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Treasury and Fed Chiefs Warn Bank CEOs Against Anthropic’s Mythos AI as Pentagon Blacklisting Gains Fresh Legal Ground

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called top bank executives to an urgent closed-door meeting this week to alert them to the cybersecurity dangers posed by Anthropic’s newly launched Mythos model, according to three people familiar with the gathering quoted by Reuters.

The Tuesday session at Treasury headquarters came just days after Anthropic released the powerful system — but stopped short of a full public rollout, explicitly citing the risk that it could reveal and weaponize previously unknown vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure.

The company has described Mythos as capable of identifying and exploiting weaknesses across “every major operating system and every major web browser.” It has already surfaced thousands of high-severity flaws, including bugs that had lain dormant for nearly three decades.

Last week, Anthropic confirmed it was engaged in ongoing discussions with U.S. government officials about the model’s “offensive and defensive cyber capabilities.” A source close to the company said it had proactively briefed senior officials and key industry players ahead of the limited launch.

The meeting’s purpose was to make sure the largest U.S. banks understand the emerging threats from Mythos and similar frontier models and are moving aggressively to fortify their systems. Most CEOs were already in Washington for other meetings, allowing Treasury to convene the group on short notice. Among those present were the chiefs of Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was unable to attend.

Access to Mythos remains tightly controlled. Only about 40 carefully vetted technology companies, including Microsoft and Google, have been granted use under Anthropic’s Project Glasswing, an initiative aimed at using the model to hunt for and patch vulnerabilities in critical open-source code before adversaries can exploit them.

The gathering reflects deepening official anxiety that advanced AI has crossed a threshold where its ability to discover and chain exploits at machine speed could dramatically shift the balance between attackers and defenders.

For banks, which safeguard trillions in customer assets and sit at the center of the payments system, the stakes are existential. A single successful AI-augmented breach could cascade into systemic instability far beyond any one institution.

The warning to the financial sector lands amid a broader, intensifying campaign by the U.S. government to limit Anthropic’s reach in sensitive areas. The Pentagon shows no sign of easing its pressure on the company. Earlier this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit denied Anthropic’s request for a temporary stay, upholding the Defense Department’s designation of the startup as a “supply chain risk.”

In unusually direct language, the appeals court wrote that the “equitable balance here cuts in favor of the government,” noting that the alternative would amount to “judicial management of how, and through whom, the Department of War secures vital AI technology during an active military conflict.”

That ruling keeps Anthropic locked out of Pentagon contracts and bars defense contractors from using Claude on military-related work, even as the company retains access to other federal agencies under a separate court injunction.

The blacklisting, the first of its kind against a major U.S. AI firm, was triggered by Anthropic’s refusal to grant the Pentagon unrestricted access to its models for “all lawful purposes,” a stance rooted in the company’s self-imposed guardrails against fully autonomous weapons and domestic mass surveillance.

Together, the Treasury-Fed briefing and the Pentagon’s legal victory paint a picture of a government increasingly determined to treat frontier AI models as dual-use technologies requiring careful containment. While Mythos is positioned by Anthropic as a tool for proactive defense, accelerating the discovery of vulnerabilities that human teams might miss for years, officials clearly worry it could just as easily empower sophisticated nation-state actors or criminal groups.

However, the message from Washington to banks was that the era of treating AI cyber tools as just another software upgrade is over. With Mythos already demonstrating breakthrough offensive capabilities, institutions are being told they must assume that adversaries, state-sponsored or otherwise, will soon have access to similar technology.

The question now is whether the financial sector can move fast enough to close the gaps before the model’s controlled release inevitably leaks into wider use.

In the broader AI arms race, Tuesday’s meeting and the appeals court’s reinforcement of the Pentagon’s stance underscore a growing reality: the U.S. government is no longer content to let the private sector self-regulate at the frontier. When models can both defend and attack the nation’s most critical systems, Washington intends to set the rules of engagement.

Ex-JPM Quant Chief Marko Kolanovic Dismisses Nasdaq’s Post-Ceasefire Rally as Built on Sand, Warns of Sharp Reversal

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NASDAQ

The Nasdaq Composite stormed higher on Thursday, leading a broad relief rally after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

The tech-heavy index jumped nearly 5 percent, outpacing the S&P 500’s 3.8 percent gain and the Dow’s 3.4 percent advance. For the first time since the conflict erupted, the Nasdaq has climbed back above its pre-war levels.

Invesco’s momentum technology ETF notched a fresh record high, fueled by a wave of buying in AI-related names and memory chip stocks that carry heavy weight in the fund.

But one of Wall Street’s most respected voices on market structure and macro risks isn’t impressed. Marko Kolanovic, who spent years as JPMorgan’s chief quantitative strategist before stepping back from the bank, took to X to call the move exactly what he thinks it is: a classic overreaction destined to unwind.

“The biggest gain ever on nothing (fake deal, Hormuz closed). So likely the biggest fade too …” he wrote, replying to a chart tracking the momentum ETF’s surge.

Kolanovic didn’t stop there. He warned that momentum tech “will crash if (when) talks yield nothing.” And as fresh signs of fragility emerged, he posed a blunt question: “who, apart from markets, still thinks negotiations are viable with this condition?”

The condition in question has stirred broader concern. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf made clear that any serious negotiations must include a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets. Trump, meanwhile, posted that Iran “better not be” charging fees to tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, insisting the current arrangement fell short of the agreement he announced.

U.S. negotiators, led by Vice President JD Vance, are still scheduled to sit down with their Iranian counterparts in person on Saturday. But the gap between the two sides’ public positions is widening by the hour.

Kolanovic’s skepticism carries weight because he has spent his career dissecting how markets price geopolitical risk — and how quickly sentiment can flip when reality intrudes. He has long argued that the kind of short-term relief rallies seen after headline ceasefires often prove unsustainable when underlying disputes remain unresolved.

This one, he believes, fits the pattern perfectly: a market desperate for de-escalation seized on Trump’s announcement while largely ignoring the fine print.

Memory chip stocks, which dominate the momentum ETF, are especially exposed in Kolanovic’s view. The sector has ridden the AI infrastructure boom for months, with investors betting that insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory will keep capital spending on data centers red-hot. But those same chips are highly sensitive to any renewed supply-chain jitters or broader risk-off moves.

A breakdown in Saturday’s talks could quickly remind traders that geopolitics still matters — and that the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint for global energy flows.

The rally itself was textbook relief trading: systematic funds rebalanced, short sellers covered, and retail piled in. Yet the speed and magnitude of the move, the largest seven-day gain for the momentum ETF in two decades, struck many seasoned traders as excessive given the ceasefire’s obvious fragility.

Oil prices, which had spiked during the fighting, eased only modestly, and defense stocks held most of their gains, suggesting the market isn’t fully convinced the threat has passed.

For now, the disconnect between Wall Street’s pricing and the on-the-ground reality in the Middle East is exactly what Kolanovic is highlighting. Markets are betting on diplomacy. He is betting that the diplomacy has a long way to go — and that when the optimism fades, the correction in the most crowded tech trades could be swift and painful.

The outcome of Saturday’s meeting will likely decide if he is right.

Hormuz Traffic Still Choked After Ceasefire as Iran Tightens Maritime Control and Energy Markets Stay on Edge

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Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below normal levels even after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, heightening concern over the possibility of a permanent peace deal.

The Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted on Friday, underscoring that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little, at least for now, to restore normal flows.

According to vessel-tracking data, only 15 ships had entered or exited the strait since the ceasefire was announced on April 8, a fraction of the prewar average of about 138 to 140 vessels a day. The numbers point to a waterway that is technically open but functionally constrained. This is the crucial distinction now confronting oil markets, insurers, and Asian importers.

A ceasefire can halt active hostilities, but it does not automatically restore navigational confidence, war-risk insurance cover, or the operational certainty needed for hundreds of tankers to resume passage through a militarized chokepoint.

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely another shipping route. It is the single most important oil transit corridor in the world, handling close to 20% of global crude and petroleum-product flows, much of it bound for Asia, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The collapse in traffic since the conflict began on February 28 has already removed roughly one-fifth of global oil supply from normal seaborne circulation, creating what traders describe as the largest supply disruption in modern oil-market history. That has fed directly into the roughly 50% surge in crude prices seen during the conflict.

The ceasefire was meant to begin easing that pressure. Instead, the shipping data suggest the waterway remains under de facto Iranian control. On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a revised maritime routing directive, instructing vessels to use a northern passage near Larak Island and remain within Iranian territorial waters to avoid suspected mine risks in the usual traffic lanes.

Tehran is effectively asserting operational control over transit through the strait without formally declaring a closure by redirecting vessels through Iranian-monitored waters. This allows it to retain leverage while staying within the framework of the temporary truce.

But the route around Larak Island has now become central to the ceasefire’s practical implementation. Some vessels have already begun taking the unusual corridor, according to tracking data.

British maritime security firm Ambrey warned that vessels not explicitly authorized by Iran, especially those linked to the United States or Israel, remain vulnerable.

In one of the most telling assessments of the current environment, the company said: “Even shipping with apparent approval has been turned back in recent weeks mid-transit.”

That line captures why traffic has not normalized. The issue is no longer simply whether ships are legally permitted to pass. It is whether shipowners, charterers, insurers, and crews believe the risk-adjusted economics justify moving.

War-risk premiums have surged, in some cases rising from near-negligible levels to multiple percentage points of hull value. For large crude carriers, that can translate into millions of dollars per voyage.

This is where reports of possible Iranian tolls add an additional challenge. Multiple media outlets and shipping monitors have reported that Tehran may be considering charging as much as $2 million per ship for passage, though the legality of such fees under international maritime law remains deeply contested.

Western governments have already pushed back strongly. President Donald Trump has warned Tehran against imposing any transit fees, arguing that the waterway must remain open under internationally recognized navigation rights.

Lack of consensus means the implication for oil and shipping markets remains. Even if the ceasefire holds for the full two-week period, the backlog itself will take time to unwind.

Hundreds of tankers and cargo vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf, and maritime analysts say clearing that congestion could take days or weeks even under ideal conditions.

That means supply restoration will lag diplomatic headlines. Thus, crude prices may remain elevated because physical barrels are still not moving at normal volumes. Asian buyers are particularly exposed, given their heavy dependence on Gulf crude. Japan’s decision to announce an additional emergency oil release underscores how seriously governments are treating the continued disruption.

There is concern that if Tehran cannot or will not fully reopen Hormuz during the ceasefire window, Washington and its allies may conclude that Iran is using the truce to consolidate strategic leverage rather than de-escalate.

Conversely, Iran may argue that continued regional military actions, particularly Israeli operations in Lebanon, amount to breaches of the wider understanding, thereby justifying continued control measures.

However, as long as the waterway remains effectively choked, hopes for a durable peace will remain under a cloud, and the two-week ceasefire will continue to look less like a pathway to de-escalation.

China’s Factory-Gate Prices Rise for First Time in 3½ Years as Oil Shock Fuels Cost-Push Inflation Fears

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China’s producer prices returned to growth in March for the first time in more than three years, marking a potentially significant turning point for the world’s second-largest economy as surging oil prices from the Middle East conflict begin feeding through to industrial costs.

Official data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% year on year in March, beating economists’ expectations for a 0.4% gain and ending a 41-month streak of factory-gate deflation, the longest such run in decades.

The move into positive territory is being driven less by a broad-based recovery in domestic demand than by a sharp rise in imported energy and commodity costs, as the war involving Iran and the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to roil global markets.

By contrast, inflation at the consumer level remained comparatively subdued. China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% in March from a year earlier, slowing from 1.3% in February and missing the 1.2% consensus forecast in a Reuters poll. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.7%, a much steeper decline than the expected 0.2% drop, suggesting that underlying consumer demand remains soft even as upstream price pressures intensify.

That divergence between producer and consumer inflation is the most important signal in the data as it points to what economists often describe as cost-push inflation, where rising input costs, rather than stronger household demand, drive price increases.

This is the kind of inflation policymakers dislike most because it squeezes manufacturers’ margins while offering little evidence of stronger economic momentum.

The immediate catalyst is energy. The Middle East conflict, now in its sixth week, has sharply disrupted global oil flows after Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial tankers and regional producers curbed output. Brent crude has surged dramatically since the crisis began, with benchmark prices moving close to the $100-per-barrel mark and, at points, even higher across different sessions.

Although China has boasted of sufficient energy, as the world’s largest crude importer, the Iran war has created an imported inflation shock.

Senior NBS statistician Dong Lijuan explicitly linked the rise in factory-gate prices to the surge in global commodity and energy costs caused by the conflict, saying imported inflation had pushed up prices across multiple industrial sectors.

Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist Robin Xing said the country is still relatively better positioned than many peers.

“China fares better than its peers amid a sizable yet not extreme oil shock, given its energy fungibility and policy flexibility with low starting inflation,” Xing said.

That assessment rests on several structural cushions. China has extensive strategic petroleum reserves, diversified energy import routes, and a rapidly expanding renewable energy base that helps soften the pass-through from imported oil shocks. But it has failed to completely shield it from the mounting macro risks. Morgan Stanley has cut its 2026 China GDP growth forecast by 10 basis points to 4.7%, assuming oil averages $110 per barrel in the second quarter.

The downside scenario is more concerning. Should oil prices remain above $150 per barrel through the quarter, the bank estimates China’s growth could slow to 4.2%, a meaningful deceleration for an economy already contending with weak property activity, uneven consumer confidence, and external trade uncertainty.

Against the energy backdrop, a major policy dilemma is now emerging for Beijing. Headline inflation remains below the 2% level generally considered consistent with healthy domestic demand, which in normal circumstances would leave room for monetary easing. But the return of producer inflation complicates that calculus.

Global banks have already begun scaling back expectations for interest-rate cuts, with several now expecting the People’s Bank of China to keep benchmark rates unchanged this year as the oil shock clouds the inflation outlook. That means policymakers are increasingly caught between supporting growth and containing imported inflation.

Beijing has already started intervening at the retail fuel level. Earlier this week, China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, raised gasoline and diesel prices by 420 yuan and 400 yuan per metric ton, respectively, while deliberately keeping the increase below what the automatic pricing mechanism would normally require.

This follows even larger hikes last month. The strategy is to cushion households from the full shock while allowing some pass-through to industrial users. Yet that buffering itself may intensify margin pressure on manufacturers.

Economists are warning of what Tianchen Xu at the Economist Intelligence Unit described as “bad inflation”.

This is inflation driven by rising costs rather than rising demand, and it can be particularly painful for industrial firms already operating on thin margins.

The warning signs are visible in the data as the purchasing price index for raw materials, fuel, and power rose 0.8% year on year, outpacing the 0.5% increase in PPI. That means input costs are rising faster than the prices manufacturers are able to charge for finished goods.

Practically, factories are absorbing part of the shock. This threatens to erode the profit gains industrial firms recorded earlier in the year, when Beijing’s efforts to curb overcapacity and rein in price wars had briefly improved margins.

The March data is therefore telling two stories at once. On the surface, the end of a 41-month deflation streak may appear to signal improving industrial conditions. In reality, the inflation impulse is being driven externally by oil and commodity costs, not internally by stronger demand.

But a positive PPI driven by imported energy shocks is not necessarily evidence of economic recovery. Instead, it may signal the beginning of a more difficult phase for China’s economy, one in which growth slows even as inflationary pressures rise. In other words, policymakers may be facing an early form of stagflation risk.

The coming quarter will be critical as it will depend largely on whether oil markets stabilize and whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption eases. If not, analysts warn that China’s brief escape from deflation could quickly turn into a broader cost-push inflation cycle that weighs on both industry and growth.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency Advancing Plans to Reclassify Most Cryptocurrencies Including Bitcoin and Ethereum 

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Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has been advancing plans to reclassify most cryptocurrencies around 105 tokens, including Bitcoin and Ether as financial products or investment products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), moving them from the current Payment Services Act.

This shift would align crypto with stocks and bonds, introducing rules on disclosures, insider trading prohibitions, and stronger investor protections. Public consultations closed in February 2026. The FSA intends to submit the implementing bill to the Diet during the 2026 ordinary session. Related reforms include a proposed flat 20% capital gains tax on crypto and pathways for crypto ETFs potentially by 2028.

The bill has not yet been submitted or passed into law. Implementation, if approved, is targeted around 2027 for the regulatory shift with NFTs and certain stablecoins likely staying under existing rules. If enacted, the move would: Treat crypto more like traditional financial assets for regulatory and tax purposes.

Require mandatory disclosures and reserve reporting for exchanges. Apply insider trading and market abuse rules. Potentially boost institutional adoption in Japan which already has ~12 million crypto users and significant local custody volumes. This fits Japan’s broader pro-Web3 stance in recent years, including corporate tax relief on unrealized crypto gains and stablecoin approvals.

Aimed at competing with hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong while addressing fraud and transparency concerns. Japan’s crypto tax reforms represent a major policy shift aimed at treating cryptocurrencies more like traditional financial assets such as stocks and investment trusts rather than speculative or miscellaneous items. This is part of a broader effort by the Financial Services Agency (FSA) and the government to promote Web3 innovation, boost domestic trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency gains for individuals are classified as miscellaneous income under Japan’s Income Tax Act. This income is added to other earnings and taxed at progressive rates up to 55% including local taxes for high earners. Losses generally cannot be carried forward or offset against other income categories. This high effective rate has discouraged realizing gains, pushed some trading offshore, and been criticized as a barrier to growth.

For corporations, there were previously taxes on unrealized gains for certain crypto holdings, which acted as a startup killer by penalizing long-term holding. Some relief was introduced earlier. In December 2025, Japan’s ruling coalition released a 2026 tax reform outline. The core changes include: Flat 20% tax rate on gains from specified or registered crypto assets typically those listed on FSA-registered exchanges, such as major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum; around 105 tokens have been referenced in related regulatory discussions.

This aligns crypto with the taxation of equities and investment trusts. The rate is often described as approximately 20.315% when including local inhabitant taxes. Three-year loss carryforward: Investors can offset future crypto gains with prior losses for up to three years, similar to stocks. The favorable treatment applies primarily to spot trading, derivatives, and certain investment products involving specified crypto assets handled by registered Financial Instruments Business Operators.

Staking rewards, NFT income, or non-registered tokens may remain under different potentially miscellaneous income rules. These tax changes are tied to reclassifying most cryptocurrencies from the Payment Services Act focused on payments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). This shift brings: Stronger disclosures and issuer reporting. Insider trading and market abuse prohibitions.

Enhanced customer protections. Related bills expected to be submitted to the Diet. Targeted to take effect in 2026 for some elements with the full flat 20% rate and FIEA reclassification more likely aligning with enforcement around 2027–2028 effective January 1 of the year following key amendments. Spot crypto ETFs are anticipated around 2028, potentially includable in investment trusts with the new tax treatment.

As of now, the reforms are still in the legislative and proposal stage and have not been fully enacted into law. Exemptions from taxing unrealized gains on certain crypto holdings have already been expanded to encourage businesses to hold digital assets. Japan has approved yen-backed stablecoins for payments and settlements, supporting broader ecosystem growth.