some do not agree with me (but no abuse on the President).
But on Facebook, 29 commented and more than 16 were abusing the president: “you did not live in Nigeria to understand our suffering”, “Buhari is evil”, “Buhari is wicked”, “you support evil on people”, etc. I deleted the post because the comments made no sense. Buhari demands respect and people cannot use my feed to abuse the president. If you have issues with him, handle those on your feed and none mine.
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